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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--6/30/2020

2020-06-30 www.cofeed.com

Today (Jun 30), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

 

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures were fractionally higher on Monday on good export data and short coverings, and meal futures move moderately higher on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal stay stable with a partial rise of 10-20 CNY/tonne in tepid trading and sit at 2640-2740 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. (Tianjin 2740, Shandong 2695-2710, Jiangsu 2670-2690, Dongguan 2640-2660, Guangxi 2650-2680, and Fujian 2660-2680.) The cost of importing Brazilian soybeans rises as the premium stays firm amid tight supplies, so DCE crushing margins are stuck at the break-even line. And the demand prospect for soybean meal in China is positive, for hog stocks have been recovering for months. In addition, relations between China and the United States remain uncertain. After the Nationwide Safety Legislation for Hong Kong passed in Beijing today, the U.S. announced to cancel Hong Kong’s special status. Hence, domestic oil mills are inclined to support prices, which is bullish to meal market. But given massive soybean imports between June and August, China’s oil mills have maintained soybean crush at an exceedingly high level. Weekly soybean meal stockpiles have thus increased by 7% to 960,000 tonnes in coastal regions, and some oil mills have to suspend production due to swelling inventories. Overall, short-term soybean meal stocks may keep range-bound. Buyers are suggested to buy dips for appropriate stocks and remain cautious in chasing after higher prices.

 

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures moved a little higher on Monday due to a good shape in exports and short covering. Rapeseed meal futures edge up today on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles up 10 CNY/tonne at 2,210-2,300, seeing light trading. The imports of rapeseed are still disrupted amid tensions between Ottawa and Beijing. Accordingly, both rapeseed crush and inventories among crushing mill are staying at historic lows. In this case, oil plants tend to prop up price as rapeseed meal supply gets tight, boosting meals price. As monthly soybean arrivals at ports between June and August are upwards of 10 mln tonnes and soybeans may easily go bad in hot summer weather, the operation rate among crushing mills remains super high. Based on this, soybean crush will likely stay at a high of above 2.05 mln tonnes over the next two weeks and soybean meal stocks in coastal areas consecutively climb up. In addition, many aquatic products in the wholesale market are tested positive for COVID-19 amid a second wave of outbreak in Beijing, affecting demand for them. Consequently, the price rises of rapeseed meal is limited under the bearish fundamentals, and short-term market may fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon low price but not chase up price too high.

 

Imported fishmeal:  Imported fishmeal prices stay stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,900-12,000 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,700-12,900 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,600-13,800 CNY/tonne.

 

China’s fishmeal stocks are not in huge quantities at present, which helps support the prices. However, domestic demand for fishmeal does not pick up very much now, as recent rains have slowed down aquaculture activities in the southern parts, so that most feed plants do not make bulk purchases. The demand now is weighing on domestic fishmeal market.

 

Stocks at port: Huangpu 51,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 17,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 7,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

 

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,300 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,390 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,620 USD/tonne.

 

Fish catches in Peru: As of June 28th (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 1,775,626 tonnes, taking up 73.59% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 38, 000 tonnes per day and 637,374 tonnes remaining available.

 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady today. Cottonseed is in short supply, and it still takes time for new cottonseed to enter market, so some traders are reluctant to sell them and prop up price. Besides, U.S. soybean futures were pushed a little higher on Monday due to a good shape in exports and short covering. Meals moderately rise on Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and spot soybean meal steadily up by 10-20 CNY/tonne, which bolsters cottonseed meal price. As soybean arrival at ports is huge in quantity between June and August, the operation rate among crushing mills remains super high, and soybean meal stocks in coastal regions increase to 960,000 tonnes with a weekly advance of 7%. Such being the case, some oil plants have halted the operation due to a stock overage, curbing meals price. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal market will probably fluctuate at a narrow range.

 

(USD $1=CNY ¥7.08)