China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 20, 2020)

2020-05-19 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

In the week ending May 15, edible palm oil stock to totals 443,200 tonnes at domestic ports, down 9.3% from 488,600 tonnes a week earlier; down 162,700 tonnes or 26.85% from 605,900 tonnes the same period last month; down 373,900 tonnes or 45.76% from 817,100 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 93,650 tonnes, down 4,030 tonnes or 4.1% from 97,680 tonnes last week.

There are less cargoes of palm oil arriving at ports. Although the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil in China has narrowed, it still remains high. As of this Friday, the price spread is 698 CNY/tonne, narrowing by 150 CNY/tonne from 848 CNY/tonne last Friday. Besides, many buyers all tend to enter into market due to a rise in palm oil futures at home and abroad. Accordingly, palm oil trade obviously goes better this week, which totals 43,150 tonnes with an increase of 31,090 tonnes or 258% compared with 12,060 tonnes last week. As importers purchase palm oil continually, the falls of palm oil stocks are predicted to slow down in later period.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 tonne）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W20	W19	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W20	W19	Change
Tianjin Port	6.7	6.17	0.53	-14.98%	-61.05%	2.4	2.6	-0.2
Hebei	0.1	0.27	-0.17	-83.33%	-60.00%	0.18	0.21	-0.03
Shandong Port	2.26	1.87	0.39	66.20%	-54.25%	0.675	0.725	-0.05
East China	15.05	15.75	-0.7	-30.00%	-49.95%	4.35	4.55	-0.2
Guangdong	16.93	20.52	-3.59	-29.43%	-26.87%	1.52	1.5	0.02
Guangxi	1.28	1.88	-0.6	-61.90%	-48.80%	0.24	0.183	0.057
Fujian	2	2.4	-0.4	5.26%	-44.44%	0	0	0
Total：	44.32	48.86	-4.54	-26.85%	-45.76%	9.365	9.768	-0.403

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, palm oil imports in May forecast at 420,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 300,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) and flat from last week; that for June is 370,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 250,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) unchanged with last week; that for July is 370,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 250,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) with no change from last week.

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/tonne）	Duty Paid (CNY/tonne)	DCE (CNY/tonne)	Import Margin
5/6/2020	Jun, 2020	525	4493	4342	-151
5/6/2020	Jul, 2020	510	4367	4342	-25
5/6/2020	Sep, 2020	510	4367	4342	-25
5/6/2020	Aug, 2020	510	4367	4342	-25
5/6/2020	Nov, 2020	532	4552	4502	-50
5/7/2020	Jun, 2020	522.5	4477	4342	-135
5/7/2020	Sep, 2020	515	4414	4342	-72
5/7/2020	Nov, 2020	525	4498	4528	30
5/8/2020	Jun, 2020	525	4484	4378	-106
5/8/2020	Jul, 2020	517.5	4421	4378	-43
5/8/2020	Sep, 2020	517.5	4421	4378	-43
5/8/2020	Aug, 2020	517.5	4421	4378	-43
5/11/2020	Jun, 2020	535	4572	4410	-162
5/11/2020	Jul, 2020	530	4530	4410	-120
5/11/2020	Sep, 2020	530	4530	4410	-120
5/11/2020	Aug, 2020	530	4530	4410	-120
5/12/2020	Jun, 2020	525	4496	4338	-158
5/12/2020	Jul, 2020	525	4496	4338	-158
5/12/2020	Sep, 2020	525	4496	4338	-158
5/12/2020	Aug, 2020	520	4454	4338	-116
5/12/2020	Oct, 2020	525	4496	4506	10
5/13/2020	Jun, 2020	520	4452	4398	-54
5/13/2020	Jul, 2020	520	4452	4398	-54
5/13/2020	Sep, 2020	520	4452	4398	-54
5/13/2020	Aug, 2020	514	4402	4398	-4
5/13/2020	Oct, 2020	520	4452	4570	118
5/14/2020	Jun, 2020	520	4456	4372	-84
5/14/2020	Aug, 2020	525	4498	4372	-126
5/14/2020	Oct, 2020	520	4456	4526	70
5/15/2020	Jul, 2020	525	4500	4494	-6
5/15/2020	Aug, 2020	530	4542	4494	-48
5/15/2020	Oct, 2020	534	4576	4632	56
5/15/2020	Nov, 2020	539	4618	4632	14

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/tonne）	Duty Paid (CNY/tonne)	Qty. （0'000 tonne）
5/11/2020	2	Sep	521	4451	1.2
5/11/2020	2	Nov	529	4518	1.2
5/12/2020	2	Sep	515	4413	1.2
5/12/2020	2	Nov	518	4438	1.2
5/13/2020	6	Jun	520	4452	1.2
		Jul	510	4368	1.2
		Sep	513	4394	1.2
		Sep	515	4410	1.2
		Sep	513	4394	1.2
		Oct	519	4443	1.2
5/15/2020	2	Jun	527	4517	2.4

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