Today (Apr. 28), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean futures closed lower on Monday in the wake of a 25% collapse in crude oil prices and a decline in corn futures on steady planting as well as on end-of-month positioning. And meal futures also move fractionally lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 CNY/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2880-3040 CNY/tonne today. (Tianjin 3040, Shandong 2955-2980, Jiangsu 2965-2980, Dongguan 2880-2900, and Guangxi 2880-2900.) China continues buying up on Brazilian soybeans due to generous crushing margins, and now it has also increased US soybean purchases. The monthly average of soybean arrivals at ports could reach an overwhelming level from May to July, of which May arrivals are forecast to be 9.87 mln tonnes. Hence, oil mills will pick up operation rates for soybean crush. On the other side, the demand for meat products gets affected as catering businesses are hit severely due to the spread of the coronavirus across the world, which has thus shaken the market confidence. Soybean meal is in thin trading recently, so that its weekly stocks increase by 19% to 160,000 tonnes. Distributors become willing to make shipments to book profits, which is a shock in soybean meal market. But it can still take time to ease soybean meal supplies in the spot market. Overall, as oil mills will raise soybean crush due to adequate crushing margins and huge soybean imports, soybean meal market will probably fluctuate to downside in the short run. Soybean meal futures prices are still resilient now for a spread of around 200 CNY/tonne lower than spot prices, but the spread may gradually narrow with growing spot supplies. Buyers can keep light stockpiles at the moment.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price stays stable with fluctuations today, of which it fluctuates by 10-40 CNY/tonne at 2,320-2,420 CNY/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,400, flat; Guangdong not available; Fujian 2,390, down 20). Chinese buyers keep purchasing soybean, driven by considerable crush margins of its futures. And the monthly arrival of soybeans at ports from May to July will likely reach an extremely high level, among which is 9.87 mln tonnes in May. In this case, soybean crush will rise to 1.75 mln tonnes over the next two weeks, leading a gradual increase in soybean meal supply. Nevertheless, foodservices are in under great impact of the coronavirus pandemic, affecting demand for meats directly. Accordingly, the price rises of rapeseed meal is curbed. But the operation rate among rapeseed crushing mills always stays at low levels amid continuous tensions between China and Canada. And rapeseed meal stocks continue decreasing. Same goes for soybean meal. Therefore, rapeseed meal price will not fall too much and likely fluctuate at a narrow range in the near term. Buyers had better remain cautious in chasing up price.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 13,200-13,300 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 14,000 CNY/tonne. Aquaculture has not been in full swing in northern China, so its fishmeal consumption is still limited. Downstream buyers do not take current prices as reasonable ones and thus just make few purchases. The thin trading at port is bearish to the market. However, as Peru will be in the state of emergency till May 10, the market is forecast that fish catches in the new season could continue to be postponed. In addition, high protein fishmeal is in tight supplies, so that traders are stalling sales, which is good to the market. On the whole, fishmeal market is predicted to have some upward potential in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 55,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 24,000 tonnes, Shanghai 38,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,470 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,700-1,720 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,470-1,520 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content steadily at 1,720-1,750 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady today. The pricey cottonseed, coupled with low operation rate in Shandong, lead factories to have a strong willingness to prop up price. Additionally, the coronavirus pandemic has greatly hit global foodservices, thereby affecting the demand for meats and striking meals market confidence. Moreover, soyoil mill raise the operation rate, driven by considerable crush margins and huge arrival of soybeans. Thus, cottonseed meal price is depressed by these factors and will likely fluctuate at a narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY ￥7.07)
