Today (Jul 24), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures rose on Thursday, boosted by strong export sales. And meal futures also climb further higher on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices see a rise of 10-50 CNY/tonne, still attracting some low-level purchases. Specifically, the prices sit at 2940-3050 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. (Tianjin 3050, Shandong 3000-3030, Jiangsu 2960-3000, Dongguan 2940-2970, and Guangxi 2960-2980.) China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in an announcement this morning informed the US to close its consulate general in Chengdu city, which escalates tensions between Beijing and Washington. Moreover, swine stocks have been recovering for months and the aquaculture has also been in full swing now, and soybean meal takes up a bigger proportion in feed formula due to its price advantages; hence, China’s soybean meal stockpiles have been falling due to improving demand. Domestic crushers are thereby stalling sales for higher prices. Actually, Chinese importers are increasing soybean purchases, spurred by growing DCE crush margins for imported soybeans, and domestic crushers have maintained high operation rates as Jul-Aug soybean imports will hit a monthly average of 10 mln tonnes. Despite all these, soybean meal market will still swing to go upward, as participants pay much more attention to US-China tensions and to U.S. soybean crop weather.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed up on Thursday. Rapeseed meal futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange swung to edge down. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settled down 10 CNY/tonne at 2,330-2,430 CNY/tonne, with tepid trading. The crushing margins of imported soybean futures have improved, spurring China’s purchase of U.S. soybean. And the monthly soybean arrival at ports is upwards of 10 mln tonnes in July and August, so soyoil mills raise the operation rate. With the bearish factors staying in fundamentals, rapeseed meal price is dragged down. However, rapeseed crush stays at low levels as rapeseed supply gets tightened amid tensions between Ottawa and Beijing. Additionally, China’s Foreign Ministry informed the US embassy in China on Friday to shut its consulate general in Chengdu, escalating tensions between the two countries. Moreover, US soybean is in a key period for growing, which may be easily affected by the weather condition. Beyond that, soybean meal stocks go down for the second week in a row on an improvement in demand, so the spot goods available for sale is insufficient. And some oil mills have sold a half of inventory in August. Therefore, rapeseed meal price is supported by advance of soybean meal price. Buyers can wait for low and stable price to make proper replenishment.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with a decline today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,000-11,300 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne from yesterday; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,500-11,700 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,500-12,700 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,100-13,400 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne from yesterday.

The demand in the aquaculture sector for fishmeal does not pick up very much, as many regions have been suffering from heavy rains in China for weeks. Moreover, the cost of importing fresh fishmeal will be lower relatively. Hence, some traders undercut to lock in profits today, which adds some bearish sentiment to domestic market. However, fresh fishmeal cargoes have not reached ports yet, and fishmeal inventories at domestic ports have fallen to 92,000 tonnes now, so traders do not intend to continue reducing prices due to small Peruvian fishmeal in stock. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to steady with slight adjustments in the short run.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 42,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 15,000 tonnes, Shanghai 24,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,250 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,480 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,290 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,520 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in Peru: As of July 21^st (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 2,307,507 tonnes, exhausting 95.63% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 33,000 tonnes per day and 105,493 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices turn to be stale today. For the moment, factories have no pressure from inventory as the operation rate among crushing mills is low, and the cost remains high. U.S. soybean futures on Thursday and meal futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange further rose due to strong export demand. Spot soybean meal was up 10-50 CNY/tonne. These were supporting cottonseed meal market. Besides, the crush margins of imported soybean futures have improved, spurring China to increase purchase of U.S. soybean. In July and August, the monthly arrival of soybean at ports will be past 10 mln tonnes, leading to a super high operation rate among soyoil mills. Moreover, the tensions between U.S. and China have been escalating. And markets are concerned about weather condition across soybean area. Leading by bullish factors, cottonseed meal market is likely to keep strengthening in the near term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.99)