Today (Jul 31), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures closed with gains on strong export demand on Thursday, and meal futures are fractionally higher on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily fluctuating by 10-20 CNY/tonne to 2,900-3,020 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, and the market is still in tepid trading. (Tianjin 3020, Shandong 2980-2990, Jiangsu 2930-2970, Dongguan 2900-2960, and Guangxi 2940-2970.)

The declines in soybean meal prices can be attributed to huge soybean imports, high soybean crush and lukewarm trading this week. Soybean imports will be huge in both July and August, and domestic crushers still maintain high operation rates. Meanwhile, mid-to-downstream buyers are cautious after completing replenishment in the last two weeks, so that soybean meal goes into thin trading this week.

But as farming sectors are recovering, soybean meal inventories have been declined for a third consecutive week in spite of huge soybean imports and high soybean crush, a sign that the the demand is still not bad. Moreover, crushers are mainly carrying out contracts at present, for some of them have completed the sales of August soybean meal and some forward-month sales. Besides, market participants are still concerned about China-U.S. relations, as the Trump administration is preparing to order China to sharply reduce the number of diplomats posted in the United States, according to media reports.

Soybean meal market is predicted to have some upward impetus, and buyers are suggested to wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment and not to chase after excessively higher prices.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures went up on Wednesday, and meal futures in China rose today. Rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settled up 10 CNY/tonne at 2,300-2,390 CNY/tonne, with tepid trading. Rapeseed crush stays at low levels due to limited rapeseed imports amid tensions between China and Canada. Moreover, the breeding industry is resuming gradually and aquaculture has entered into a peak season, seeing a recovery of demand. Besides, the ties between U.S. and China have been souring, and U.S. soybean market is driven by weather condition across crop area. Accordingly, the overall soybean meal market keeps strengthening, which boosts rapeseed meal market. Nevertheless, the operation rate in soyoil mills as monthly soybean arrival at ports is past 10 mln tonnes. Thus, the price rises of meal futures are curbed by these bearish factors. And short-term rapeseed meal price is projected to go strongly with fluctuations.

Imported fishmeal:  Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,900-11,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,400-12,500 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,100-13,300 CNY/tonne.

The demand in the aquaculture and swine sectors for fishmeal does not pick up very much, and the cost of importing fresh fishmeal will be lower relatively; hence, some traders are trying to ramp up shipments to book profits, which adds bearish sentiment to domestic market. However, fresh fishmeal cargoes have not reached ports en masse yet, and fishmeal inventories at domestic ports have fallen to 95,000 tonnes now, so traders are reluctant to continue reducing prices due to small Peruvian fishmeal in stock. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to steady with slight declines in the short run.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 43,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 15,000 tonnes, Shanghai 26,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: It is quoted steadily at 1,250 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,480 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,290 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,520 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in Peru: As of July 28th (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 2,324,523 tonnes, exhausting 96.33% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 30,000 tonnes per day and 88,477 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady with partial declines of 20-50 CNY/tonne today. Soybean meal trading gets lighter recently, so its price starts to go down, which drags down cottonseed meal price. For the moment, the operation rate among crushing mills is low, and factories have no pressure from inventory as the demand in aquaculture has entered into a peak season. And the cost remains high. Hence, cottonseed meal market is supported by these factors. In the near term, the price will likely fluctuate affected by the falls of soybean meal. But due to concerns over U.S.-China tensions and limited availability of goods supply, cottonseed meal market will be still in a strong trend overall.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.98)