Today is 12/23/2024
I. Soybean
Price
Domestic soybean: Domestic soybean supply posts a tight prospect in producing regions, as it will take nearly 4 months for most new crops to go marketing. However, downstream buyers are not vigorous at current high prices. Besides, new early soybeans in Hunan and Hubei will go into the market in July. Hence, soybean supply may get an increase. Dominated by bullish factors, domestic soybean market is predicted to maintain a strengthening trend next week.
Imported soybean: Domestic soybean prices keep rising, and PNW soybeans are highly concentrated in the hand of very few traders at ports, which bolsters PNW soybean prices to go higher. However, Brazilian soybean stocks are still high at China’s ports, and soybean vessels from Argentina and Uruguay are arriving at ports this week, which can replace PNW soybeans. Hence, port stocks will be mounting higher. On the demand front, buyers are not vigorous and tend to wait, and there is only the rigid demand in the market, which also slows down port shipments. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, imported soybean market is predicted to be weakening and keep range-bound. Participants can keep an eye on soybean arrivals at domestic ports.
| China's Soybean Weekly Price（CNY/Tonne） | |||||
| Region | Grade | This week | Last week | Variation | |
| Northeast China | Heilongjiang | Domestic, GB Grade 3 | 5,420 | 5,320 | 100 |
| Inner Mongolia | Domestic, GB Grade 3 | 5,430 | 5,320 | 110 | |
| East China | Jiangsu | Domestic soybean | 6,750 | 6,600 | 150 |
| North China | Tianjin | Non-GM, Kazakhstan | N/A | N/A | |
| Non-GM, Ukraine | N/A | N/A | |||
| Non-GM, Canada | N/A | N/A | |||
| GM, US PNW | N/A | N/A | |||
| GM, US GULF | N/A | N/A | |||
| East China | Shandong | Import, PNW | N/A | 4000-4020 | |
| Import, US Gulf | N/A | 3,500 | |||
| Import, Uruguay | N/A | N/A | |||
| National average | Domestic soybean | 5,420 | 5,320 | 100 | |
| Imported soybean | 3,575 | 3,550 | 25 | ||
Crush: Oil mills have slightly lowered down operation rates this week (June 20-26), as some of them are facing swelling soybean meal inventories, especially those in east China. Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 2,031,000 tonnes (meal 1,604,490 tonnes and oil 385,890 tonnes), down 107,200 tonnes or 5.01% from 2,138,200 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 58.50%, down 3.08% from 61.58% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to be around 2.05 mln tonnes and 2.08 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, respectively. All oil mills are seeking to work at full capacity and to speed up deliveries, unless disrupted by swelling stockpiles.
Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 8.79 mln tonnes in June at current utilization rate, above 8.6194 mln tonnes in the previous month and also above 7.3954 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year.
As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 63,730,164 tonnes in the soybean crop year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), up 632,779 tonnes or 1% from 63,097,385 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 41,746,650 tonnes, up 1,800,665 tonnes or 4.5% from 39,945,985 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019.
Inventory: Soybean stocks continue the growth in coastal regions this week due to huge imports. In the week as of June 26, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 5,648,000 tonnes, up 464,500 tonnes by 8.96% from 5,183,500 tonnes last week and up by 39.26% from 4,055,600 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean stocks will gradually build up along with huge soybean arrivals between June and August.
Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 38 cargoes with 2.501 mln tonnes this week, a total of 137 cargoes with 8.991 mln tonnes for June so far. The import is predicted to be 158.5 cargoes or 10.398 mln tonnes for July, 9.4 mln tonnes for August, 8.1 mln tonnes for September, 7.3 mln tonnes for October, and 7.4 mln tonnes for November. Statistics will be updated every week on account of fresh buying and renewed shipments.
China’s Customs:
|
China's Soybean Imports by Country (May, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/ |
May, 2020 |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. |
Price Var. |
Qty. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Ethiopia |
0.02 |
481 |
0.02 |
一 |
0.02 |
481 |
|
Kazakhstan |
0 |
一 |
0 |
一 |
-0.46 |
一 |
|
China |
0 |
一 |
0 |
一 |
0 |
一 |
|
Russia |
0.49 |
375 |
-4.2 |
52 |
-3.29 |
53 |
|
Ukraine |
0.87 |
452 |
0.73 |
25 |
0.85 |
-57 |
|
Argentina |
0 |
一 |
-5.62 |
一 |
0 |
一 |
|
Brazil |
886.21 |
384 |
292.31 |
-7 |
250.89 |
-5 |
|
Uruguay |
0 |
一 |
0 |
一 |
-3.93 |
一 |
|
Canada |
0.93 |
437 |
0.39 |
6 |
0.87 |
-130 |
|
U.S. |
49.17 |
383 |
-17.39 |
-14 |
-41.44 |
-18 |
|
Total |
937.69 |
384 |
266.24 |
-7 |
203.51 |
-6 |
II. Soybean Meal
Price: Domestic soybean meal prices swing slightly higher this week (June 22-28). As of this Sunday, prices mostly settles up 10-40 CNY at 2640-2750 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions.
| China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price (CNY/Tonne) | ||||
| Region | This week | Last week | Variation | |
| Northeast China | Jilin | 2,880 | 2,870 | 10 |
| North China | Tianjin | 2,730 | 2,740 | -10 |
| Hebei | 2,730 | 2,730 | 0 | |
| Central China | Hubei | 2,720 | 2,720 | 0 |
| Henan | 2,780 | 2,770 | 10 | |
| East China | Shandong | 2,665 | 2,655 | 10 |
| Jiangsu | 2,650 | 2,630 | 20 | |
| Zhejiang | 2,710 | 2,660 | 50 | |
| Shanghai | 2,650 | 2,650 | 0 | |
| Fujian | 2,650 | 2,650 | 0 | |
| Anhui | 2,710 | 2,700 | 10 | |
| South China | Guangdong | 2,650 | 2,630 | 20 |
| Guangxi | 2,670 | 2,640 | 30 | |
| National average | 2,686 | 2,676 | 10 | |
Inventory: Soybean meal stocks continue the uptrend for a tenth straight week this week as soybean crush still stays at a very high level. In the week ending June 26, China’s soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 964,700 tonnes, up 64,400 tonnes by 7.15% from 900,300 tonnes last week and up by 7.78% from 895,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Soybean meal stocks will likely continue increasing, as weekly soybean crush is forecast to stay high at around 2.05 mln tonnes in the next two weeks.
China’s Customs:
|
China's Soybean Meal Imports by Country (May, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/ |
May, 2020 |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Denmark |
3100 |
787 |
1825 |
33 |
2150 |
-18 |
|
U.S. |
0 |
一 |
-0.14 |
一 |
0 |
一 |
|
Netherlands |
0 |
一 |
0 |
一 |
0 |
一 |
|
China |
0 |
一 |
0 |
一 |
0 |
一 |
|
India |
157.48 |
555 |
157.48 |
一 |
157.48 |
555 |
|
Russia |
3260.14 |
482 |
141.2 |
17 |
3260.14 |
482 |
|
Total Qty. |
6517.62 |
629 |
2123.54 |
80 |
5567.62 |
-176 |
|
China's Soybean Meal Exports by Country (May, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/ |
This Month |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Japan |
66579.35 |
373.22 |
13708.21 |
3.56 |
1459.75 |
16.57 |
|
Malaysia |
6628.50 |
376.01 |
6602.50 |
-487.49 |
6616.00 |
-453.99 |
|
Netherlands |
3656.49 |
672.70 |
2207.31 |
59.28 |
-2357.65 |
96.37 |
|
Italy |
3231.18 |
662.59 |
- |
- |
1446.00 |
73.74 |
|
UK |
2420.34 |
670.81 |
- |
- |
-1129.90 |
119.72 |
|
Denmark |
2267.18 |
597.34 |
- |
- |
-6481.20 |
12.18 |
|
Costa Rica |
783.00 |
654.14 |
- |
- |
783.00 |
654.14 |
|
Norway |
715.20 |
648.26 |
- |
- |
324.32 |
58.26 |
|
Spain |
630.00 |
664.31 |
- |
- |
-394.21 |
67.87 |
|
Greece |
537.15 |
654.42 |
- |
- |
374.17 |
28.90 |
|
France |
517.68 |
604.29 |
- |
- |
-4.34 |
29.47 |
|
Cambodia |
496.89 |
373.03 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Vietnam |
492.00 |
652.35 |
-145.00 |
-35.11 |
40.00 |
4.59 |
|
South Korea |
431.99 |
510.40 |
49.79 |
-221.62 |
399.51 |
112.09 |
|
Canada |
300.00 |
623.00 |
- |
- |
-10.00 |
22.19 |
|
Singapore |
275.00 |
1000.00 |
75.00 |
1.60 |
- |
- |
|
Others |
375.53 |
543.27 |
-2.95 |
-129.40 |
-4317.57 |
35.65 |
|
Total |
90337.47 |
424.75 |
34393.47 |
38.15 |
-2480.22 |
5.16 |
III. Soybean Oil
Price: Domestic soybean oil prices fall this week (June 22-28). As of this Sunday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 5780-5980 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions, a decline of 10-100 CNY/tonne from last week.
| China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (CNY/Tonne) | |||||
| Region | Grade | This week | Last week | Variation | |
| Northeast China | Dalian, Liaoning | GB Grade 1 | |||
| GB Grade 3 | |||||
| North China | Qinhuangdao, Hebei | GB Grade 1 | |||
| Tianjin | GB Grade 1 | 5830-5840 | 5880-5900 | 50-60 | |
| East China | Rizhao, Shandong | GB Grade 1 | 5,800 | 5,830 | -30 |
| Xiamen, Fujian | GB Grade 1 | ||||
| Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu | GB Grade 1 | 5,980 | 5,990 | -10 | |
| Central China | Zhengzhou, Henan | GB Grade 1 | |||
| South China | Dongguan, Guangdong | GB Grade 1 | 5940-5960 | 6,000 | 40-60 |
| Fangchenggang, Guangxi | GB Grade 1 | ||||
| GB Grade 3 | |||||
| National average | GB Grade 1 | 5,885 | 5,900 | -15 | |
| GB Grade 3 | 5,835 | 5,850 | -15 | ||
Inventory: Soybean oil stocks continue the growth this week. In the week ending June 26, China’s soybean oil commercial inventory has totaled 1,122,480 tonnes, up 84,930 tonnes by 8.19% from 1,037,550 tonnes last week, up 222,480 tonnes by 24.72% from 900,000 tonnes last month, yet down 357,520 tonnes by 24.16% from 1,480,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,263,400 tonnes.
China’s Customs:
|
China's Soybean Oil Imports by Country (May, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/Region |
This Month |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Argentina |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
-30750.00 |
- |
|
U.S. |
0 |
- |
-4.57 |
- |
-0.02 |
- |
|
Brazil |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
-10000.00 |
- |
|
Ukraine |
9423.38 |
806.90 |
-2280.37 |
10.55 |
-1496.02 |
93.36 |
|
Belarus |
1032.42 |
762.41 |
-489.06 |
-49.86 |
1032.42 |
- |
|
Russia |
12674.44 |
823.94 |
1774.28 |
33.33 |
10301.33 |
63.96 |
|
Thailand |
219.6 |
1050.00 |
219.6 |
- |
219.60 |
- |
|
Italy |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
South Korea |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
North Korea |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Vietnam |
156.665 |
1003.18 |
77.275 |
-0.36 |
78.01 |
-2.11 |
|
Taiwan, China |
0 |
- |
-378.09 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Malaysia |
0.001 |
18000.00 |
-0.009 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Netherlands |
3.8 |
3653.95 |
3.8 |
- |
-3.04 |
-1259.21 |
|
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Sweden |
45.695 |
1900.84 |
-0.745 |
-76.03 |
-47.55 |
-7.63 |
|
India |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Canada |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Paraguay |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Hong Kong, China |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
France |
0.101 |
8138.61 |
0.071 |
- |
0.10 |
- |
|
Japan |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
-3.69 |
- |
|
Singapore |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Austria |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Spain |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
-0.20 |
- |
|
Turkey |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Serbia |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Greece |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Kazakhstan |
544 |
750.00 |
544 |
- |
294.00 |
17.08 |
|
Israel |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Germany |
0 |
- |
-0.03 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
TPKM |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
-1.44 |
- |
|
Poland |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Lithuania |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Total |
24100.1 |
818.72 |
-533.85 |
18.86 |
-30376.50 |
61.48 |
|
TPKM: Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu |
||||||
|
China's Soybean Oil Exports by Country (May, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/Region |
This Month |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Japan |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
-2351.068 |
-921.00 |
|
Singapore |
346.04 |
913.85 |
-109.86 |
48.41 |
227.02 |
-256.48 |
|
Myanmar |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
North Korea |
15113.07 |
1009.56 |
8689.93 |
30.61 |
6667.637 |
-89.83 |
|
HK, China |
1734.793 |
792.20 |
-3332.637 |
-9.22 |
-1263.51 |
35.07 |
|
Macao China |
41.124 |
888.34 |
-20.976 |
30.69 |
31.624 |
-194.40 |
|
Taiwan, China |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Maldives |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
South Korea |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
-26.164 |
- |
|
Malaysia |
207.94 |
775.02 |
101.82 |
-127.55 |
207.94 |
- |
|
Vietnam |
0 |
- |
-41.59 |
- |
-65.16 |
- |
|
Angola |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Niger |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Mongolia |
119.137 |
999.64 |
-35.603 |
-6.73 |
40.477 |
-5.65 |
|
Mozambique |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Pakistan |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Cook Islands |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Sierra Leone |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Bahamas |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Bangladesh |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Philippines |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Italy |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Australia |
49.68 |
1650.18 |
33.12 |
-2.72 |
49.68 |
- |
|
Canada |
40 |
979.10 |
-58.4 |
-37.00 |
40 |
- |
|
New Zealand |
18.2 |
1513.46 |
18.2 |
- |
0 |
613.46 |
|
Zimbabwe |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
-0.482 |
- |
|
Nigeria |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Tunisia |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Venezuela |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Papua New Guinea |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
U.S. |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Ethiopia |
0 |
- |
-220 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Indonesia |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Djibouti |
217.92 |
779.35 |
41.92 |
22.92 |
217.92 |
- |
|
Total |
17887.9 |
982.98 |
5065.92 |
82.73 |
3775.91 |
-11.98 |