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China Soybean Weekly Report -- As of Apr 24, 2020

2020-04-28 www.cofeed.com
I.Soybean

Price

Domestic soybean: While traders intend to clear stocks as Warmer weather in southern regions requires higher standard for soybean storage, downstream buyers are not active purchasing; hence, traders have to slightly lower down quotes amid thin trading in the market. However, local farmers have little surplus in hand and purchasing bodies just releases limited quantities into the market. Meanwhile, some traders have bought soybeans at high cost and are thus reluctant to sell at significantly lower prices. The tight supply outlook is bullish to the market. On the whole, in the absence of demand, domestic soybean market is predicted to stay stable with a weakening trend in the short run.

Imported soybean: Port soybean stocks fall below 10,000 tonnes, but China continues purchasing due to decent crushing margins for Brazilian soybeans on the DCE. And it is forecast that a monthly average of 9.8 mln tonnes of soybean vessels will arrive in China from May-July, and there are about 50,000 tonnes of soybeans for commercial crush expected to arrive at port late this month. Hence, soybean will be in growing supply. Meanwhile, downstream buyers are not active purchasing with adequate stocks in mills. Therefore, traders have slightly lowered down quotes amid lukewarm trading. Dominated by bearish factors, the market for imported soybeans is predicted to have some downside potential.








Crush: Oil mills continue picking up operation rates this week (Apr. 18-24), but the pickup is smaller than the forecast due to some delayed soybean vessels. Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,674,900 tonnes (meal 1,323,171 tonnes and oil 318,231 tonnes), up 92,500 tonnes or 5.84% from 1,582,400 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 48.24%, up 2.9% from 45.34% in the previous week. Soybean crush will continue to rise to around 1.75mln tonnes and 1.76 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, respectively. 

Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 6.72 mln tonnes in April at current utilization rate, above 6.5783 mln tonnes in the previous month and but below 7.1429 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year.

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 46,038,414 tonnes in the soybean crop year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 1,310,221 tonnes or 2.8% from 47,348,635 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 24,012,000 tonnes, down 18,5235 tonnes or 0.07% from 24,197,235 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019. 



Inventory: Soybean stocks slightly move higher in coastal regions this week, as mills have unloaded some cargoes. In the week as of Apr. 24, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 2,699,800 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 317,900 tonnes by 13.35% from 2,381,900 tonnes last week yet down by 27.58% from 3,728,000 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean stocks still stay at a low level due to lower-than-forecast imports in April, but will gradually mount higher with he arrivals from May to July.



Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 33 cargoes with 2.131 mln tonnes this week, a total of 85 cargoes with 5.474 tonnes for April so far. The import is predicted to be 104 cargoes with 6.82 mln tonnes for April, 9.8 mln tonnes for May, 9.8 mln tonnes for June, 9.6 mln tonnes for July, 8.5 mln tonnes for August and 7.5 mln tonnes for September. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

China's Customs:

China's Soybean Imports by Country (Mar, 2020)

Country/
Region

Mar, 2020

Mar, 2019

Y-O-Y

Qty.
(0,000 tonnes)

Unit Price
(USD/tonne)

Qty.
(0,000 tonnes)

Unit Price
(USD/tonne)

Qty.
(0,000 tonnes)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Ethiopia

0

一

0

一

0

一

Kazakhstan

0.03

472

0.33

485

-0.3

-13

China

0

一

0

一

0

一

Russia

11.57

339

8.17

334

3.4

5

Ukraine

0.45

432

0

一

0.45

一

Argentina

33.61

403

32.29

452

1.32

-49

Brazil

209.86

403

279.15

408

-69.29

-5

Uruguay

0

一

0

一

0

一

Canada

1.1

407

20.58

445

-19.48

-38

U.S.

171.17

401

151.09

401

20.08

0

Total

427.78

401

491.61

409

-63.83

-8

II.Soybean Meal

Price: Domestic soybean meal prices continue to decline this week (Apr. 20-24). As of this Friday, prices mostly settles down 10-80 yuan at 2,900-3,060 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 





Inventory: Soybean meal stocks make some increment this week as soybean crush continue pick up to 1.67 mln tonnes, but the overall stocks remain low. In the week ending Apr. 24, soybean meal stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions are 162,500 tonnes, up 26,400 tonnes by 19.40% from 136,100 tonnes last week yet down by 73.88% from 622,200 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As weekly soybean crush is forecast to be 1.75 mln tonnes in coming two weeks, soybean meal stocks may rally gradually. Besides, there will be a monthly average of nearly 10 mln tonnes of soybean vessels arriving in China from May-July, so the tight supply will follow to ease at that time.



China's Customs:

China's Soybean Meal Imports by Country (Mar, 2020)

Country/
Region

Mar, 2020

Mar, 2019

Y-O-Y

Qty.
(tonne)

Unit Price
(USD/tonne)

Qty.
(tonne)

Unit Price
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Denmark

2650

766

1450

771

1200

-5

U.S.

0

0

34.93

1006

-34.93

-1006

Netherlands

110

545

0

0

110

545

China

0

0

0

0

0

0

India

0

0

130.5

463

-130.5

-463

Total Qty.

2760

757

1615.43

751

1144.57

6

China's Soybean Meal Exports by Country (Mar, 2020)

Country/
Region

This Month

Y-O-Y

Qty.
(tonne)

Unit Price
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Japan

55250.19

362.21

8912.24

-24.30

Netherlands

1991.08

565.27

-1303.96

-15.97

UK

1685.94

566.27

-4364.48

0.17

Vietnam

1028.00

667.10

410.00

-0.70

Denmark

619.22

588.27

-9793.53

6.35

Italy

494.10

565.63

-493.38

-0.89

Sweden

443.60

592.78

-153.09

-22.94

Canada

420.00

583.00

120.00

3.00

South Korea

237.23

457.00

183.23

-171.07

Mongolia

152.18

426.27

119.70

24.18

Others

98.81

846.01

-6961.72

328.90

Total

62420.35

387.48

-13324.98

-68.28

III.Soybean Oil

Price: Domestic soybean oil prices further decline this week (Apr. 20-24). As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 5,610-5,750 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions, a decline of 70-220 yuan/tonne. 





Inventory: Soybean oil stocks continue declining this week. In the week ending Apr. 24, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 837,650 tonnes, down 66,800 tonnes by 7.39% from 904,450 tonnes last week, down 442,350 tonnes by 34.56% from 1,280,000 tonnes last month, and down 547,850 tonnes by 39.54% from 1,385,500 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,066,000 tonnes. 
 


China's Customs:

China's Soybean Oil Imports by Country (Mar, 2020)

Country/Region

This Month

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

Qty.
(tonne)

Unit Price
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Argentina

0

一

0

一

0

一

U.S.

13.48

2119.88

0

一

13.48

一

Brazil

0

一

0

一

0

一

Ukraine

18396.56

775.37

0

一

18396.56

一

Belarus

1009.38

765.33

0

一

1009.38

一

Russia

18261.83

784.46

2742.38

658.17

15519.45

126.29

Thailand

0

一

153.72

1150.00

-153.72

一

Italy

0

一

0

一

0

一

South Korea

0

一

0

一

0

一

North Korea

0

一

0

一

0

一

Vietnam

75.35

1009.36

76.04

996.55

-0.69

12.80

Taiwan, China

246.23

858.05

0

一

246.23

一

Malaysia

0

一

0

一

0

一

Netherlands

0

一

0

一

0

一

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0

一

0

一

0

一

Sweden

0

一

0

一

0

一

India

0

一

16

2500.00

-16

一

Canada

0

一

0

一

0

一

Paraguay

0

一

0

一

0

一

HK, China

0

一

0

一

0

一

France

0

一

0

一

0

一

Japan

0

一

2.191

1952.08

-2.191

一

Singapore

0

一

120.42

1293.82

-120.42

一

Austria

0

一

0

一

0

一

Spain

0

一

0.25

11616.00

-0.25

一

Turkey

0

一

0

一

0

一

Serbia

0

一

0

一

0

一

Greece

0

一

0

一

0

一

Kazakhstan

0

一

0

一

0

一

Israel

0

一

0

一

0

一

Germany

0

一

0.01

一

-0.01

一

TPKM

0

一

0

一

0

一

Poland

0

一

0

一

0

一

Lithuania

0

一

0

一

0

一

Total

38002.83

780.95

3111.01

726.72

34891.82

54.23

TPKM: Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu

China's Soybean Oil Exports by Country (Mar, 2020)

Country/Region

This Month

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

Qty.
(tonne)

Unit Price
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Japan

0

一

0

一

0

一

Singapore

475.34

1104.88

237.42

1165.23

237.92

-60.35

Myanmar

0

一

0

一

0

一

North Korea

4136.4

1028.79

7406.11

1099.12

-3269.71

-70.32

HK, China

1955.01

820.43

6242.04

740.41

-4287.03

80.02

Macao China

8.28

938.65

9.5

1086.63

-1.22

-147.98

Taiwan, China

0

一

0

一

0

一

Maldives

0

0

0

一

0

一

South Korea

37.94

1192.12

3018.1

727.45

-2980.16

464.67

Malaysia

4250.5

751.70

0

一

4250.5

一

Vietnam

0

一

214.22

786.36

-214.22

一

Angola

0

一

0

一

0

一

Niger

0

一

0

一

0

一

Mongolia

75.9

1009.33

0

一

75.9

一

Mozambique

0

一

0

一

0

一

Pakistan

0

一

0

一

0

一

Cook Islands

0

一

0

一

0

一

Sierra Leone

0

一

0

一

0

一

Bahamas

0

一

0.43

6546.51

-0.43

一

Bangladesh

0

一

0

一

0

一

Philippines

0

一

0

一

0

一

Italy

0

一

0

一

0

一

Australia

50.27

1349.61

0

一

50.27

一

Canada

40

970.00

0

一

40

一

New Zealand

0

一

0

一

0

一

Zimbabwe

0

一

0

一

0

一

Nigeria

0

一

0

一

0

一

Tunisia

0

一

0

一

0

一

Venezuela

0

一

0

一

0

一

Papua New Guinea

0

一

0

一

0

一

U.S.

0

一

0

一

0

一

Ethiopia

176

870.14

0

一

176

一

Indonesia

0

一

0

一

0

一

Total

11205.64

889.65

17127.82

900.03

-5922.18

-10.38
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