Today (Jul 3), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures closed marginally lower on Thursday due to disappointing exports of old crop soybeans and on profit-taking, and meal futures trade at a narrow range on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices swing by 10-30 CNY/tonne and steady at 2770-2830 CNY/tonne. Spot market sees thin trading while forward basis will still be attracting low-level purchases. (Tianjin 2830, Shandong 2810-2870, Jiangsu 2780-2800, Dongguan 2770-2800, and Guangxi 2780-2800.) Soybean crush in China has been at an extraordinarily high point for weeks as massive soybean imports are arriving at ports, which will keep pressure on soybean meal stockpiles. The negative fundamental is still constraining soybean meal prices. Merely, participants are expecting higher prices in U.S. soybean futures on weather problems, now that soybean crops are into the critical growing stage in July and August. The demand prospect for soybean meal is positive in China, for there has been a continuing rise in hog stocks. Add to that, a majority of oil mills have sold out spot soybean meal for July shipments. Actually, soybean crush is in bad margins on the DCE at present. Hence, oil mills are seeking to prop up prices. Besides, great uncertainty remains between China and the United States. Short-term soybean meal prices will trade at a narrow range with a strengthening trend on support from bullish factors, but will also fluctuate frequently due to high pressure from stockpiles.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed down on Thursday due to poor export. It posted a bit fluctuation in rapeseed meal futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settled at 2,280-2,360, but still seeing light trading. The imports of rapeseed are restricted amid tensions between Ottawa and Beijing, so the operation rate among rapeseed crushing mills stays at a low level all the time. Meanwhile, there still exists uncertainties in China-U.S. relations, and the crush margins of soybean futures are poor. Furthermore, major breeding groups have expanded the breeding scale for hogs, so hog herd keeps recovering recently, seeing a better demand prospect. Thus, oil plants have intention to raise the meals price, which boosts rapeseed meal market. But additionally, soybean arrivals at ports between June and August are huge in quantity, the operation rate among crushing mills remains super high. Based on this, soybean meal stocks rise consecutively. In addition, the second wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing is still affecting the demand for meats and aquatic products. Consequently, the upward momentum of rapeseed meal is still limited, and short-term market is projected to fluctuate to stay strong under the bearish fundamentals.

Imported fishmeal:  Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,300-11,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,600-12,000 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,600-12,800 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,500-13,600 CNY/tonne.

As fish catches go along at a steady pace in Peru, local manufacturers become less steadfast in propping up prices, which will also lower down the cost of new fish meal. Meanwhile, the demand for fishmeal does not pick up very much in China now, so that most feed plants do not make bulk purchases and port traders do not see strong trading volume. However, China’s fishmeal stocks are not in huge quantities at present, and the COVID-19 outbreak is still severe in Peru; hence, fishmeal prices will have limited declines in China.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 50,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 16,000 tonnes, Shanghai 29,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,250 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,480 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,390 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,620 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in Peru: As of July 1^st (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 1,901,172 tonnes, taking up 78.79% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 38, 000 tonnes per day and 511,828 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady today. U.S. soybean will easily rise on the worries about weather condition as soybean developing enters into a critical period in July and August. And the crush margins of soybean futures are poor. Moreover, hog inventory keeps recovering recently, seeing a better demand prospect. Besides, cottonseed supply is decreasing, and it will be some time before new cottonseed enters market. Being dominated by these bullish factors, meals price is boosted. In addition, soybean arrival at ports is huge in quantity between June and August, so the operation rate among crushing mills remains super high, putting pressure on the inventory of soybean meal. This has limited price rises of meal products, and cottonseed meal price will probably stay stable with big fluctuations in a short term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥7.06)