China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 21, 2020)

2020-05-26 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

In the week ending May 22, edible palm oil stock totals 429,300 tonnes at domestic ports, down 3.2% from 443,200 tonnes a week earlier; down 99,200 tonnes or 18.76% from 528,400 tonnes the same period last month; down 326,800 tonnes or 43.22% from 756,100 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 99,250 tonnes, an increase of 5,600 tonnes or 6% from 93,650 tonnes last week. Domestic palm oil stocks go down further as it still sees not many cargoes of palm oil arrival. Additionally, Chinese buyers still purchase few boatloads of palm oil in later period, leading to low inventory of palm oil.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 tonne）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W21	W20	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W21	W20	Change
Tianjin Port	8.38	6.7	1.68	35.16%	-49.52%	2.4	2.4	0
Hebei	0.1	0.1	0	-70.59%	-85.71%	0.14	0.18	-0.04
Shandong Port	2.78	2.26	0.52	234.94%	-38.77%	1.175	0.675	0.5
East China	13.55	15.05	-1.5	-30.15%	-53.07%	4.35	4.35	0
Guangdong	15.31	16.93	-1.62	-30.25%	-21.41%	1.7	1.52	0.18
Guangxi	0.96	1.28	-0.32	-62.65%	-55.77%	0.16	0.24	-0.08
Fujian	1.85	2	-0.15	19.35%	-43.08%	0	0	0
Total：	42.93	44.32	-1.39	-18.76%	-43.22%	9.925	9.365	0.56

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, palm oil imports in May forecast at 420,000-440,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 300,000-320,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) and flat from last week; that for June is 420,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 300,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) and up 50,000 tonnes from the previous week; that for July is 370,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 250,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) with no change from last week.

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/tonne）	Duty Paid (CNY/tonne)	DCE (CNY/tonne)	Import Margin
5/18/2020	Jun, 2020	540	4632	4542	-90
5/18/2020	Jul, 2020	535	4590	4542	-48
5/18/2020	Oct, 2020	542	4649	4684	35
5/18/2020	Nov, 2020	547	4691	4684	-7
5/19/2021	Jun, 2020	550	4716	4570	-146
5/19/2021	Jul, 2020	545	4674	4570	-104
5/20/2021	Jun, 2020	550	4713	4558	-155
5/20/2021	Jul, 2020	542.5	4650	4558	-92
5/21/2021	Jun, 2020	550	4713	4570	-143
5/21/2021	Jul, 2020	545	4671	4570	-101
5/21/2021	Sep, 2020	545	4671	4570	-101
5/21/2021	Aug, 2020	545	4671	4570	-101
5/21/2021	Nov, 2020	552	4730	4684	-46
5/22/2021	Jun, 2020	550	4724	4480	-244
5/22/2021	Jul, 2020	545	4682	4480	-202
5/22/2021	Nov, 2020	550	4724	4588	-136

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