I. Soybean

 

Price

 

Domestic soybean: China has been releasing grains into the market. While the supply of soybeans gets increasing in the market, the demand is not improving. However, heavy rains have hit some regions in Jiangxi, Anhui and Hubei provinces, and even led to floods, so that many farmlands have been affected. This could lead to a decline in the production of early soybean crops. Therefore, there is now also a limited fall in soybean prices. Overall, domestic soybean market is predicted to fluctuate with a weakening trend next week.

 

Imported soybean: The supply of imported soybeans is relatively limiting at Shandong ports, as traders there are controlling the quantity in circulation. In addition, imported GM soybean prices have some advantages against domestic soybeans, which also supports the imported soybean market. However, domestic soybean prices keep falling, followed by non-GM soybeans at ports, which is negative to the market. In addition, Chinese importers are increasing U.S. soybean purchases, spurred by growing DCE crush margins. This will add to the supply in the market. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, imported soybean market is predicted to fluctuate with a weakening trend next week. Besides, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs informed the U.S. side to close its consulate general in Chengdu city, after the U.S. suddenly requested China to shut down its consulate in Houston. The escalating could affect the rhythm of China in purchasing U.S. soybeans, so participants can keep an eye on it.

 

China's Soybean Weekly Price（CNY/Tonne）
Region		Grade	This week	Last week	Variation
Northeast China	Heilongjiang	Domestic, GB Grade 3	5,300	5,560	-260
	Inner Mongolia	Domestic, GB Grade 3	5,360	5,600	-240
	Heilongjiang	Imported, Russia	5,000	5,130	-130
East China	Jiangsu	Domestic soybean	6,800	6,850	-50
North China	Tianjin	Non-GM, Kazakhstan	N/A	N/A
		Non-GM, Ukraine	5,030	N/A
		Non-GM,  Canada	N/A	N/A
		GM, US PNW	N/A	N/A
		GM, US GULF	N/A	N/A
East China	Shandong	Import, PNW	N/A	4,100
		Import, US Gulf	3,650	3500-3600	50-150
		Import, Uruguay	4,000	3630-3680	320-370
National average		Domestic soybean	5,300	5,560	-260
		Imported soybean	3,600	3,565	35

 

 

 

 

Crush: Some crushers are facing ballooning soybean meal inventories or temporary soybean supply shortages as cargoes are unable to row ashore after heavy rains pulled up waters, so operation rates have fallen from high levels this week (July 18-24). Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,955,300 tonnes (meal 1,544,687 tonnes and oil 371,507 tonnes), down 108,200 tonnes or 5.24% from 2,063,500 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 56.32%, down 3.11% from 59.43% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to be around 1.96 mln tonnes and 2.05 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks, respectively.

 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 71,791,264 tonnes in the soybean crop year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), up 2,684,279 tonnes or 3.88% from 69,106,985 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 49,807,750 tonnes, up 3,852,165 tonnes or 8.38% from 45,955,585 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019.

 

 

Inventory: Soybean stocks reduce a little bit in China this week, as soybean crush is higher than the quantity into the stock. In the week as of July 24, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 5,738,100 tonnes, down 120,500 tonnes by 2.06% from 5,858,600 tonnes last week and up by 17.09% from 4,900,400 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean stocks will gradually build up along with huge soybean arrivals in July and August.

 

 

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 37 cargoes with 2.428 mln tonnes this week, a total of 110 cargoes with 7.232 mln tonnes for July so far. The import is predicted to be 157.5 cargoes or 10.321 mln tonnes for July, 10.1 mln tonnes for August, 8.8 mln tonnes for September, 8.1 mln tonnes for October, 8.2 mln tonnes for November, and 8.0 mln tonnes for December. Statistics will be updated every week on account of fresh buying and renewed shipments.  

 

II. Soybean Meal

 

Price: Domestic soybean meal prices continue rising this week (July 20-24). As of this Friday, prices mostly settles up 80-130 CNY at 2,940-3,050 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

 

China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price  (CNY/Tonne)
Region		This week	Last week	Variation
Northeast China	Jilin	3,120	3,040	80
North China	Tianjin	3,050	2,940	110
	Hebei	3,050	2,930	120
Central China	Hubei	3,050	2,950	100
	Henan	3,110	2,980	130
East China	Shandong	3,000	2,880	120
	Jiangsu	2,955	2,845	110
	Zhejiang	3,000	2,850	150
	Shanghai	2,960	2,860	100
	Fujian	2,980	2,850	130
	Anhui	3,050	2,910	140
South China	Guangdong	2,940	2,840	100
	Guangxi	2,980	2,880	100
National average		2,989	2,879	110

 

 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks are slightly lower along with quick soybean meal shipments and a decline in soybean crush. In the week as of July 24, China’s soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 875,100 tonnes, down 3,900 tonnes by 0.44% from 879,000 tonnes last week yet up by 5.86% from 826,600 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Soybean crush is predicted to stay high at 1.96 mln tonnes next week, so soybean meal stocks will not see sharp decline.

 

 

III. Soybean Oil

 

Price: Domestic soybean oil prices continue an uptrend this week (July 20-24). As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 6370-6550 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions, mostly up 140-320 CNY/tonne. The overall nationwide price index moves to 6,450 CNY/tonne, a weekly rise of 200 CNY or 3.2% from 5,920 CNY/tonne in the previous week.

 

China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (CNY/Tonne)
Region		Grade	This week	Last week	Variation
Northeast China	Dalian, Liaoning	GB Grade 1
		GB Grade 3
North China	Qinhuangdao, Hebei	GB Grade 1
	Tianjin	GB Grade 1	6,370	6,210	160
East China	Rizhao, Shandong	GB Grade 1	6,400	6,200	200
	Xiamen, Fujian	GB Grade 1	N/A	N/A
	Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu	GB Grade 1	6460-6480	6,320	140-160
Central China	Zhengzhou, Henan	GB Grade 1	N/A	N/A
South China	Dongguan, Guangdong	GB Grade 1	6530-6550	6270-6300	250-260
	Fangchenggang, Guangxi	GB Grade 1	N/A	N/A
		GB Grade 3	N/A	N/A
National average		GB Grade 1	6,450	6,250	200
		GB Grade 3	6,400	6,200	200

 

 

Inventory: Soybean oil stocks continue rising this week, as soybean crush still stays high and one oil mill has also imported a lot of crude soybean oil. In the week ending July 24, China’s soybean oil commercial inventory has totaled 1,236,250 tonnes, up 39,450 tonnes by 3.3% from 1,196,800 tonnes last week, up 164,250 tonnes by 15.32% from 1,072,000 tonnes last month, yet down 219,250 tonnes by 15.06% from 1,455,500 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,348,500 tonnes.