Today (May 12), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures closed further higher on Monday on good export data and as frost in parts of the belt during the weekend might have damage soybean crops. But meal futures expand their early losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices go down by 20-40 CNY/tonne in tepid trading and settle at 2660-2820 CNY/tonne today. (Tianjin 2820, Shandong 2750-2770, Jiangsu 2750-2800, Dongguan 2660-2710, and Guangxi 2740-2800.) Brazil’s soybean shipments heading for China totaled 3.93 mln tonnes as of May 11, so May shipments may reach 10 mln tonnes for a third consecutive month at such rates. Numerous vessels loaded with soybeans will arrive in China during May-July, so that mills are expected to pick up weekly soybean crush to nearly 2 mln tonnes both this week and next week. Weekly soybean meal stocks have jumped higher by 70% to 300,000 tonnes in the week ending May, which helps ease tight supplies in the market. Meantime, soybean meal market has been in light trading after the May Day vacation, as catering businesses are reeling under the coronavirus pandemic. Distributors in Guangdong even lowered down basis quotes to M09-70 (2670 CNY/tonne) yesterday, as they were in a rush to clear stocks. Soybean meal market is predicted to fluctuate with a weakening trend, and buyers can stay on the sidelines at the moment.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down 40-50 CNY/tonne at 2,240-2,340 CNY/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi not available; Guangdong 2,290; Fujian 2,320, down 50). The monthly soybean arrivals will reach up to nearly 10 mln tonnes from May to July, and soybean crush will rise to an extremely high level of 2 mln tonnes over the next two weeks, causing a consecutive rally in soybean meal stocks. Last week, soybean meal inventory in coastal regions increased by 70% to 300,000 tonnes. On the other hand, the widespread of coronavirus pandemic has severely hit global catering services, impacting demand for meats directly. Consequently, the factors above are bearish for rapeseed meal price and drag down price to fall. Buyers can make small replenishment upon low and stable price.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 13,200-13,300 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 14,000 CNY/tonne. Aquaculture has not been in full swing in China, so its fishmeal consumption is still limited. Meanwhile, downstream buyers do not take current prices as reasonable ones and thus just make small purchases. The thin trading at port is bearish to the market. However, domestic traders are still waiting for fresh cues as fish catches in the new season in Peru may be affected when the coronavirus remain severe in this country. On the whole, fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 55,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 23,000 tonnes, Shanghai 37,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,500 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,700-1,720 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,470-1,520 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content steadily at 1,720-1,750 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices mainly keep steady and rise by 50 CNY/tonne in several regions today. Cottonseed is pricey due to supply shortages, so cottonseed meal price remains high supported by the cost. And most of oil mills in Xinjiang have no inventory of cottonseed meal, and some factories raise the price of Xinjiang cottonseed. Additionally, Brazilian soybean heading to China will likely reach the high of 10 mln tonnes for the third consecutive month in May. Moreover, large quantity of imported soybean has just begun to arrive at ports successively, which will last until July. And soybean crush may almost equal to 2 mln tonnes this and next week. Meanwhile, soybean meal stocks have increased to 300,000 tonnes, with a rise of 70% from the previous week, shaking cottonseed meal market’s confidence. Besides, the price of cottonseed meal is not cost-effective as it has overtaken soybean meal, so the trading goes not well. Thus, cottonseed meal price is curbed by these factors. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal price may fluctuate to adjust.
(USD $1=CNY ￥7.09)
