Today (May 8), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures rebounded on Thursday, as China resumed corn and soybean purchases and weather forecasts showed that sub-freezing temperatures would appear across the U.S. agricultural belt. But meal futures keep range-bound on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 CNY/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2740-2850 CNY/tonne today. (Tianjin 2850, Shandong 2800-2830, Jiangsu 2805-2850, Dongguan 2740-2760, and Guangxi 2800-2810.) China has been seeing decent crushing margins for imported soybeans on the DCE for months, which stimulates domestic crushers to keep on purchasing. Soybean imports will be at an overwhelming level form May to July, with May at 9.87 mln tonnes and June at 10 mln tonnes, according to latest data surveyed by Cofeed. Given this, oil mills have rapidly raised operation rates, probably sending soybean crush toward 2 mln tonnes next week. Soybean meal stocks have started an uptrend and oil mills have also lifted restrictions on delivery. But on the demand side, the coronavirus pandemic has punched catering businesses, so that farmers are slow in making livestock and poultry replenishment due to declining prices. As a result, soybean meal has fallen into thin trading in the past few days, and distributors are in a rush for clearing stocks. Overall, soybean meal spot prices are forecast to fluctuate to downside in the short run, and buyers can stay on the sidelines or take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal grows in price today, of which it settles up 10 CNY/tonne at 2,270-2,400 CNY/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi not available; Guangdong 2,270; Fujian 2,390, up 10). Several mills in Guangdong made some deals on the low-level basis of RM09-160 with limited volumes, Oct-Jan deliveries. The operation rate among rapeseed crushing plants is always low amid tensions between China and Canada. Besides, the delivery of rapeseed meal becomes quicker as the aquaculture gradually enters into a peak season, so rapeseed meal inventories in coastal areas are low, which leads rapeseed meal market to be more resilient than soybean meal. On the other hand, the monthly arrival of imported soybean will reach nearly 10 mln tonnes from May to July, causing tremendous pressure from ports to emerge. Nevertheless, oil mills will gradually raise the operation rate, and soybean crush will likely be close to 2 mln tonnes next week, seeing a gradual increase of soybean meal supply. In addition, foodservices are still under great impact of the widespread of coronavirus pandemic, affecting demand for meats directly. And dealers prefer locking in profits. With soybean meal price weakening, rapeseed meal price is still dragged down to mainly fluctuate in a short term. Buyers can stay on the sideline.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 13,200-13,300 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 14,000 CNY/tonne. Peru’s Minister of Labor and Employment Promotion requested that people over the age of 60 with obesity or pre-existing diseases cannot return to work until the end of the pandemic, which is still severe in the country, so fishing in the new season will continue to be under impact. And domestic traders are stalling sales due to low super prime fishmeal stocks, which is good to the market. However, aquaculture has not been in full swing in northern China, so its fishmeal consumption is still limited. Meanwhile, downstream buyers do not take current prices as reasonable ones and thus just make small purchases. The thin trading at port is bearish to the market. On the whole, fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 57,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 23,000 tonnes, Shanghai 38,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,470 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,700-1,720 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,470-1,520 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content steadily at 1,720-1,750 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady today. Less inventory of cottonseed coupled with rising freight, push up the delivery price of Xinjiang cottonseed, and the operation rate among inland oil mills is low. Consequently, these are all offering support to cottonseed meal market. Additionally, the widespread of coronavirus pandemic has greatly hit global foodservices, so the price of pork, egg and broiler in China is declining continually, which strikes farmers’ positivity in recovering poultry population. Moreover, the operation rate among soyoil mills rapidly rises to high levels. Therefore, these factors are shaking cottonseed meal market’s confidence. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal price may fluctuate to adjust.
(USD $1=CNY ￥7.08)
