Today (Jun 8), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures slowed down gains and closed flat last Friday. Meal futures open low and fall on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal goes down by 10-40 CNY/tonne in thin trading. The price settles at 2650-2770 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. (Tianjin 2770, Shandong 2710-2760, Jiangsu 2680-2690, Dongguan 2650-2680, and Guangxi 2660-2680.) China’s soybean imports are predicted to surpass a monthly average of 10 mln tonnes between June and August, and oil mills have thus maintained operation rates at high levels; hence, soybean meal stocks in coastal regions continue the rise for a seventh straight week. In addition, there have been continuous rains in southern China, which has also affected local aquaculture. Soybean meal prices have thus seen declines in the short term. However, fresh cues in relations between China and the United States could occur at any time. Meanwhile, traders are also keeping a close eye on U.S. soybean crops. Besides, the cost of importing soybeans is much more higher now on the back of a rise in Brazilian Real and the high-level premium in Brazilian soybeans. Ahead of a detente between China and the United States, soybean meal prices are predicted to have limited declines and to keep range-bound with a strengthening trend. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.
Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed flat on Friday, and the rally in U.S. futures slowed. Today, rapeseed meal futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fall slightly, and rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles down 10-20 CNY/tonne at 2,250-2,370 with tepid trading. The rises in Brazil’s Real lead Brazilian premium to stay at high levels, which is favorable for U.S. soybean export. Besides, seeing over 10 mln tonnes of soybean arrivals each month from June to August, the operation rate among soyoil mills stays at extremely high level. Likewise, due to continuous rainfall in South area, the aquaculture is impacted in Guangdong and Guangxi. Also, people’s consumption of meats goes down after entering into Summer. Consequently, there has been no trading volume in rapeseed meal market for consecutive three weeks. With bearish factors in fundamentals, meals price is under pressure. In addition, there exists uncertainty in ties between U.S. and China. And Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou did not get released, escalating tensions between Ottawa and Beijing, so Canadian canola imports were still restrained. Thus, the price declines of rapeseed are limited on account of rapeseed shortages, and short-term rapeseed meal price is predicted to fluctuate to stay strong. Buyers can stay on the sideline and make appropriate replenishment upon low and stable price.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable with a partial rise today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,300-11,500 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY/tonne from last Friday; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,700-11,800 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY/tonne from last Friday; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,600-12,800 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,500-13,700 CNY/tonne, up 100-200 CNY/tonne from last Friday.
A majority of fishmeal companies in China have low fishmeal stocks at present. And fish catches in Peru is still under uncertainty as seas wave are furious in current dry season. Hence, fishmeal traders are still propping up prices. However, Chinese feed plants are in a cautious mood due to the tepid demand, so fishmeal enterprises have little intention to raise prices. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable with slight adjustments in the short run.
Stocks at port: Huangpu 62,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 20,000 tonnes, Shanghai 35,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.
FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,450 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,490 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,720 USD/tonne.
Fish catches in Peru: As of June 4th (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 717,375 tonnes, taking up 29.73% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 31, 000 tonnes per day and 1,695,625 tonnes remaining available.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady with partial rise of 20-50 CNY/tonne today. The cost continues going higher and the operation rate stays at low level, which both support cottonseed meal price. But U.S. soybean futures slowed the rise on Friday and ended the session flat. Besides, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange fall back after low opens today, and spot soybean meal drops by 10-40 CNY/tonne. Moreover, the price of cottonseed meal has surpassed soybean meal, so some feed mills readjust the feed formula due to low cost performance. But the demand for cottonseed meal has been limited. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal price is still likely to fluctuate to stay strong before an easing of U.S-China relations.
(USD $1=CNY ￥7.10)
