Today (Jul 22), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell on Tuesday, and Dalian meal futures were set to open lower but are higher than the previous close on Wednesday. Spot soybean meal prices see a slight decline of 10-20 CNY/tonne, still attracting some low-level purchases. Specifically, the prices sit at 2860-2980 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. (Tianjin 2980, Shandong 2960-2970, Jiangsu 2905-2930, Dongguan 2860-2880, and Guangxi 2920-2950.) Chinese importers ramp up soybean purchases, as crush margins for imported soybeans on Dalian Commodity Exchange turn better. The July and August soybean arrivals at ports are forecast to hit a monthly average of over 10 mln tonnes, and domestic crushers are working at their maximum capacities. Moreover, China may sell a 3-mln-tonne of GM soybeans to clear storage, so as to make room for U.S. soybeans arriving at ports since October this year, according to market sources. An adequate supply in the market is still constraining rises in soybean meal prices. But domestic demand for soybean meal is noticeably improving, as swine stocks have seen a recovery for six straight months and the aquaculture has also been in full swing now. Besides, soybean meal is also a better choice than alternative meals in price and value now. Soybean meal inventories saw a decline for a second week of 4.7% to 879,000 tonnes in spite of high operation rates, and some crushers have also presold August soybean meal for more than a half. Besides, the United States has added 11 more Chinese companies into its entity list, which intensifies tensions between these two nations. And Chicago investors also keep a close eye on soybean crop weather conditions now. Overall, soybean meal market will swing to higher on bullish factors, and buyers are suggested to buy appropriately on low forward basis.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures fell on Tuesday, and meal futures in China also declined today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settled down 10 CNY/tonne at 2,340-2,440 CNY/tonne, with tepid trading. The crush margins of soybean futures have improved, spurring an increase in China’s buying. In this case, the monthly soybean arrival at ports is upwards of 10 mln tonnes, so soyoil mills raise the operation rate, dragging down rapeseed meal price. But rapeseed meal inventory stays at low levels as rapeseed imports are still restricted amid tensions between Ottawa and Beijing. Besides, aquaculture has entered into a peak season, leading to a recovery of breeding demand. Moreover, the spot goods available for sale are not enough, and some mills have sold over a half of stocks in August. On the other hand, there still exist large uncertainties in weather condition across soybean area, and tensions between U.S. and China have heightened. Accordingly, the price declines of rapeseed meal are limited, and short-term market will likely fluctuate to keep strengthening.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,000-11,300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,500-11,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,500-12,700 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,300-13,400 CNY/tonne.

As Peruvian fishing companies have completed over 90% of the country’s 2.413-mln-tonne of anchovy quota and due to disappointing sales of fresh fishmeal, local manufacturers have little intention to support prices and offer preferential prices for bulk purchases. And in China, the demand for fishmeal does not pick up very much when rains have influenced aquaculture in most southern regions, which constrains domestic fishmeal market. However, fishmeal inventories at ports have fallen to 92,000 tonnes in China at present, so traders do not intend to continue reducing prices due to small Peruvian fishmeal in stock. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to steady with slight adjustments in the short run.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 42,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 15,000 tonnes, Shanghai 23,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,250 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,480 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,290 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,520 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in Peru: As of July 20^th (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 2,297,439 tonnes, exhausting 95.21% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 33,000 tonnes per day and 115,561 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are stable with some rises of 20-50 CNY/tonne today. For the moment, the operation rate among crushing mills is low, and the cost remains high, boosting cottonseed meal market. Besides, soybean import is huge in quantity in recent months due to a distinct improvement in crush margins, so crushing mills raise the operation rate. Meal futures decline on Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and spot soybean meal steadily down by 10-20 CNY/tonne. However, U.S. added eleven more Chinese firms to its sanction list, escalating tensions between two sides. And markets are concerned about weather condition across soybean area. Leading by bullish factors, cottonseed meal market is likely to keep strengthening in the near term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.97)