Today (Apr. 20), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Oilseeds:

Imported soybean: Imported soybean prices remain flat overall at port today. Soybean stocks are less than 10,000 tonnes at Shandong ports now, and domestic soybean prices still keep firm, both of which continue to bolster the market. However, considerable crush margins on the DCE continue luring Chinese importers to buying up on soybeans, with a total of 15 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans bought last week. There will be a monthly average of nearly 10 mln tonnes of soybean vessels arriving in China from May-July. Besides, several port traders turn willing to make delivery to book profits now. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, the market for imported soybeans is predicted to be little changed in the short term.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed price stays stable with a fluctuation of 0.01-0.02 yuan/kg. There is not much cottonseed left in the market, so traders are in no hurry to run out stocks and tend to prop up price. But the trading in cottonseed meal market is gloomy, slowing cottonseed oil delivery. With a poor market in cotton linter, inland oil mills reduce the operation rate and are not active in purchasing cottonseed. Besides, cottonseed market is dragged down by falls in meals. Therefore, it is predicted that short-term cottonseed price may fluctuate to adjust.

Summary: US soybean futures fell last Friday on dismal export sales and lower crude oil prices. But Malaysia has suspended some palm oil operations in its top-producing state of Sabah after virus infections spiked in farming villages, so palm oil futures are bolstered to move higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today. Meanwhile, DCE soybean oil futures swing to decline, as soybean crush rose 16% to 1.58 mln tonnes last week and may continue the uptrend to 1.75 mln tonnes and 1.85 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks, respectively. In the spot markets, soybean oil declines by 10-30 yuan/tonne and palm oil partially drops by 10-50 yuan/tonne. Spot trading is forecast to be tepid, while there will still be decent purchases on low-level forward basis. Chinese importers keep purchasing South American soybeans as gross crush margins for Brazilian soybeans still stay at 269-360 yuan/tonne for for April-July delivery, and there will be a monthly average of nearly 9.8 mln tonnes of soybean vessels arriving in China from May-July. Meanwhile, Malaysia has announced to delay its nationwide implementation of B20 mandate, Indonesian has seen dismal blending of biosiesel in the first quarter, and India has extended its nationwide lockdown till May 3rd; hence, the market is not optimistic about the demand for oils, which thus weighs on oil prices. However, due to continued operation rates for soybean crush in the previous weeks, weekly soybean oil stocks fell 12% to 900,000 tonnes last week, which helps curb the declines in price. Overall, the oil market is predicted to follow futures to fluctuate to adjust in the short term, and remains to be seen in the mid-to-long term. Buyers can wait for the moment.

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5640-5880 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, mostly down 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5880 (DCE Y2009+160/170) for May; Rizhao traders 5880; Zhangjiagang traders 5820; and Guangzhou traders 5640 (DCE Y2005+150) for May). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 4980-5230 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating by 10-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5220-5230, down 20; Rizhao traders 5220, up 20; Zhangjiagang traders 5100, up 20; Guangzhou traders 4980-5000,flat; and Xiamen not available). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil is stable with a slight rise in price today, of which it settles up partially 10 yuan at 7,030-7,080 yuan/tonne in coastal regions. (Fujian 7080; Guangdong not available, and Guangxi 7030, up 10.) Amid tensions between China and Canada, domestic rapeseed crush remains at a low level and rapeseed oil is also in tight supply; hence, oil mills are mainly signing forward contracts. In the week ending April 17th, rapeseed oil stocks fell 14.4% to 177,000 tonnes and soybean oil declined by 12% to 905,000 tonnes, which together bolster rapeseed oil market. However, crush margins for South American soybeans are still decent, and the monthly soybean arrivals at ports will average 9.8 mln tonnes from May-July. Soybean crush has returned to a normal level in the previous week and is predicted to stay at a relatively high level of 1.75 mln tonnes and 1.85 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, respectively. Meanwhile, the demand in domestic catering services has not recovered to a normal level, and extremely low crude oil prices have subdued global demand for biofuels. These may weigh on rapeseed oil prices. Rapeseed oil market may follow futures to swing in the short term, but remain to be seen in mid-to-long trend. Buyers can wait for the moment.

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil steadily decreases by 40-150 yuan/tonne today, while several traders raise the price by 50 yuan/tonne. Seeing an increase of 16% to 1.58 mln tonnes last week, the soybean crush is likely to rise to respectively 1.75 mln tonnes and 1.85 mln tonnes over the next two weeks, which is bearish for domestic market. Besides, soybean oil on Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) pares gains with fluctuation today, and spot soybean oil down by 10-30 yuan/tonne. Furthermore, the delivery of cottonseed oil has been slowed, and some prices follow to decline. But inland oil plants plan to shut down factories for an overhaul recently instead of operating as usual. Moreover, the price declines of cottonseed oil are limited by its low output and high cost as cottonseed is out of stock and pricey. Therefore, it is predicted that short-term cottonseed oil market may mainly fluctuate to adjust.