Today (Aug 11), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures closed higher on Monday, but meal futures swing to edge lower on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices fluctuate by 10-20 CNY/tonne to 2,810-2,910 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, attracting some low-level purchases. (Tianjin 2920, Shandong 2865-2890, Jiangsu 2810-2820, Dongguan 2800-2820, and Guangxi 2810-2850.) 74% of U.S. soybean crops are rated in good to excellent condition, 2 percentage points above the market forecast. The benign crop condition is raising expectations of a big soybean harvest in the U.S., which is pressuring the global supply. Soybean arrivals will be substantial in China in both August and September and will possibly hit the monthly average of 8 mln tonnes in the fourth quarter. China’s soybean crush still stay at a very high level, and soybean meal inventory has risen by 9% weekly to 935,000 tonnes. Seeing increasing supply pressure, some millers in Guangdong and some other regions have been seeking to quicken deliveries. But many millers have sold out August soybean meal and also completed a high proportion of forward sales, so that they are propping up prices while busy carrying out contracts. In the near term, soybean meal market is predicted to keep range-bound.

Imported rapeseed meal: US soybean futures closed higher on Monday on growing export. Meal futures in China moved lower after high opens. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settled at 2,220-2,300 CNY/tonne, with tepid trading. Rapeseed crush stays at low levels due to limited rapeseed imports amid tensions between China and Canada. Besides, aquaculture has entered into a peak season and breeding industry is also recovering gradually. In this case, soybean meal for August contract has been basically sold out. Moreover, the overall soybean meal market still keep strengthening amid worries about rising tensions between US and China, boosting rapeseed meal market. However, soybean arrival at ports in August will surpass 10 mln tonnes, leading to a super high operation rate. Consequently, soybean meal stocks also stop declining and start rising. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, short-term rapeseed meal price will likely fluctuate at a narrow range.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with a decline today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,700-10,900 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne from yesterday; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,200-11,300 CNY/tonne, down 100-200 CNY; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,100-12,300 CNY/tonne, down 100-400 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 12,600-12,700 CNY/tonne, down 100-200 CNY/tonne. Fresh Peruvian fishmeal of lower cost is reaching ports and there are few purchases at high rates in the market, so that some traders have flexibly undercut their offers today. This has injected some bearish sentiment to domestic fishmeal market. However, the demand for fishmeal is improving as aquaculture is recovering under clear weather, which may reduce the downside space in the market. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable with slight declines in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 45,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 15,000 tonnes, Shanghai 27,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Sept/Oct shipments are quoted steadily at 1,200 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,220 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,450 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in Peru: There was a suspension of fish catching between Aug 1-5. Up to now, fish catches in the first season of 2020 total 2,325,142 tonnes, exhausting 96.36% of the total quota of 2.413 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 27,000 tonnes per day and 87,858 tonnes remaining available. The fishing activity will continue till August 15th.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices mainly stay stable and decrease by 30 CNY/tonne in several regions today. U.S. soybean expects a bumper harvest, straining on global supply. Soybean arrival at ports is huge in quantity in August and September, and could be as high as 8 mln tonnes each month in the fourth quarter. With soybean crush staying at high levels, soybean meal inventory has increased by 9% weekly to 935,000 tonnes, which puts pressure on crushing mills. Besides, the demand for cottonseed meal is reduced as feed mills adjust the feed formula due to its lower cost performance compared to soybean meal. Consequently, cottonseed oil trading gets lighter, depressing cottonseed meal price. However, cottonseed is pricey, pushing up the cost, so factories prop up cottonseed meal price. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal market is predicted to fluctuate to fall slightly.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.97)