Today (Aug 19), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures edged lower on Tuesday, as 72% of U.S. soybean crops were rated in good-to-excellent condition, which was above the 53% last year. Meal futures expand their early losses on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily drop by 10-20 CNY/tonne to 2,810-2,930 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, in tepid trading. (Tianjin 2930, Shandong 2865-2900, Jiangsu 2840-2860, Dongguan 2810-2830, and Guangxi 2840-2860.) Expectations of a bumper U.S. soybean harvest grow as Crop Tour also pointed to a strong crop yield potential. China’s soybean arrivals at ports are forecast to be 10.35 mln tonnes and 8.9 mln tonnes in August and September, so crushing plants are working at high rates. As of August 14^th, domestic soybean meal stockpiles rose by 10% weekly to 1.03 mln tonnes in coastal regions, and some millers have started to quicken deliveries under mounting stock pressure. However, market participants may still bet on U.S. soybean weather premium, and China’s purchases are also supportive of U.S. soybean futures. In addition, the demand for soybean meal in China goes stronger along with a recovery in the breeding industry. With many outstanding contracts in hand, domestic millers tend to prop up prices. Overall, soybean meal prices will swing at a narrow range in the short term.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday. Also, meal futures in China today fell back after low opens. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settled down 10-20 CNY/tonne at 2,230-2,310 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. China is still active in purchasing US soybeans. With huge imports in August and September, soybean crush will stay at high levels. Based on this, soybean meal stocks keep bounding, curbing rapeseed meal price. However, rapeseed crush still stays at low levels due to limited rapeseed imports amid tensions between China and Canada. Besides, aquaculture has entered into a peak season, and livestock breeding is also recovering gradually, so rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas has fallen for consecutive two weeks. Additionally, rapeseed meal price may be underpinned by concerns over rising tension between U.S. and China. Thus, short-term rapeseed meal price will probably fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can wait for low and stable price to make proper replenishment.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,900-11,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,800-11,900 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 12,200-12,500 CNY/tonne. More and more fresh fishmeal cargoes are arriving at domestic ports and are of lower cost, while the demand is not as good as expected; hence, many traders undercut prices to lock in profits. This is adding bearish sentiment to the market. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to move under pressure in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 47,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 14,000 tonnes, Shanghai 29,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Sept/Oct shipments are quoted at 1,220 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,450 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,220 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,450 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in Peru: The first fishing season for centre-north oceans in 2020 has concluded on August 15; and for southern regions, the maximum allowable catch quota is 435,000 tonnes, starting on August 1.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable with partial declines of 40-50 CNY/tonne today. The operation rate will maintain high levels as soybean arrival at ports is huge in quantity. In this case, soybean meal stocks in coastal regions rally by 10% to 1.03 mln tonnes compared to the previous week, which puts pressure on crushing mills. Meal futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange fall back with low opens today, and spot soybean meal in coastal regions steadily drops by 10-20 CNY/tonne. In addition, the demand for cottonseed meal is reduced as feed mills adjust the feed formula due to its lower cost performance compared to soybean meal. Consequently, cottonseed oil trading gets lighter, depressing cottonseed meal price. But cottonseed is pricey, pushing up the cost. Accordingly, factories have intention to prop up price. It is expected that short-term cottonseed meal market may fluctuate at a narrow range.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.92)