Today (May 13), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: The USDA in its May report lowered old crop exports by 100 million bushels, leading to a higher-than-expected increase in old crop ending stocks, so U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday. Meal futures swing slightly lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily go down by 10-30 CNY/tonne in tepid trading and settle at 2650-2790 CNY/tonne today. (Tianjin 2790, Shandong 2730-2770, Jiangsu 2735-2760, Dongguan 2650-2710, and Guangxi 2720-2740.) A picture where monthly soybean imports will get near to 10 mln tonnes in May-July has already been rolling out, so that oil mills have briskly picked up operation rates and weekly soybean crush is expected to hit nearly 2 mln tonnes both this week and next week. Weekly soybean meal stocks have jumped higher by 70% to 300,000 tonnes in the week ending May 8, a sign that the tight supply has been easing. In addition, soybean meal market has descended to thin trading for weeks due to declining prices of livestock and poultry products since global food services are reeling under the pandemic. Soybean meal stocks will be rising, which shocks the prices. Overall, short-term soybean meal prices will probably fluctuate with a weakening trend, and buyers can wait or take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines slightly in price today, of which it partly settles down 10 CNY/tonne at 2,240-2,340 CNY/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi not available; Guangdong 2,290; Fujian 2,320, flat). The monthly soybean arrivals will reach up to nearly 10 mln tonnes from May to July. Based on this, the operation rate gradually picks up and soybean crush may hit an extremely high level of 2 mln tonnes this and next week, causing a consecutive rally in soybean meal stocks. On the other hand, the widespread of coronavirus pandemic has severely stricken global catering services, impacting demand for meats directly. Consequently, the price of pork, egg and broiler keeps falling, which dampens rapeseed meal price. But rapeseed meal crush stays at low level amid tensions between China and Canada. Likewise, the aquaculture has entered into a peak season. Therefore, the price declines of rapeseed meal will be limited tentatively. Buyers can stay on the sideline and make small replenishment upon low and stable price.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 13,200-13,300 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 14,000 CNY/tonne. Peru's lockdown has been extended until May 24, and only 60% of fishermen will be working when the new fishing season starts on May 13. The fishing prospect may be subject to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic in this country. Traders in China continue staying on the sidelines, which helps support the market. However, aquaculture has not been in full swing in China, so its fishmeal consumption is still limited. Meanwhile, downstream buyers do not take current prices as reasonable ones and thus just make small purchases. The thin trading at port is bearish to the market. On the whole, fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 55,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 22,000 tonnes, Shanghai 37,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,500 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,700-1,720 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,470-1,520 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content steadily at 1,720-1,750 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices mainly keep steady and rise by 20 CNY/tonne in several regions today. Cottonseed is pricey due to supply shortages, so cottonseed meal price remains high supported by the cost. And most of oil mills in Xinjiang have no inventory of cottonseed meal, so some factories raise the price of Xinjiang cottonseed amid tight supply. Additionally, large quantity of imported soybean has just begun to arrive at ports successively, which will last until July. And the monthly arrival will reach up to 10 mln tonnes from May to July. In this case, soybean crush may almost equal to 2 mln tonnes this and next week. Meanwhile, soybean meal stocks have increased to 300,000 tonnes, with a rise of 70% from the previous week. Besides, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange fluctuate to edge down, and spot soybean meal steadily declines by 10-30 CNY/tonne, striking cottonseed meal market’s confidence. Likewise, the price of cottonseed meal is not cost-effective as it has overtaken soybean meal, so the trading goes not well. Thus, cottonseed meal price is curbed by these factors. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal price may continue to adjust with fluctuations.
(USD $1=CNY ￥7.09)
