China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 17, 2020)

2020-04-28 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

As of this Friday (in the week ending April 24th), edible palm oil stock totals 528,400 tonnes at domestic ports, down 12.8% from 605,900 tonnes a week earlier; down 270,800 tonnes or 34% from 799,200 tonnes the same period last month; down 250,800 tonnes or 32% from 779,200 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 101,750 tonnes, down 1,400 tonnes or 1.3% from 103,150 tonnes last week.

It still sees less arrival of palm oil this week. And the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil has widened this week. As of this Friday, the price spread is 848 CNY/tonne, extending by 188 CNY/tonne from 660 CNY/tonne last week. As buyers still take a purchase on the dips, palm oil trading goes better at market lows. Additionally, edible palm oil stocks continue declining this week. But importers start to purchase successively due to better import margins, so edible palm oil stocks are likely to narrow in later period.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 tonne）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W17	W16	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W17	W16	Change
Tianjin Port	6.2	7.88	-1.68	-59.30%	-30.40%	3	2.6	0.4
Hebei	0.34	0.6	-0.26	-43.30%	142.80%	0.06	0.1	-0.04
Shandong Port	0.83	1.36	-0.53	-78.40%	-77.00%	0.285	0.515	-0.23
East China	19.4	21.5	-2.1	-25.50%	-25.70%	4.9	5.3	-0.4
Guangdong	21.95	23.99	-2.04	-13.60%	-33.60%	1.77	1.68	0.09
Guangxi	2.57	3.36	-0.79	23.56%	-42.00%	0.16	0.12	0.04
Fujian	1.55	1.9	-0.35	-67.02%	-58.10%	0	0	0
Total：	52.84	60.59	-7.75	34.00%	32.00%	10.175	10.315	-0.14

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for April this week is 320,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 200,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) and flat from last week; that for May is 320,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 200,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) unchanged with last week; that for June is 320,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 200,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) unchanged with last week.

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/tonne）	Duty Paid (CNY/tonne)	DCE (CNY/tonne)	Import Margin
4/20/2020	Jun, 2020	580	4947	4674	-273
4/20/2020	Aug, 2020	555	4737	4674	-63
4/20/2020	Oct, 2020	565	4821	4706	-115
4/20/2020	Nov, 2020	565	4821	4706	-115
4/22/2020	Jun, 2020	550	4701	4410	-291
4/22/2020	Sep, 2020	535	4575	4410	-165
4/22/2020	Aug, 2020	528	4516	4410	-106
4/23/2020	Jun, 2020	552.5	4721	4474	-247
4/23/2020	Aug, 2020	530	4532	4474	-58
4/24/2020	May, 2020	560	4784	4662	-122
4/24/2020	Jun, 2020	550	4700	4360	-340
4/24/2020	Nov, 2020	538.5	4604	4504	-100

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/tonne）	Duty Paid (CNY/tonne)	Qty. （0'000 tonne）
4/20/2020	0
4/21/2020	0
4/22/2020	9	May	555	4773	8.6
		Aug	522	4466	2.4
		Oct	523	4474	1.2
4/23/2020	6	Jun	540	4616	2.4
4/23/2020	6	Nov	529	4524	1.2
4/24/2020	0				3.6

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