Today (Aug 5), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures post sharp losses on Tuesday, as the U.S. Agriculture Department's weekly crop conditions report rated 73% of the soybean crop as good to excellent. And meal futures also fall on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go down 10-40 CNY/tonne to 2,880-2,990 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, and the trading is thin. (Tianjin 2990, Shandong 2955-2980, Jiangsu 2900-2940, Dongguan 2880-2930, and Guangxi 2910-2940.) China’s soybean arrivals will surpass 10 million tonnes in August and crushing plants are maintaining extremely high operation rates, which are both potentially bearish to the market. Moreover, the USDA is expected to raise the production estimates for U.S. soybeans in its August report, bolstered by benign crop conditions. However, the feed demand in hog sector keeps increasing and soybean meal has a higher value-to-price ratio than alternative meals, which together enhance the demand for soybean meal. Soybean meal stocks continue a downtrend by a weekly decline of 1.7% to 860,000 tonnes, even as soybean imports remain huge and crushers maintain high operation rates. Besides, millers are mainly carrying out contracts at present after having completed the sales of August soybean meal, and soybean meal was in strong trading for forward contracts yesterday. Overall, soybean meal prices will have small downside space.

Imported rapeseed meal: US soybean crops have prospects for high yield at harvest. And a company named Agroconsult from Brazil expects that Brazilian soybean production in 2020/21 will jump to 132.60 mln tonnes. U.S. soybean futures posted a drastic decline on Tuesday. And meal futures in China edged down after low opens today. Rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settled down 20-40 CNY/tonne at 2,260-2,330 CNY/tonne, with tepid trading. On the other hand, soybean arrival at ports will past 10 mln tonnes in August, leading to a super high operation rate. Besides, US soybean crops are growing well, so rapeseed meal price is curbed by ample supply of feedstock. In addition, rapeseed crush stays at low levels due to limited rapeseed imports amid tensions between China and Canada. However, the demand for hog feed is increasing, and aquaculture has entered into a peak season and breeding industry is also recovering gradually. And soybean meal trading volume totaled 1.31 mln tonnes yesterday. Furthermore, people still have fears about the rising tension between the US and China, and US soybean market is still driven by weather condition. Accordingly, the overall soybean meal market keeps strengthening, which boosts rapeseed meal price. And short-term rapeseed meal price is projected to fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can stay on the sideline and make appropriate replenishment on the dips.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,800-11,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,400-11,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,400-12,500 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,000-13,100 CNY/tonne. As the weather gets favorable and following a rise in hog prices, aquaculture and hog breeding are both recovering, which leads to a pickup in the demand for fishmeal. Meantime, fresh fishmeal cargoes from Peru are reaching ports, and the cost of import is gradually declining. This is bearish to domestic fishmeal prices. Merely, the cost of producing feed is slightly higher after the Chinese government banned the uses of antibiotics, and prices of other feedstocks are also going up tracking rises in corn prices; hence, fishmeal prices become a little more resilient recently. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are predicted to steady with a weakening trend in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 44,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 15,000 tonnes, Shanghai 27,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Sept/Oct shipments are quoted steadily at 1,200 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,220 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,450 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in Peru: As of July 31st (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 2,324,853 tonnes, exhausting 96.35% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 30,000 tonnes per day and 88,147 tonnes remaining available.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices keep steady today. Cottonseed is pricey and factories have no pressure from inventory, bolstering cottonseed meal market. But the huge imports of soybean, coupled with high crush still carry the potential to bear the market. U.S. soybean futures plunged on Tuesday as the good-to-excellent rate of soybean crop was as high as 73%. Meal futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange fell back today, and spot soybean meal dropped by 10-40 CNY/tonnes in coastal regions. Moreover, the demand for cottonseed meal is limited due to lower cost performance compared to soybean meal. Thus, these have dampened cottonseed meal price. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal price will fluctuate at a narrow range. But over the concerns about U.S.-China tensions and increasing demand in breeding, cottonseed meal market still maintain a strong trend overall.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.98)