Today (Jul 9), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures declined on Wednesday, and meal futures marginally swing on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steady, with a partial decline of 10-20 CNY/tonne. As feed plants are consuming stockpiles, the trading is predicted to be tepid for spot contracts and still vigorous on forward basis. Specifically, the prices sit at 2800-2880 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. (Tianjin 2880, Shandong 2865-2890, Jiangsu 2825-2830, Dongguan 2800-2850, and Guangxi 2830-2850.) China’s soybean meal inventories keep increasing, as domestic oil mills have been maintaining extraordinarily high soybean crush. Soybean meal prices still have limited upward impetus due to bearish fundamentals. However, U.S. soybean futures could continue to post gains on weather problems, for soybean crops are setting pods now. Besides, Brazilian soybeans have seen firm supply premium, leading to a rise in the cost of import. And in China, oil mills have almost sold out spot soybean meal for July shipments and have very limited goods available now. Meanwhile, hog herd has been enlarging, and it will soon be the peak season for aquaculture. And in terms of nutrition and price, soybean meal is a better choice than alternative meals. These are all bullish to the market. Overall, short-term soybean meal market will have limited declines and will probably keep range-bound and strengthening.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed down on Wednesday. It saw a bit bounce in meals futures in China today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions remained at 2,270-2,360, but still seeing light trading. Besides, rapeseed crush stays at low levels as the imports of rapeseed are still restricted amid tensions between Ottawa and Beijing, so rapeseed meal inventories also keep at lows. Likewise, there still exists uncertainty in U.S.-China relations. In consequence, rapeseed meal market is boosted by these factors. Nevertheless, soybean arrival at ports is huge in quantity from June to August, and soybean could easily go bad in the hot summer, so soybean crush is very high, thereby soybean meal stocks climb up consecutively. On the other hand, the demand for meats and aquatic products is still impacted by the second wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing. Thus, the price rises of rapeseed meal are limited by bearish factors. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal market may mainly fluctuate to stay strong.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,300-11,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,600-12,000 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,600-12,800 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,500-13,600 CNY/tonne.

Fish catches have been 80% completed in Peru and may exhausted the quota in middle July if at current speed, and local manufacturers thus gradually loosen their prices. The demand for fishmeal does not pick up very much in China now, as rains have influenced aquaculture in most southern regions. A majority of feed plants do not make bulk purchases, subduing the trading at ports. However, China’s port fishmeal stocks have been falling to 100,000 tonnes, so major enterprises now have not very much Peruvian fishmeal in storage and are reluctant to sharply cut down prices. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to steady and slightly adjust in the short run.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 48,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 16,000 tonnes, Shanghai 26,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,250 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,480 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,390 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,620 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in Peru: As of July 7^th (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 2,084,067 tonnes, exhausting 86.37% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 37,000 tonnes per day and 328,933 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are flat today. Cottonseed price is still high amid decreasing supply, boosting cottonseed meal market. U.S. soybean futures ended lower on Wednesday. And the operation rate among soyoil plants remains super high, leading to a consecutive increase in soybean meal stocks. Today, spot soybean meal steadily down by 10-20 CNY/tonne. Moreover, the demand for cottonseed meal is limited due to its low cost performance. These are curbing cottonseed meal market. Nevertheless, the trend of soybean meal is projected to be strong underpinned by the weather condition across crop area, so cottonseed meal may be boosted to fluctuate to stay strong.

(USD $1=CNY ¥7.01)