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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--4/23/2020

2020-04-23 www.cofeed.com
Today (Apr. 23), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures rose on Chinese purchases and in the wake bounces in crude oil prices. And meal futures extend gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices post a partial rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2900-3090 CNY/tonne today. (Tianjin 3090, Shandong 2980-3020, Jiangsu 2975-3010, Dongguan 2900-2920, and Guangxi 2900-2910.) Soybean meal stocks are extremely low at present, so that some mills are directly selling products in crushers. It is a sign that it will still take days to ease tight supplies, and some oil mills have even sold out May contracts. Mill tend to support meal prices, which helps prop up soybean meal market. However, considerable crush margins for Brazilian soybeans on the DCE continue luring Chinese importers to make purchases and there will be a monthly average of nearly 10 mln tonnes of soybean vessels arriving in China from May-July; hence, soybean crush will pick up to a relatively high level in coming two weeks. Distributors still have a strong sentiment to clear stocks with concerns over huge soybean cargoes arriving at ports. In addition, foodservices have been severely hit by the pandemic, so that hod and broiler prices keep falling due to a decline in the demand for meat products. Overall, soybean meal market is forecast to have little rebound impetus and also remain not optimistic in the mid-to-long trend.  Buyers can take hand-to-mouth basis.

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises in price today, of which it settles up 10-20 CNY/tonne at 2,280-2,370 CNY/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,360, up 30; Guangdong not available; Fujian 2,340, up 30). Due to the low level of rapeseed crush amid tensions between China and Canada, the inventories of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also stay at low levels, boosting rapeseed meal market. But the crush margins of soybean futures are considerable, attracting Chinese buyers to continue the purchase. Thus, the operation rate is about to pick up as soybean will arrive at ports in huge quantity from May to July. Meanwhile, soybean crush will rise to higher levels over the next two weeks, and soybean meal supply will gradually increase. In addition, the coronavirus pandemic has greatly impacted demand for meats, curbing price rises of rapeseed meal. On the whole, rapeseed market is likely to track futures to fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up price.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 13,200-13,300 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 14,000 CNY/tonne. Peruvian President has announced to extend the nationwide lockdown till May 10 in a bid to contain the spread of the COVID-19, and Imarpe has also delayed to release investigation results on fish resources till April 28; hence, the market forecast that there may be a further delay in starting fishing in the new season in north-centre oceans. In addition, port stocks of Super Prime fishmeal are of low levels in China at present, shoring up traders to stall sales. However, domestic consumption of fishmeal is small in the aquaculture, and downstream buyers remain cautious at current high prices; hence, the trading is subdued at ports. On the whole, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 53,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 25,000 tonnes, Shanghai 37,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,470 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,700 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,470-1,520 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content steadily at 1,720 USD/tonne. 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are stable today. Due to the good crush margins of soybean futures, the monthly arrival of soybeans will likely reach up to 9.8 mln tonnes from May to July, and soybean crush will rise to higher levels over the next two weeks. In this case, cottonseed meal will continue falling after easing the supply of soybean meal. Moreover, the downstream demand is weak now. Accordingly, cottonseed meal market confidence is hit by these factors. Furthermore, cottonseed price remains high with not much inventory. Additionally, U.S. soybeans rose last night as Chinese buyers took a purchase of U.S. sobyean and crude oil rebounded. Today, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange go up further, and spot soybean meal steadily up by 10-20 CNY/tonne. Thus, the price among cottonseed meal factories is steady tentatively. It is predicted that the operation rate among soyoil crushing mills will be back to higher levels, which may raise the risk of paring back for cottonseed meal price. Buyers can wait and see.

(USD $1=CNY ¥7.09)