Today (Jul 29), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures tumbled on Tuesday, and meal futures also drop on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices drop 30-70 CNY/tonne to 2,910-3,030 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, but they rebound 10-20 CNY in northeast China. (Tianjin 3040, Shandong 3040-3060, Jiangsu 2990-3000, Dongguan 2900-2950, and Guangxi 2940-2980.) China’s soybean arrivals are forecast to reach 10.1 mln tonnes in August, and domestic crushing mills have been working at very high capacity. Soybean meal market falls into thin trading this week, as mid-to-downstream buyers are cautious in chasing high prices after completing replenishment in the last two weeks. Soybean meal prices thereby end a rally to decline. But hog stocks have been increasing and aquaculture is also in full swing in China now. Moreover, soybean meal has a higher price value than its alternative meals. Soybean meal inventories still fall amid high soybean crush, also a sign that the demand is improving. Besides, crushers have a huge quantity of contracts waiting to be fulfilled. And China and the United States are still in tensions. Overall, soybean meal prices are expected to have small downside space and to rally on the back of this decline. Buyers suggested to wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Imported rapeseed meal: As weekly crop report showed that soybean condition has improved, U.S. soybean futures fell on Tuesday and meal futures in China declined today. Rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settled down 10 CNY/tonne at 2,300-2,400 CNY/tonne, with tepid trading. China keeps purchasing soybeans with a monthly soybean arrival of over 10 mln tonnes at ports in July and August, leading to a super high operation rate in crushing mills. Hence, rapeseed meal price is weighed down. However, rapeseed stocks stay at low levels as rapeseed imports are restricted amid tensions between China and Canada. Moreover, the breeding industry is resuming gradually and aquaculture has entered into a peak season, seeing a recovery of demand. Besides, the tensions between U.S. and China have been escalating, and U.S. soybean market is driven by weather condition across crop area. Actually, rapeseed meal futures prices are higher than the previous closing price today, so it is predicted that rapeseed meal market will not fall too much.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with a decline today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,900-11,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,400-12,500 CNY/tonne, down 200 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,100-13,300 CNY/tonne, down 100-200 CNY/tonne.

The demand in the aquaculture and swine sectors for fishmeal does not pick up very much due to the African swine fever and as many regions have been suffering from heavy rains in China for weeks. Moreover, the cost of importing fresh fishmeal will be lower relatively. Hence, some traders undercut to lock in profits today, which adds some bearish sentiment to domestic market. However, fresh fishmeal cargoes have not reached ports en masse yet, and fishmeal inventories at domestic ports have fallen to 93,000 tonnes now, so traders do not intend to continue reducing prices due to small Peruvian fishmeal in stock. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to steady with slight adjustments in the short run.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 42,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 15,000 tonnes, Shanghai 25,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,250 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,480 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,290 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,520 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in Peru: As of July 26th (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 2,322,800 tonnes, exhausting 96.26% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 30,000 tonnes per day and 90,200 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are steady today. For the moment, factories have no pressure from inventory as the operation rate among crushing mills is low and the demand in aquaculture has entered into a peak season. And the cost remains high. Hence, cottonseed meal market is supported. On the other hand, the improvement in crush margins of imported soybean futures has stimulated China’s purchase of U.S. soybeans. In July and August, the monthly arrival of soybean at ports will be past 10 mln tonnes, leading to a super high operation rate among soyoil mills. US soybean futures plunged on Tuesday. Also, meals futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped today, and spot soybean meal down by 10-50 CNY/tonne. Thus, cottonseed meal market is dampened by these factors. In the near term, the price will likely fluctuate affected by the falls of soybean meal. But due to concerns over U.S.-China tensions and limited availability of goods supply, cottonseed meal market will be still in a strong trend overall.

(USD $1=CNY ¥7.00)