Today (May 7), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean futures fell on Wednesday, as the Trump administration blamed China for the novel coronavirus pandemic and threatened to impose additional tariffs on China. Meal futures swing fractionally higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 CNY/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2740-2850 CNY/tonne today. (Tianjin 2850, Shandong 2810-2840, Jiangsu 2790-2850, Dongguan 2740-2760, and Guangxi 2800-2820.) Abundant crushing margins for imported soybeans on the DCE keep attracting Chinese importers to make purchases, so the monthly soybean arrivals at domestic ports are forecast to get near to 10 mln tonnes from May to July. Oil mills have quickly picked up operation rates and soybean crush is predicted to get near to 2 mln tonnes next week; hence, soybean meal market will gradually ease supply tensions and oil mills have also lifted restrictions on delivery. On the demand sides, global catering services have suffered heavy losses from the pandemic, and farmers also slow down their pace in increasing hog and poultry stocks as domestic pork, egg and broiler prices are all declining. Soybean meal market has fallen into thin trading recently, so that its weekly stocks rose 10% to 170,000 tonnes. Overall, soybean meal prices will probably swing to move lower in the short run, and buyers can buy on immediate demand.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal grows in price today, of which it settles up 10-20 CNY/tonne at 2,300-2,390 CNY/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,330; Guangdong not available; Fujian 2,380, up 10). The operation rate among rapeseed crushing plants is still low amid tensions between China and Canada. Besides, the delivery of rapeseed meal becomes quicker as the aquaculture gradually enters into a peak season, which boosts rapeseed meal market. On the other hand, Chinese buyers keep purchasing soybeans, driven by decent crush margins. In this case, the arrival of imported soybean will reach an average of nearly 10 mln tonnes from May to July. Consequently, oil mills will gradually raise the operation rate, and soybean crush will likely be close to 2 mln tonnes next week, leading a gradual increase of soybean meal supply. Nevertheless, foodservices are still under great impact of the widespread of coronavirus pandemic, affecting demand for meats directly. And the price of pork, egg and broiler chick is trending down continually, which limits rapeseed meal price. In short, the upward momentum of rapeseed meal is still limited, so the overall market may follow futures to fluctuate at a narrow range.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 13,200-13,300 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 14,000 CNY/tonne. Sources said that Peru would announce to start its fishing activities in the new season on May 11, but market participants forecast that it would be postponed again as the country is still under the impact of the COVID-19. And domestic traders are stalling sales due to low super prime fishmeal stocks, which is good to the market. However, aquaculture has not been in full swing in northern China, so its fishmeal consumption is still limited. Meanwhile, downstream buyers do not take current prices as reasonable ones and thus just make small purchases. The thin trading at port is bearish to the market. On the whole, fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 56,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 23,000 tonnes, Shanghai 38,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,470 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,700-1,720 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,470-1,520 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content steadily at 1,720-1,750 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady with individual rises of 30 CNY/tonne. Less inventory of cottonseed coupled with rising freight, push up the delivery price of Xinjiang cottonseed, and the operation rate among inland oil mills is low. And meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) edges up with fluctuations today. Consequently, these are all offering support to cottonseed meal market. Additionally, the widespread of coronavirus pandemic has greatly hit global foodservices, so the price of pork, egg and broiler in China is declining continually, which strikes farmers’ positivity in recovering poultry population. In consequence, soybean meal stocks rise to 170,000 tonnes, an increase of 10% compared with a week earlier. Therefore, these factors are shaking market’s confidence. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal price may fluctuate to adjust.
(USD $1=CNY ￥7.09)
