According to Cofeed, on the week as of Apr. 17, details of soybean stocks and soybean meal stocks and outstanding contracts in coastal regions are as follows:
Soybean: Soybean stocks fractionally decrease this week, as soybean crush picks up to 1.58 mln tonnes. In the week as of Apr. 17, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 2,381,900 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 238,500 tonnes by 9.10% from 2,620,400 tonnes last week and down by 36.18% from 3,732,500 tonnes of the same period last year. As soybean arrivals are lower than forecast, soybean stocks may still stay at a low level.
Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Soybean meal: Soybean meal stocks continue to reduce to a record low at least since 2011, as the overall soybean crush has not returned to a normal level in spite of a pickup. In the week ending Apr. 17, soybean meal stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions are 136,100 tonnes, down 23,600 tonnes by 14.78% from 159,700 tonnes last week and down by 80.60% from 701,800 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As soybean crush is forecast to be around 1.75 mln tonnes next week, soybean meal stocks may rally gradually. Besides, there will be a monthly average of nearly 10 mln tonnes of soybean vessels arriving in China from May-July, so the tight supply will follow to ease at that time.
Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Outstanding contracts: The amount of soybean meal in outstanding contracts continues to reduce this week. In the week as of Apr. 17, outstanding contracts in mills in domestic coastal regions hold 3,415,100 tonnes not delivered, down 528,400 tonnes by 8.82% from 3,943,500 tonnes last week yet up by 7.42% from 3,179,200 tonnes of the same period last year.
Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
