Cofeed: China Soybean Supply and Demand Estimates (May, 2020)

2020-05-08 www.cofeed.com

China Soybean Supply and Demand Estimates (Oct-Sept)
Item/Year	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20		2020/21
(0,000 tonnes)	Est.	Est.	Est.	Apr Proj.	May Proj.	May Proj.
Beginning Stocks	1294	1384	1559	1289	1289	1739
Domestic Production	1265	1485	1590	1600	1600	1650
Imports	9220	9411	8280	9250	9330	9600
Total Supply	11779	12280	11429	12139	12219	12989

Crush: of which	8800	8986	8500	8730	8730	9000
Domestic Soybeans	137	200	210	210	210	250
Imported Soybeans	8663	8786	8290	8520	8520	8750
Exports	15	15	15	15	15	15
Seeds	60	70	75	85	85	85
Food & Industrial Consumption	1520	1650	1550	1650	1650	1700
Total Use	10395	10721	10140	10480	10480	10800

Ending Stocks	1384	1559	1289	1659	1739	2189
Stock-to-use Ratio	0.1331	0.1454	0.1271	0.1583	0.1659	0.2027

Imported Soybean Supply and Demand Estimates by Month (0’000 tonnes)
Year	Est.	Beginning Stocks	Imports & Reserve Output	Input into Reserves	Total Supply	Crushing	Food & Extruded	Total Use	Ending Stocks
2019	Jan	645	650		1295	687	10	697	598
	Feb	598	400		998	364	54	418	580
	Mar	580	602	-20	1162	688	24	712	450
	Apr	450	811	-30	1231	700	21	721	510
	May	510	800	0	1310	762	12	774	536
	Jun	536	795	-26	1305	730	50	780	525
	Jul	525	930	-89	1366	661	47	708	658
	Aug	658	862	-108	1412	748	22	770	642
	Sept	642	797	-80	1359	740	60	800	559
	Oct	559	740	-120	1179	660	65	725	454
	Nov	454	790	-70	1174	693	46	739	435
	Dec	435	950	-70	1315	765	10	775	540
2020	Jan	540	718	-80	1178	580	59	639	539
	Feb	539	602	-30	1111	620	10	630	481
	Mar	481	533	-10	1004	638	16	654	350
	Apr	350	743	-10	1083	653	10	663	420
	May	420	950	-70	1300	800	20	820	480
	Jun	480	950	-70	1360	800	30	830	530
	Jul	530	930	-50	1410	770	40	810	600
	Aug	600	880	-30	1450	791	20	811	639
	Sept	639	797	-30	1406	750	30	780	626

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