I. Soybean

 

Price

 

Domestic soybean: Local soybean supplies are scarce, and traders also have limited quantity for sales. These have helped enhance the market confidence. However, the demand for soybean products is slack at present. And downstream buyers are not vigorous at current high prices. Besides, new early soybeans in Hunan and Hubei will go into the market in July. The increase in supply will limit further rises in domestic soybean prices. Overall, domestic soybean market is predicted to maintain a strengthening trend next week on bullish factors.

 

Imported soybean: PNW soybean prices keep firm at domestic ports due to its highly concentrated supplies. But as soybean cargoes from Argentina and Uruguay are arriving at ports, port stocks also keep increasing. In addition, Brazilian soybean stocks have already been at a high level. On the demand front, buyers are not vigorous and tend to wait, and there is only the rigid demand in the market, which also slows down port shipments. Traders are not confident enough in propping up prices, so that Brazilian soybean prices are falling. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, imported soybean market is predicted to be weakening and keep range-bound. Participants can keep an eye on soybean arrivals at domestic ports.

 

China's Soybean Weekly Price（CNY/Tonne）
Region		Grade	This week	Last week	Variation
Northeast China	Heilongjiang	Domestic, GB Grade 3	5,620	5,420	200
	Inner Mongolia	Domestic, GB Grade 3	5,600	5,430	170
East China	Jiangsu	Domestic soybean	6,800	6,750	50
North China	Tianjin	Non-GM, Kazakhstan	N/A	N/A
		Non-GM, Ukraine	5,200	N/A
		Non-GM,  Canada	N/A	N/A
		GM, US PNW	N/A	N/A
		GM, US GULF	N/A	N/A
East China	Shandong	Import, PNW	4000-4060	N/A
		Import, US Gulf	3,550	N/A
		Import, Uruguay	3,580	N/A
National average		Domestic soybean	5,620	5,420	200
		Imported soybean	3,550	3,575	-25

 

 

 

 

Crush: Following a slight rise in operation rates this week (Jun 27-Jul 3), soybean crush at domestic mills totals 2,042,700 tonnes (meal 1,613,733 tonnes and oil 388,113 tonnes), up 11,700 tonnes or 0.05% from 2,031,000 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 58.83%, up 0.33% from 58.50% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to continue the uptrend to 2.06 mln tonnes and 2.10 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, respectively. A majority of mills will not suspend production as they are speeding up deliveries amid huge pressure from soybean meal inventories.

 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 65,772,864 tonnes in the soybean crop year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), up 1,262,679 tonnes or 1.96% from 64,510,185 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 43,789,350 tonnes, up 2,430,565 tonnes or 5.88% from 41,358,785 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019.

 

 

Inventory: Soybean stocks marginally reduce in coastal regions this week, as soybean crush hits an extremely high level of 2.04 mln tonnes. In the week as of July 3, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 5,542,900 tonnes, down 105,100 tonnes by 1.86% from 5,648,000 tonnes last week yet up by 29.93% from 4,265,900 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean stocks will gradually build up along with huge soybean arrivals between June and August.

 

 

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 23 cargoes with 1.511 mln tonnes this week, a total of 7 cargoes with 466,000 tonnes for July so far. The import is predicted to be 158.5 cargoes or 10.398 mln tonnes for July, 9.7 mln tonnes for August, 8.1 mln tonnes for September, 7.3 mln tonnes for October, and 7.4 mln tonnes for November. Statistics will be updated every week on account of fresh buying and renewed shipments.  

 

II. Soybean Meal

 

Price: Domestic soybean meal prices continue the rise this week (June 29-July 3). As of this Friday, prices mostly settles up 90-160 CNY at 2770-2830 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

 

China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price  (CNY/Tonne)
Region		This week	Last week	Variation
Northeast China	Jilin	2,980	2,880	100
North China	Tianjin	2,830	2,730	100
	Hebei	2,820	2,730	90
Central China	Hubei	2,860	2,720	140
	Henan	2,910	2,780	130
East China	Shandong	2,810	2,665	145
	Jiangsu	2,750	2,650	100
	Zhejiang	2,765	2,710	55
	Shanghai	2,780	2,650	130
	Fujian	2,760	2,650	110
	Anhui	2,820	2,710	110
South China	Guangdong	2,770	2,650	120
	Guangxi	2,790	2,670	120
National average		2,801	2,686	115

 

 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks keep increasing for a 11^th straight week this week, as oil mills have maintained high-level soybean crush. In the week ending July 3, China’s soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 998,000 tonnes, up 33,300 tonnes by 3.45% from 964,700 tonnes last week and up by 7.92% from 924,700 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Soybean crush is predicted to stay at around 2.06 mln tonnes next week, but downstream customers are vigorous in purchasing due to a rise in soybean meal prices, so soybean meal stocks will probably slow down the growth.

 

 

III. Soybean Oil

 

Price: Domestic soybean oil prices move higher this week (June 29-July 3). As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 5850-6010 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions, a rise of 10-80 CNY/tonne from last week. 

 

China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (CNY/Tonne)
Region		Grade	This week	Last week	Variation
Northeast China	Dalian, Liaoning	GB Grade 1
		GB Grade 3
North China	Qinhuangdao, Hebei	GB Grade 1
	Tianjin	GB Grade 1	5,860	5830-5840	20-30
East China	Rizhao, Shandong	GB Grade 1	5,850	5,800	50
	Xiamen, Fujian	GB Grade 1
	Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu	GB Grade 1	6000-6010	5,980	20-30
Central China	Zhengzhou, Henan	GB Grade 1
South China	Dongguan, Guangdong	GB Grade 1	5930-5950	5940-5960	-10
	Fangchenggang, Guangxi	GB Grade 1
		GB Grade 3
National average		GB Grade 1	5,920	5,885	35
		GB Grade 3	5,880	5,835	45

 

 

Inventory: Soybean oil stocks continue the growth this week. In the week ending July 3, China’s soybean oil commercial inventory has totaled 1,192,280 tonnes, up 69,800 tonnes by 6.22% from 1,122,480 tonnes last week, up 250,780 tonnes by 26.64% from 941,500 tonnes last month, yet down 286,620 tonnes by 19.38% from 1,478,900 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,291,600 tonnes.