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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--5/20/2020

Today (May 20), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday on smooth spring crop planting, as 53% of the nation’s soybean acreage was planted by May 17, compared to 16% last year and 38% of the 5-year average. Meal futures move slightly higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 CNY/tonne with some low-level purchases, and settle at 2610-2740 CNY/tonne today. (Tianjin 2740, Shandong 2650-2680, Jiangsu 2650-2680, Dongguan 2610-2650, and Guangxi 2610-2670.) China is expected to continue US soybean purchases. Meanwhile, Brazil’s exports of agriculture products still stay strong. China’s monthly soybean imports are forecast to get near to 10 mln tonnes from May to July, and weekly soybean crush will likely hit a very high level of 2 mln tonnes in coming two weeks. In the week ending May 15th, soybean meal stocks already rose by 20% to 370,000 tonnes. On the demand side, the breeding industry is recovering at a slow pace, as global catering businesses are crippling under the pandemic. Soybean meal stocks have been increasing rapidly in Guangdong and Guangxi, so that some local oil mills have begun to ramp up delivery. Overall, soybean meal market is predicted to fluctuate with a wean patter, and participants can keep an eye on weather conditions in US crop belt.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down 10-20 CNY/tonne at 2,220-2,330 CNY/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,260, down 10; Guangdong 2,300, down 10; Fujian 2,320, down 20). With monthly arrival of nearly 10 mln tonnes of soybeans from May to July, the stocks of soybean oil and soybean meal keep rising. And soybean crush may be as high as 2 mln tonnes this week. However, the widespread of coronavirus pandemic has hammered global food services, leading to a downward trending of animal products prices. Thus, farmers are not active in recovering poultry population, and rapeseed meal price is dragged down. Likewise, the tensions between China and Canada have yet to be eased, the relations between China and Australia become strained as well, which may cause a tight supply of rapeseed. And rapeseed crush remains low. Moreover, the aquaculture has entered into a peak season, limiting the price declines of rapeseed meal. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal market is projected to fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can make small replenishment upon low and stable price.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with a weak trend today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,500-12,000 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,700-12,800 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,700-13,800 CNY/tonne. Domestic traders have a strong sentiment of waiting on uncertainties in fishing activities in Peru, which props up domestic fishmeal market. However, domestic fishmeal prices have been at a high level, and feed mills are cautious in purchasing without any pickup in demand, so the market is in thin trading. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to steadily edge lower in the short run. Stocks at port: Huangpu 54,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 22,000 tonnes, Shanghai 40,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted lower by 30 USD at 1,500 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and also lower by 30 USD at 1,730 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted lower by 20 USD at 1,490 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,720 USD/tonne. 
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady today. There are nearly 10 mln tonnes of soybeans arriving at ports each month from May to July. In this case, soybean crush will likely be as high as 2 mln tonnes. And soybean meal stocks increased by 20% to 370,000 tonnes last weekend. Besides, catering services have been hammered by the coronavirus pandemic worldwide, so the demand in farming recovers slowly. With these bearish factors depressing cottonseed meal market, the trading goes not well. However, cottonseed is pricey due to supply shortages, so cottonseed meal price remains high supported by the cost. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal price may continue to adjust with fluctuations. Buyers can buy on immediate demand.
(USD $1=CNY ¥7.1)