Today (Jun 23), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell on Monday on disappointing export data and on favorable crop weather in the Midwest. White House adviser Navarro said that a trade deal with China was “over”, and after that, U.S. President tweeted “The China Trade Deal is fully intact. Hopefully they will continue to live up to the terms of the Agreement!”. Meal futures are in a choppy range to rush high in early trading and then gradually pare gains to close lower toward midday trading on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today on those capricious sentences. Spot soybean meal prices steadily go up by 10-30 CNY/tonne to settle at 2665-2770 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, and the trading is not as good as that of yesterday. (Tianjin 2750-2760, Shandong 2690-2710, Jiangsu 2665-2680, Dongguan 2650-2670, and Guangxi 2650-2670.) Uncertainty remains in relations between China and the United States. And currently, U.S. soybean crops are in the stage of growth, which could easily trigger weather speculation in the market. Besides, imported soybean crush is at a loss in China if by DCE prices. And domestic soybean meal has a positive demand prospect, as large groups have enlarged their hog breeding under the push of preferential policies. However, as the monthly average soybean arrivals are forecast to top 10 million tonnes in June, July and August, oil mills picked up soybean crush to a new high of 2.14 mln tonnes last week. Weekly soybean meal stocks thus rose for a ninth consecutive week by 20% to 900,000 tonnes, and some mills have to suspend production due to swelling inventories. As the cost of importing soybeans keeps increasing, soybean meal market is predicted to fluctuate with a strengthening trend. DCE meal futures are edging lower in afternoon trading, so buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Imported rapeseed meal: The weather in Midwestern United States is favorable for crop condition. U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Monday due to poor exports.  Today, rapeseed meal futures moderately edge down on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles down 10 CNY/tonne at 2,230-2,310, seeing light trading. However, monthly soybean arrivals between June and August are as high as 10 mln tonnes, soybean crush last week hit a fresh record high of 2.14 mln tonnes. And soybean meal stocks in coastal regions consecutively increased by 20% to 900,000 tonnes compared with the previous week. Consequently, some regions have faced with a stock overage. In addition, many aquatic products in Beijing have been tested positive for COVID-19, affecting demand in aquaculture. Thus, buyers are in a wait-and-see mood, so rapeseed meal is in light trading, which curbs meals price. Nevertheless, Canadian rapeseed imports are blocked amid tensions between Canada and China. Accordingly, both the operation rate and rapeseed stocks among crushing mill are staying at historic lows, boosting meals price. FYI, buyers can maintain safety inventory on the dips but not chase up price too excessively.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,900-12,000 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,700-12,900 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,600-13,800 CNY/tonne.

Main importers in China now have low fishmeal stocks in hand, and also make small imports. Peru announced to temporarily close the docks due to the severe COVID-19 outbreak, which may also postpone local exports. Hence, domestic traders are propping up prices. However, the demand for fishmeal does not pick up very much now, as recent rains have slowed down aquaculture activities in China, so that most feed plants do not make bulk purchases. The demand now is weighing on domestic fishmeal market.

Stocks at port: Huangpu 53,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 18,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,400 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,630 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,490 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,720 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in Peru: As of June 21^st (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 1,463,503 tonnes, taking up 60.65% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 37, 000 tonnes per day and 949,497 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady and decrease by 50 CNY/tonne in several regions. With over 10 mln tonnes of soybean arrivals each month between June and August, soybean crush last week hit a fresh record high of 2.14 mln tonnes. And soybean meal stocks in coastal regions have increased to 900,000 tonnes for the consecutive ninth week, an advance of 20% from the previous week. Consequently, some oil plants face with a stock overage. Besides, the coronavirus is spreading in Beijing, which hammers catering services again. In this case, buyers are wary of jumping into the market. Moreover, the demand for cottonseed meal is restricted due to the low cost performance. Thus, cottonseed meal price is curbed by these factors. But cottonseed price is still high, so cottonseed meal market will not drop too much and likely fluctuate at a narrow range in the near term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥7.07)