Today (Jul 16), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures rose on Wednesday, and meal futures post modest gains on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices mostly go up 10-20 CNY. The spot trading is tepid and there will still be some purchases at low-level basis. Specifically, the prices sit at 2800-2920 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. (Tianjin 2920, Shandong 2865-2880, Jiangsu 2830-2840, Dongguan 2800-2830, and Guangxi 2830-2860.) The recent recovery in hog population and the peak season for aquaculture have together improved the demand for soybean meal in China. Domestic crushers have presold large quantities of July meal output and are propping up prices. Hence, spot soybean meal prices are stronger than futures. However, DCE crush margins have climbed noticeably higher at present, and soybean arrivals at domestic ports have been huge for months. Besides, China bought at least 15-16 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Tuesday. Domestic oil mills have been keeping soybean crush at a very high level and some of them even come to a halt due to bulging meal inventories. Moreover, 10 provinces in China are forecast to see heavy rains in days, which will again affect the delivery of soybean meal. All this may constrain the rises in meal prices. The U.S.-China tensions have been intensified, as the U.S. continues meddling in China’s internal affairs including the South China Sea and Hong Kong. And U.S. soybean futures could still gain support from the crop weather. Overall, soybean meal prices will probably keep range-bound and strengthening on bullish factors.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed up on Wednesday. Meals futures in China moderately rose today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions partly settled up 10-20 CNY/tonne at 2,260-2,350 CNY/tonne, with not much trading volume. Rapeseed crush stays at lows as rapeseed imports are still restricted amid tensions between Ottawa and Beijing. Likewise, there still exists uncertainty in relations between U.S. and China. Besides, soybean meal stocks in July basically have been pre-sold amid better demand, leading to a price hike. And then, rapeseed meal market is boosted to stop falling and bounce a bit. As soybean arrival at ports is huge in quantity, the operation rate among crushing mills remains super high, causing a consecutive increase in soybean meal stocks. Furthermore, the demand for meats and aquatic products is still under impact of COVID-19. Driven by the bearish factors in fundamentals, price rises of rapeseed meal are curbed.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with a partial decline today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,000-11,300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,500-11,700 CNY/tonne, down 200 CNY/tonne partially; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,500-12,800 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,300-13,500 CNY/tonne.

As Peruvian fishing companies have completed more than 90% of the country’s 2.413-mln-tonne of anchovy quota till now and are expected to exhausted the total quota this month, local manufacturers have little intention to support prices. And in China, the demand for fishmeal does not pick up very much, for rains have influenced aquaculture in most southern regions. Hence, domestic traders have slightly lowered down their offer prices to attract some purchases. However, fishmeal inventories at ports have fallen below 100,000 tonnes in China at present, so traders do not intend to continue reducing prices due to small Peruvian fishmeal in stock. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to steady with slight declines in the short run.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 45,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 16,000 tonnes, Shanghai 25,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,250 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,480 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,290 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,520 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices mainly keep steady and partly rise by 20-50 CNY/tonne today. The operation rate among crushing mills is low, and the cost remains high. U.S. soybean futures further rose on Wednesday. And meal futures moderately went up on Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and spot soybean meal mostly up by 10-20 CNY/tonne. Hence, cottonseed meal market is bolstered by these factors. However, China bought at least 15-16 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Tuesday driven by a distinct improvement in crush margins. And crushing mills raise the operation rate amid huge arrival at ports in recent months. Some even halt the operation due to overstock. Besides, the demand for cottonseed meal is limited due to low cost performance, so the final price is negotiable. In addition, U.S. interferes internal affairs of China over the South China Sea and Hong Kong, escalating tensions between two sides. Moreover, markets are concerned about weather condition across soybean area. Leading by bullish news, cottonseed meal market is likely to fluctuate to keep strengthening in the near term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.99)