I. National stocks

In the week ending July 3, edible palm oil stock totals 386,800 tonnes at domestic ports, down 0.6% from 410,100 tonnes a week earlier; down 30,300 tonnes or 7.26% from 417,100 tonnes the same period last month; down 312,500 tonnes or 44.69% from 699,300 tonnes the corresponding period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 113,000 tonnes, an advance of 9,200 tonnes or 8.8% from 103,800 tonnes in the previous week.

Palm oil stocks in China stop rising and start falling due to less arrival of cargoes of palm oil this week. Palm oil price further declines by 20-130 CNY/tonne while soybean oil price goes up. As of this Friday, spot Grade-I soyoil price prevails at 5,850-6,010 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, an increase of 10-80 CNY/tonne from last week. Consequently, the price spread between palm oil and soybean oil has enlarged, extending by 113 CNY/tonne to 558 CNY/tonne from 445 CNY/tonne a week earlier. In this case, some buyers make replenishment upon the low price. Thus, palm oil trading goes better than the previous week, totaling 37,360 tonnes, up by 26,810 tonnes or 254.1% from 10,550 tonnes last week. Nevertheless, market expects that the arrival of RBD palm olein will be upwards of 400,000 tonnes in July. Moreover, the price spread between palm oil and soybean oil has been narrowing, which could limit the demand for palm oil. It is predicted that palm oil stocks at ports will still rise slightly.

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, palm oil imports forecast at 470,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 350,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) in June; 520,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 400,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) in July; 500,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 380,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes) in August. All these data are flat from last week.

III. Margins and Shipments