Today (Jul 6), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. market was closed last Friday, and November soybean futures contract sharply increase to cross 900 cents on the CBOT today. Meal futures also open high to post gains on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up 30-80 CNY/tonne to 2820-2880 CNY/tonne, attracting purchases on low-level forward basis. (Tianjin 2880, Shandong 2865-2890, Jiangsu 2835-2870, Dongguan 2820-2850, and Guangxi 2830-2860.) U.S. soybean futures are bolstered to move higher by crop weather problems, and Brazilian soybean premiums are firm now due to limited quantities for exports. And in China, hog stocks keep recovering, and soybean meal takes up a higher proportion in feed formula due to its better price ratio than alternative meals. And downstream customers are vigorous in stocking up soybean meal on the back of a rise in prices. Following a great pickup in the demand, a majority of oil mills have sold out spot soybean meal for July shipments. Spot soybean meal prices see a larger rise than futures today, and mills subordinated to Yihai Kerry (Wilmar) have raised prices even more sharply. Soybean meal stocks have slowed down growth on huge demand, though soybean crush still remains high. Moreover, U.S. soybean futures price could be building in some weather premium. And according to foreign media, U.S. President Donald Trump is considering two or three actions against China, with a high probability to be unveiled in days. Uncertainty still remains between these two countries. Overall, soybean meal prices will trade at a narrow range to rebound in the short run.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean market was closed on Friday, and exceeded 900 cents for the main contract today. Meals futures in China went up. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settled up 10-20 CNY/tonne at 2,280-2,360, but still seeing light trading. The imports of rapeseed are restricted amid tensions between Ottawa and Beijing, so the operation rate among rapeseed crushing mills stays at a low level all the time. Rapeseed meal stocks in coastal areas declined to 27,000 tonnes last week, a reduction of 3.5% compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, there still exists uncertainty in China-U.S. relations, boosting rapeseed meal market. But the operation rate among crushing mills remains super high due to huge soybean arrival at ports, so soybean meal stocks continue growing. In addition, the second wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing is still affecting the demand for meats and aquatic products. In this case, rapeseed meal price increases slowly relatively, but it will also be raised gradually as soybean meal has gone up remarkably. Buyers can maintain safety inventory upon low price, and had better not purchase more when it rises too much.

Imported fishmeal:  Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,300-11,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,600-12,000 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,600-12,800 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,500-13,600 CNY/tonne.

Fishmeal prices will have limited declines in China, as its stocks are not in huge quantities at present. But fish catches have been nearly 80% completed in Peru and may exhausted the quota in middle July if at current speed, and local manufacturers thus gradually loosen their prices. The demand for fishmeal does not pick up very much in China now, as rains have influenced aquaculture in most southern regions. A majority of feed plants do not make bulk purchases, subduing the trading at ports.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 48,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 16,000 tonnes, Shanghai 28,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,250 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,480 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,390 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,620 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady and down by 10-20 CNY/tonne in some regions today. The operation rate among soyoil plants remains super high, leading to a consecutive increase in soybean meal stocks. Moreover, the demand for cottonseed meal is limited due to its low cost performance. These are depressing cottonseed meal market. But U.S. soybean market was closed on Friday, and significantly rose on CBOT today, exceeding 900 cents for November contract. Also, meals went up after high opens on Dalian Commodity Exchange, and spot soybean meal up by 30-80 CNY/tonne. Besides, cottonseed is pricey amid the tight supply, so cottonseed meal is projected to not drop easily, and will likely follow the soybean oil to rise.

(USD $1=CNY ¥7.07)