Today (Jul 14), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures further fell on Monday due to the forecast for lower temperatures in the Midwest this month. And meal futures also extend losses on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices mostly drop by 10-30 CNY/tonne and some buck the trend to go up 10-20 CNY/tonne. The spot trading is tepid and there will still be some purchases at low-level basis. Specifically, the prices sit at 2790-2870 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. (Tianjin 2870, Shandong 2830-2880, Jiangsu 2820-2840, Dongguan 2790-2820, and Guangxi 2840-2860.) China imported 11.16 mln tonnes of soybeans in June, a sharp increase of 73% from a year earlier, data from China’s Customs showed. China’s soybean stockpiles have hit 5.63 mln tonnes in coastal regions at present, a year-on-year increase of 32%. Given this, domestic oil mills have been working at maximum capacity and some even have to halt due to swelling soybean meal inventories. Meanwhile, soybean meal shipments have been disrupted in southern China, where several provinces have been hit by the floods. Hence, soybean meal prices are declining to adjust. However, U.S. soybean futures will have limited declines due to weather problems. And domestic oil mills have almost sold out spot soybean meal for July deliveries. Therefore, spot soybean meal prices are stronger than futures prices. Overall, soybean meal market is predicted to have some upward impetus on the back this round of adjustments.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures further declined on Monday. Meals futures in China also fell today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions partly settled down 10 CNY/tonne at 2,230-2,330 CNY/tonne, with not much trading volume. For soybean arrival at ports is huge in quantity in July and August, the operation rate among crushing mills remains super high, leading to a consecutive increase in soybean meal stocks. Besides, the demand for meats and aquatic products is still under impact of COVID-19, which is bearish for rapeseed meal price.

But rapeseed crush stays at low levels as rapeseed supply is tight amid tensions between Ottawa and Beijing. Nevertheless, hog inventory keeps rebounding recently and aquaculture is entering into a peak season, so rapeseed meal stocks stay at lows. Likewise, there still exists uncertainty in relations between U.S. and China, which may limit price declines of rapeseed meal. Hence, short-term rapeseed meal market is predicted to fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon low and stable price.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with a partial decline today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,000-11,300 CNY/tonne, down 200 CNY/tonne from yesterday; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,500-11,700 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,500-12,800 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,300-13,500 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne.

Fish catches have been nearly 90% completed in Peru and may exhausted the quota in middle July if at current speed, and local manufacturers thus gradually loosen their prices. The demand for fishmeal does not pick up very much in China now, as rains have influenced aquaculture in most southern regions. A majority of feed plants do not make bulk purchases, subduing the trading at ports. Hence, port traders have slightly lowered down prices today on concerns over the impact of low-cost new fishmeal. However, China’s port fishmeal stocks have been falling below 100,000 tonnes, so major enterprises now have not very much Peruvian fishmeal in storage and are reluctant to sharply cut down prices. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to steady and slightly adjust in the short run.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 45,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 16,000 tonnes, Shanghai 25,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,250 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,480 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,390 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,620 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in Peru: As of July 11^th (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 2,162,731 tonnes, exhausting 89.63% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 36,000 tonnes per day and 250,269 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices remain flat today. The operation rate among crushing mills is low, and some factories raise cottonseed meal price due to high cost. U.S. soybean futures further declined on Monday as weather forecast called for a temperature decrease in Midwest this month. Also, meals went down on Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and spot soybean meal mostly down by 10-30 CNY/tonne. Besides, the demand for cottonseed meal is limited due to low cost performance, so the price is negotiable. Nevertheless, recent cottonseed meal market is projected to fluctuate to stay strong underpinned by the weather condition across soybean area.

(USD $1=CNY ¥7.00)