Today (Apr. 17), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean futures fell on Thursday on weaker-than-expected export sales and concerns about diminished livestock feed demand for soybean meal after several U.S. meat processing plants had temporarily closed production due to the pandemic. Meal futures expand their early losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily decline by 10-30 yuan/tonne in thinner trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,910-3,160 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3160, Shandong 3100-3220, Jiangsu 3130-3160, Dongguan 2960-2970, and Guangxi 2910-2950.) Considerable crush margins on the DCE continue luring Chinese importers to buying up on soybeans, with 6 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans bought yesterday, and there will be a monthly average of nearly 10 mln tonnes of soybean vessels arriving in China from May-July. On that account, oil mills will pick up soybean crush to a normal level next week, and this will gradually add to soybean meal supply. Besides, the demand for meat products has also been hit by the pandemic. This curbs meal prices. However, a majority of mills are idle in northern regions, lowering down the quantity in delivery notes and also constraining the deliveries. And some feed mills also have to limit production for a lack of soybean meal. Hence, it will still take time to ease current supply tensions in spot market, which will help limit the decline in soybean meal prices. But with rising operation rates later, there will come the downside pressure in soybean oil market, especially those nearby basis and spot contracts of excessively high prices.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,300 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,800-13,100 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 14,000 yuan/tonne. Aquaculture has just got started in both northern and southern China, so the overall consumption of fishmeal is limited. In addition, downstream buyers are cautious now as fishmeal is at high prices. Port trading thus remains thin at present, which limits the upward space of fishmeal prices. However, President of Peru declared to extend the state of emergency till April 26th, as the pandemic is still sweeping all the world. It seems to be difficult for IMARPE to start anchovy production season on May 2. Moreover, port stocks available for sales are low, so that traders are stalling sales. On the whole, dominated by bullish factors, fishmeal market is predicted to maintain its strengthening trend in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 50,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 27,000 tonnes, Shanghai 31,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,500 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,470 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,700 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,470-1,520 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content steadily at 1,720 USD/tonne.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price declines today, of which it settles down 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,280-2,380 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,320, flat; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,330, down 20). Chinese buyers keep purchasing Brazilian soybeans due to the considerable crush margins of its futures, and the monthly arrival of soybeans at domestic ports may be as high as 9.8 mln tonnes from May to July. Moreover, soybean crushing mills will operate normally next week, which will ease the tight supply. Likewise, the coronavirus pandemic has greatly impacted global catering businesses, directly affecting demand for meats. Consequently, rapeseed meal prices are dragged down by these factors. However, rapeseed meal and soybean meal stocks are still stay at low levels, which may limit price declines of rapeseed meal. Buyers can take a wait-and-see attitude.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices mainly stay stable with partial fluctuations of 50-100 yuan/tonne. The demand for soybean meal may goes down due to the lower-than-expected exports and shutdown of U.S. meat factories amid the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. soybeans dropped further overnight. Besides, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange fall back after low opens, and spot soybean meal steadily down by 10-30 yuan/tonne. With tepid trading in cottonseed meal market, the price of cottonseed meal is depressed. Additionally, inland oil plants are passive in recovering the production and even have a plan of shutting down factories to overhaul recently. Furthermore, cottonseed price remains high with not much inventory, so manufacturers tend to prop up price under high cost. Nevertheless, the operation among soybean crushing mills will go back to normal next week, which will see an increase of soybean meal supply. Thus, cottonseed meal prices are still at risk in paring back.
(USD $1=CNY ¥7.07)