Today is 05/07/2021

Daily Review on Meal Market in China--5/19/2020

Today (May19), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures extended gains on Monday, and meal futures slightly swing on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 CNY/tonne with fewer deals and some low-level purchases, and settle at 2610-2740 CNY/tonne today. (Tianjin 2740, Shandong 2660-2680, Jiangsu 2630-2670, Dongguan 2610-2620, and Guangxi 2610-2680.) China purchased 18-21 cargoes or about 1.2 mln tonnes of U.S. soybeans last week, and may continue signing deals, according to market sources. Meanwhile, monthly soybean imports are expected to get near to 10 mln tonnes from May to July in China, and its weekly soybean crush is also forecast to hit 2 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks. Weekly soybean meal stocks already rose by 20% to 370,000 tonnes at the end of last week. Besides, as global catering services are crippling under the coronavirus pandemic, livestock and poultry products markets are weakening, and farmers thus lack of enthusiasm making replenishment. These are bearish to meal prices. Going ahead, participants can keep an eye on weather in the US crop belt. The weather is not a concern at present, so that soybean meal has little upward impetus and DCE meal futures also slow down gains today. Soybean meal market is predicted to fluctuate with a weakening trend. The market usually starts to speculate on weather conditions from mid-to-late June and reaches a peak in August. Buyers now are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips, but not to chase after excessively high prices.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal fluctuates in price today, of which it fluctuates by 10-20 CNY/tonne at 2,240-2,340 CNY/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi not available; Guangdong 2,310, up 20; Fujian 2,340, up 30). With monthly arrival of nearly 10 mln tonnes of soybeans from May to July, the stocks of soybean oil and soybean meal keep rising. And soybean crush may be as high as 2 mln tonnes this week. However, the widespread of coronavirus pandemic has hammered global food services, leading to a downward trending of animal products prices. Thus, farmers are not active in recovering poultry population, and rapeseed meal price is dragged down. Likewise, the tensions between China and Canada have yet to be eased, the relations between China and Australia become strained as well, which may cause a tight supply of rapeseed. And rapeseed crush remains low. Moreover, the aquaculture has entered into a peak season, limiting the price declines of rapeseed meal. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal market is projected to fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can make small replenishment upon low and stable price.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with a partial decline today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,500-12,000 CNY/tonne, down 300 CNY/tonne from yesterday; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,300 CNY/tonne, down 100-200 CNY/tonne from yesterday; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,700-12,800 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,700-13,800 CNY/tonne. A high proportion of juvenile fishes led to a five-day fishing ban just at the very start of the new season in Peru, and the country is still in the state of emergency due to the coronavirus pandemic, casting doubts about fishing activities in the new season. Traders in China tend to stay on the sideline, which helps domestic fishmeal market stay stable. However, the market is still affected by a neutral-level fishing quotas in the new season in Peru. And in view of high prices and dismal demand, feed mills are cautious in purchasing. Given this, some port traders have begun to slightly lower down prices. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to steady with slight declines in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 54,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 22,000 tonnes, Shanghai 40,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,530-1,540 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,760 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,470-1,520 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content steadily at 1,720 USD/tonne. 
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady today. There are nearly 10 mln tonnes of soybeans arriving at ports each month from May to July. In this case, soybean crush will likely be as high as 2 mln tonnes. And soybean meal stocks increased by 20% to 370,000 tonnes last weekend. Besides, catering services have been hammered by the coronavirus pandemic worldwide, which is unfavorable for breeding industry. With these bearish factors depressing cottonseed meal market, the trading goes not well. However, cottonseed is pricey due to supply shortages, so cottonseed meal price remains high supported by the cost. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal price may continue to adjust with fluctuations. Buyers can buy on immediate demand.
(USD $1=CNY ¥7.09)