Today (May 6), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean futures closed higher on Tuesday, yet a decline of 2.5 cents from that before the May Day holiday. Meal futures moderately move higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. As distributors continue lowering down quotes as they rush to clear stocks, soybean meal spot prices steadily drop by 10-20 CNY/tonne from that before the May Day holiday in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2760-2870 CNY/tonne today. (Tianjin 2870, Shandong 2810-2880, Jiangsu 2810-2855, Dongguan 2760-2770, and Guangxi 2780-2830.) China have ramped up US soybean purchases and also keep on buying up Brazilian soybeans lured by crush. The monthly soybean arrivals will get near to 10 mln tonnes from May to July, which has brought much stress to the market. Hence, oil mills have picked up operation rates and soybean meal will ease its tight supplies. On the demand sides, global catering services have suffered heavy losses from the pandemic, thus leading to a huge decline in demand for meat products. And farmers also slow down their pace in increasing hog and poultry stocks as domestic pork, egg and broiler prices are all declining. Overall, soybean meal spot market is predicted to maintain a downtrend in the short run, even if there are rises in futures prices. Buyers can wait at the moment.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal grows in price today, of which it settles up 10-20 CNY/tonne at 2,280-2,370 CNY/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,330; Guangdong not available; Fujian 2,370, up 20). The operation rate among rapeseed crushing plants is still low amid tensions between China and Canada. Besides, the delivery of rapeseed meal becomes quicker as the aquaculture gradually enters into a peak season, which leads rapeseed meal stocks in coastal regions to down to 5,500 tonnes, with a decline of 21% from a week earlier. This has bolstered rapeseed meal market. On the other hand, Chinese buyers keep buying South American soybean, driven by decent crush margins of its futures. In this case, soybean will arrive at ports in huge quantity from May to July, among which it will reach 9.87 mln tonnes in May and an estimate of 10 mln tonnes in June. Consequently, soybean crush will keep rising in the coming two weeks, among which it will respectively rally to 1.82 mln tonnes this week and a super high level of 1.98 mln tonnes next week. Nevertheless, foodservices are still under great impact of the coronavirus pandemic, affecting demand for meats more. Accordingly, rapeseed meal price is curbed, and the upward space is still limited. Overall, the market will likely follow futures to fluctuate frequently. Buyers had better not chase up price too excessively.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 13,200-13,300 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 14,000 CNY/tonne. Sources said that Peru would announce to start its fishing activities in the new season on May 11, but market participants forecast that it will be a difficult task as the country is still under the impact of the COVID-19. And domestic traders are stalling sales due to low super prime fishmeal stocks, which is good to the market. However, aquaculture has not been in full swing in northern China, so its fishmeal consumption is still limited. Downstream buyers do not take current prices as reasonable ones and thus just make few purchases. The thin trading at port is bearish to the market. On the whole, fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 58,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 24,000 tonnes, Shanghai 38,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,470 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,700-1,720 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,470-1,520 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content steadily at 1,720-1,750 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices fluctuate by 10-100 CNY/tonne. The delivery price of Xinjiang cottonseed to inland goes up, and the operation rate among inland crushing mills is low, so they raise the price of cottonseed meal supported by cost and supply side. But the charge of nationwide toll roads has been resumed, depressing Xinjiang cottonseed meal price. Additionally, the coronavirus pandemic has greatly hit global foodservices, thereby affecting the demand for meats more and striking meals market confidence. Moreover, soyoil mills raise the operation rate, driven by considerable crush margins and huge arrival of soybeans. And some dealers who are anxious to clear out stocks continue reducing price, and spot soybean meal partly down by 50-80 CNY/tonne. Thus, the demand for cottonseed meal is battered by these factors. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal price will move sideways with fluctuations.
(USD $1=CNY ￥7.07)
