Today (Jun 11), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures closed slightly higher Wednesday, and meal futures fractionally swing on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal steadily fluctuates by 10-20 CNY/tonne in tepid trading. The price settles at 2630-2750 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. (Tianjin 2750, Shandong 2690-2710, Jiangsu 2650-2680, Dongguan 2630-2660, and Guangxi 2650-2670.) China’s monthly soybean imports are forecast to surpass an average of 10 mln tonnes in June, July and August, and domestic oil mills are maintaining soybean crush at a very high level; hence, soybean meal stocks have been on an uptrend for weeks in coastal regions. And continuing heavy rains have swept eleven provinces in the southern part of China, so that aquaculture is affected in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces, and soybean meal shipments and deliveries have also been interrupted. Such bearish fundamentals are still limiting rises in meal prices. However, tensions between China and the U.S. and weather conditions in the U.S. crop belt could be a hotspot in the market anytime. U.S. soybean prices have not posted sharp gains recently, but Brazilian soybean premiums rose by 15 cents last night, which significantly increases cost of importing soybeans. In addition, the demand for feed is getting better in China as hog stocks are increasing. Overall, soybean meal prices may keep range-bound with a strengthening trend. Buyers are suggested to buy dips for appropriate stocks, but not to chasing after excessively high prices.
Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures ended a little higher on Wednesday. Rapeseed meal futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuate to decline today, and rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles down 10 CNY/tonne at 2,250-2,350 with tepid trading. Besides, seeing over 10 mln tonnes of soybean arrivals each month from June to August, the operation rate among soyoil mills stays at extremely high level. Likewise, due to continuous rainstorm in South area, the aquaculture is also under impact in Guangdong and Guangxi, which affects rapeseed meal more than soybean meal. Consequently, there has been no trading volume in rapeseed meal market. With bearish factors in fundamentals, meals price is under pressure. In addition, Canadian rapeseed imports are still restrained amid tensions between Ottawa and Beijing, so rapeseed supply becomes tightened. And there exist uncertainties in ties between U.S. and China, bolstering rapeseed meal price. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal price will not change too much and likely fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon low and stable price.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,700-11,800 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,600-12,800 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,500-13,700 CNY/tonne.
Peru’s fish catches have been on a upturn, while heavy rains have been falling in the southern parts of China, which causes some delays in aquaculture. In addition, there is a lack of bulk demand for fishmeal as hog stocks stay at a low level. These blunt port traders’ enthusiasm in raising prices. But currently, the majority of fishmeal companies in China have low fishmeal stocks, and fish catches in Peru are still under uncertainty as seas wave are furious in current dry season. Hence, most traders tend to stay on the sidelines today. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable with slight adjustments in the short run.
Stocks at port: Huangpu 59,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 18,000 tonnes, Shanghai 33,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.
FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,450 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,490 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,720 USD/tonne.
Fish catches in Peru: As of June 9th (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 931,028 tonnes, taking up 38.58% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 33, 000 tonnes per day and 1,481,972 tonnes remaining available.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady and rise by 100 CNY/tonne in individual regions. As the cost remains too high and the operation rate stays at low levels, cottonseed meal supply gets tight among oil mills in Xinjiang, raising factories’ selling reluctance. Consequently, cottonseed meal price is supported. Nonetheless, soybean arrivals from June to August will reach an average of more than 10 mln tonnes, which leads operating rate to remain super high, thereby seeing a consecutive rise in soybean meal stocks in coastal areas. Besides, the price of cottonseed meal has exceeded soybean meal, so some feed mills readjust the feed formula due to low cost performance. And the demand for cottonseed meal has been limited, seeing light trading. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal price is still likely to fluctuate to stay strong before a detente in relations between U.S. and China.
(USD $1=CNY ￥7.10)
