Today (May 14), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures sharply closed lower on Wednesday on a quick pace in soybean planting and an abundant production outlook, as well as the bearish USDA monthly report. And meal futures fall further on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily go down by 20-60 CNY/tonne in tepid trading and settle at 2600-2740 CNY/tonne today. (Tianjin 2740, Shandong 2670-2730, Jiangsu 2680-2690, Dongguan 2600-2630, and Guangxi 2670-2690.) A picture where monthly soybean imports will get near to 10 mln tonnes in May-July has already been rolling out, so that oil mills have briskly picked up operation rates. Weekly soybean meal stocks have jumped higher by 70% to 300,000 tonnes in the week ending May 8, a sign that the tight supply has been easing. In addition, soybean meal market has descended to thin trading for weeks due to declining prices of livestock and poultry products since global food services are reeling under the pandemic. Distributors have been in panic selling, so that they have lowered down prices more than oil mills. In the absence of bullish factors, short-term soybean meal prices will probably fluctuate with a weakening trend, and buyers can wait or take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 13,200-13,300 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 14,000 CNY/tonne. The proportion of juvenile fishes was found to exceed the maximum in centre-north oceans of Peru, so that a five-day fishing ban from May 14th-18th is declared. In addition, the coronavirus pandemic is still severe in Peru. Therefore, traders in China are negative about fishing in this season, which helps prop up sentiment in fishmeal prices. However, a neutral level of Peru’s fishing quota at 2.413 mln tonnes in the new season is still working in the market, so that actual trading prices are somewhat loosen in the fishmeal market at ports in China. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable with a weakening trend in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 55,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 22,000 tonnes, Shanghai 37,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,500 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,720-1,750 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,470-1,520 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content steadily at 1,720-1,750 USD/tonne.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it partly settles down 10-30 CNY/tonne at 2,230-2,320 CNY/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi not available; Guangdong 2,280, down 10; Fujian 2,300, down 20). The monthly soybean arrivals will reach up to nearly 10 mln tonnes from May to July. Based on this, oil plants promote the operation rate and soybean crush may hit an extremely high level of 2 mln tonnes this and next week, causing a consecutive rally in soybean meal stocks. On the other hand, the widespread of coronavirus pandemic has severely stricken global catering services, impacting demand for meats directly. Consequently, rapeseed meal price is dampened by these factors. In addition, the tensions between China and Canada have yet to be eased, the relations between China and Australia become strained as well. And rumor has it that the import of Australian rapeseed will also be impacted. Likewise, rapeseed crush stays at low levels. So does the rapeseed meal inventory. Therefore, the price declines of rapeseed meal will be limited tentatively, and the price may fluctuate weakly in a short term. Buyers can stay on the sideline and make small replenishment upon low and stable price.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices mainly keep steady and decline by 50 CNY/tonne in several regions today. Large quantity of imported soybean has just begun to arrive at ports successively, with nearly 10 mln tonnes of monthly arrival from May to July. In this case, the operation rate among crushing mills improves rapidly, and soybean meal stocks keep rising and have increased to 300,000 tonnes, with a sharp rise of 70% from the previous week. Thus, the tight supply almost has been eased. Besides, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange fall back after low opens, and spot soybean meal steadily down by 20-60 CNY/tonne, and cottonseed meal follows the decline in several regions. However, cottonseed is pricey due to supply shortages, so cottonseed meal price remains high supported by the cost. And most of oil mills in Xinjiang have no inventory of cottonseed meal, so some factories raise the price of Xinjiang cottonseed amid short supply, which bolsters cottonseed meal market tentatively. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal price may continue to adjust with fluctuations.
(USD $1=CNY ￥7.09)
