Today (Jul 10), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures finished higher at over 900 cents on Thursday due to dry weather conditions and good export data, and meal futures also edge higher on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices are steadily higher by 10-20 CNY/tonne, and the market is predicted to see tepid trading for spot contracts and attract some low-level forward contracts. Specifically, the prices sit at 2820-2890 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. (Tianjin 2890, Shandong 2860-2890, Jiangsu 2820-2880, Dongguan 2820-2850, and Guangxi 2840-2850.) Crop weather will continue supporting U.S. soybean futures and Brazilian soybeans still see firm premiums due to decreasing supplies, both of which have led to a rise in the cost of soybean imports. And in China, hog stocks have been recovering, and aquaculture will go into the peak season. Moreover, soybean meal has a greater share in feed formula, for it is a better choice than alternative meals in term of price and value. Hence, the demand for soybean meal has been improving. Domestic oil mills have almost sold out spot soybean meal for July shipments, so that they are inclined to support prices. But soybean meal prices will just have limited rises, as its stocks keep increasing due to high soybean crush. Overall, soybean meal market is predicted to keep range-bound and strengthening. Buyers with adequate stocks are suggested not to chase after excessively high prices, but to make some replenishment on negative basis for forward contracts.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed up on Thursday affected by heat and dryness across the crop area. Rapeseed meal futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose slightly today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settled up 10 CNY/tonne at 2,280-2,370 CNY/tonne, but still seeing light trading. Besides, rapeseed crush stays at low levels as the imports of rapeseed are still restricted amid tensions between Ottawa and Beijing. Likewise, there still exists uncertainty in U.S.-China relations. In addition, the pre-sale for soybean meal in July has been put forward due to improvement in demand. In consequence, the supply of soybean meal available for sale is limited, so the price goes up, which boosts rapeseed meal market. Nevertheless, soybean arrival at ports is huge in quantity from June to August, which leads weekly soybean crush to remain above 2 mln tonnes over the next few weeks. In this case, soybean meal stocks in coastal areas climb up consecutively. Thus, the price rises of meals are limited by bearish factors. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal market may mainly fluctuate to stay strong. Buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,300-11,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,600-12,000 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,600-12,800 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,500-13,600 CNY/tonne.

Fish catches have been over 80% completed in Peru and may exhausted the quota in middle July if at current speed, and local manufacturers thus gradually loosen their prices. The demand for fishmeal does not pick up very much in China now, as rains have influenced aquaculture in most southern regions. A majority of feed plants do not make bulk purchases, subduing the trading at ports. However, China’s port fishmeal stocks have been falling to 100,000 tonnes, so major enterprises now have not very much Peruvian fishmeal in storage and are reluctant to sharply cut down prices. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to steady and slightly adjust in the short run.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 47,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 16,000 tonnes, Shanghai 26,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,250 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,480 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,390 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,620 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices remain flat and down by 20-50 CNY/tonne in some regions today. Soybean meal stocks keep increasing. And the demand for cottonseed meal is limited due to low cost performance, so some traders reduce the price. But cottonseed price is still high amid decreasing supply. U.S. soybean futures ended higher on Thursday and hit 900 cents again, result from heat and dryness across the crop area, coupled with good export situation. Also, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange edged up today, and spot soybean meal steadily up by 10-20 CNY/tonne. Accordingly, the price declines of cottonseed meal are limited by these factors. Nevertheless, the trend of soybean meal is projected to be strong underpinned by the weather condition across crop area, so cottonseed meal may be boosted to fluctuate to stay strong.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.99)