Today (Jun 4), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures closed further higher on Wednesday. China was purchasing US soybeans amid tensions between Beijing and Washington; and U.S. soybeans saw a better export prospect due to the weaker U.S. dollar and as Brazilian Real was recovering from its downtrend. Meal futures also move further higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal increases by 10-20 CNY/tonne to attract some purchases on low spot prices and forward basis. The price settles at 2640-2780 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. (Tianjin 2780, Shandong 2715-2770, Jiangsu 2685-2700, Dongguan 2640-2660, and Guangxi 2630-2650.) China’s soybean meal stocks are picking up at a brisk pace as mills are maintaining high operation rates and soybean imports are predicted to surpass an average of 10 mln tonnes between June and August. The rise in soybean meal prices is thus limited due to bearish fundamentals. But soybean meal is in fair shipments now on the back of a pickup in feed sales as hog stocks keep recovering. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration said it would bar Chinese passenger flights from flying into America from June 16. Ahead of a detente between China and the US, soybean meal market is predicted to keep range-bound with a strengthening trend in the near term. Participants can keep focusing on China-US relations, and buyers can buy dips to keep appropriate stocks.
Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed higher on Wednesday due to the weakness in USD and China’s purchase of soybean. Today, rapeseed meal futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange edges up, and rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles up 10-20 CNY/tonne at 2,260-2,370 with tepid trading. In addition, Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou did not get released, so Canadian canola imports were still restrained, boosting rapeseed meal price. Seeing over 10 mln tonnes of soybean arrivals each month from June to August, the operation rate among soyoil mills stays at extremely high level and soybean meal stocks increase for consecutive six weeks in coastal areas. Likewise, the demand for meats has been greatly impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, thereby affecting demand for meals products. And there has been no trading volume in rapeseed meal for three weeks. With bearish factors in fundamentals, meals price is under pressure. However, the tensions between U.S. and China have escalated. And processing factories can’t operate normally amid shortage of imported rapeseed, leading to tight supply of rapeseed meal. Furthermore, the aquaculture is entering into a peak season. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal price is predicted to fluctuate to stay strong. Buyers need to maintain proper inventories but remain cautious in chasing up price.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,300-11,400 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,600-11,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,400-12,700 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,400-13,600 CNY/tonne.
A majority of fishmeal firms in China have low fishmeal stocks at present. And fish catches in Peru is still under uncertainty as seas wave are furious in current dry season. Hence, fishmeal traders are not willing to further lower down prices. However, Chinese feed plants are in a cautious mood due to the tepid demand. Moreover, quotes from Peruvian market are lower today, which may accordingly lower down cost of fishmeal imports. Fishmeal enterprises have little intention to raise prices. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable with slight adjustments in the short run.
Stocks at port: Huangpu 61,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 21,000 tonnes, Shanghai 36,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.
FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted lower by 50 USD at 1,450 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and lower by 50 USD at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,490 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,720 USD/tonne.
Fish catches in Peru: As of June 2nd (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 631,513 tonnes, taking up 26.17% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 30, 000 tonnes per day and 1,781,487 tonnes remaining available.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady with a rise of 20 CNY/tonne today. China still keeps purchasing U.S. soybeans despite tensions between the two countries. And Brazil’s Real recovers from consecutive declines. Besides, the prospect for U.S. soybean exports has been improved due to the weakness in USD. And US soybean futures closed higher last night. In addition, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange continue rising today, and spot soybean meal up by 10-20 CNY/tonne. Moreover, the cost remains high. And the wheat harvest in Shandong has begun in succession, so oil mills reduce the operation rate. Accordingly, cottonseed meal prices are boosted by these factors. However, the price of cottonseed meal has surpassed soybean meal, so some feed mills readjust the feed formula due to low cost performance. But the demand for cottonseed meal has been limited. Likewise, Trump’s administration on Wednesday barred Chinese passenger carriers from flying to the United States starting on June 16. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal price is likely to fluctuate to rebound moderately before an easing of U.S-China relations.
(USD $1=CNY ￥7.10)
