China’s Soybean Crush Monthly (Apr, 2020)

2020-05-07 www.cofeed.com

Soybean crush in April in China

According to final detailed investigation and verification by Cofeed, soybean crush in oil mills in April totals 6,729,600 tonnes (meal 5,316,384 tonnes and oil 1,278,624 tonnes), up 151,300 tonnes by 2.29% from 6,578,300 tonnes in March, and down by 4.19% from 7,024,300 tonnes of the same period last year.

Soybean crush nationwide totals 47,464,300 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/2020 (from Oct. 1st, 2019), down 648,900 tonnes by 1.34% from 48,133,200 tonnes in 2018/2019. In calendar 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush totals 25,545,600 tonnes, up 689,900 tonnes by 2.77% from 24,855,700 tonnes in 2019.

Soybean Crush in April in China by Region (tonne)
Ranking	Region	1st-3rd	4th-10th	11st-17th	18th-24th	25th-30th	Total
1	Jiangsu	132500	311500	340500	338500	266000	1389000
2	Shandong	95600	245600	178400	217100	269600	1006300
3	Guangdong	65800	167700	231900	224600	178800	868800
4	Guangxi	25400	85000	199600	159800	169200	639000
5	Liaoning	47300	112200	143000	182800	143900	629200
6	Hebei	66000	149000	146000	157500	90000	608500
7	Fujian	40500	53900	96500	78500	57000	326400
8	Tianjin	41500	41500	31500	53000	105000	272500
9	Zhejiang	11700	29800	44800	44800	55400	186500
10	Henan	7800	34000	30000	33600	28800	134200
11	Sichuan	18200	24000	23800	24800	26400	117200
12	Hubei	10800	11500	25000	32400	30600	110300
13	Shaanxi	2000	18400	30800	30800	18400	100400
14	Jilin	12000	28000	8000	28000	8000	84000
15	Heilongjiang	5400	12600	12600	22600	16800	70000
16	Hunan	3000	17800	19600	14200	6000	60600
17	Anhui	6600	3600	9900	18900	16200	55200
18	Jiangxi	4500	10500	10500	10500	9000	45000
19	Shanghai	0	0	0	2500	15000	17500
20	Chongqing	0	0	0	0	9000	9000
21	Inner Mongolia	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	Xinjiang	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Shanxi	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Total	596600	1356600	1582400	1674900	1519100	6729600
Remarks: Above is the final data after verification.

Soybean imports in China

China’s Customs: Soybean Imports in China by Month (0’000 tonnes)

M/Y	2019	2020
Jan	737.70	783.83
Feb	446.00	567.60
Mar	492.00	427.78
Apr	764.00	642.90
May	736.00	986.50
Jun	651.32	1000.00
Jul	864.03	960.00
Aug	948.07	850.00
Sept	819.66	750.00
Oct	618.14
Nov	827.76
Dec	954.24
Total	8858.92	6968.61

Remarks: Imports from April to September in 2020 were surveyed and estimated by Cofeed

China imported 4,277,800 tonnes of soybeans in March, down by 638,300 tonnes or 12.98% from 4,916,100 tonnes the same period last year, according to China’s customs. And China’s soybean imports totaled 17,792,100 tonnes from January to March, increased by 1,043,800 tonnes or 6.23% from 16,748,300 tonnes the previous year. In view of supplier, from January to March, China imported 7.8136 mln tonnes of soybeans from U.S., grew by 5.259 mln tonnes or 205.86% from 2.5546 mln tonnes in the previous year; China imported 7.2386 mln tonnes of soybeans from Brazil, down 2.4719 mlnn tonnes by 25.46% from 9.7105 mln tonnes the same period last year; China imported 2.1387 mln tonnes of soybeans from Argentina, a decrease of 10,400 tonnes or 0.48% from 2.1491 mln tonnes a year earlier.

China is expected to receive 151 cargoes totaling 9.865 mln tonnes of imported soybeans at ports in May, according to Cofeed. Given the decent crush margins of Brazilian soybeans, Chinese crushing mills purchase and load a large number of them. And the monthly shipping weight of Brazilian soybeans heading to China maintains around 10 mln tonnes in March and April. According to latest soybean vessel lineups, soybean arrivals in June forecast at 10 mln tonnes, which is up 200,000 tonnes from last week. Likewise, the initial estimate for July is 9.6 mln tonnes; 8.5 mln tonnes in August; 7.5 mln tonnes in September. Based on above estimate, China’s soybean imports are projected to be 93,727,500 tonnes in 2019/2020 (October-September, 2019/20), an increase of 10,932,600 tonnes or 13.20% from 82,794,900 tonnes that surveyed last year. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.

Monthly carryover stocks at ports in China

Soybean stocks had risen in April due to an increase of arrivals. By the end of April, domestic imported soybean stocks totaled 3,767,300 tonnes, up by 220,200 tonnes or 6.2% from 3,547,100 tonnes in March and down by 20.15% from 4,718,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And soybean stocks will gradually rise in later period as a result of huge arrivals from May to July.

Soybean crush margins

Soybean Crush Margins in China (CNY/tonne)
Date	U.S. soybean	Brz. soybean	Arg. soybean	Distributed	Domestic
Apr. 1	386	570	474	-105	-433
Apr. 2	411	595	497	-135	-436
Apr. 3	414	607	460	-133	-428
Apr. 7	397	440	590	-165	-532
Apr. 8	409	576	450	-166	-532
Apr. 9	441	611	478	-138	-516
Apr. 10	448	617	482	-107	-508
Apr. 13	477	648	512	-83	-505
Apr. 14	454	619	492	-128	-575
Apr. 15	470	507	609	-134	-575
Apr. 16	469	608	503	-138	-588
Apr. 17	464	629	500	-158	-593
Apr. 20	433	615	467	-195	-615
Apr. 21	331	511	366	-312	-644
Apr. 22	282	460	317	-347	-642
Apr. 23	311	489	352	-407	-933
Apr. 24	309	508	331	-407	-973
Apr. 26	301	500	338	-438	-973
Apr. 27	278	475	315	-469	-1024
Apr. 28	294	465	356	-485	-1024
Apr. 29	294	464	360	-494	-1030
Apr. 30	242	405	308	-536	-1070

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