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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--8/31/2020

2020-08-31 www.cofeed.com

Today (Aug 31), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

 

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures sharply rose last Friday on strong demand from China and as the market worried that high temperatures and little rain could affect U.S. soybean yield, and also continue shooting higher above 960 cents today. Meal futures also open high and climb on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up 20-50 CNY/tonne to 2,890-3,030 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, with improving trade at low-level prices. (Tianjin 3030, Shandong 2940-2960, Jiangsu 2920-2940, Dongguan 2890-2900, and Guangxi 2920-2940.) Spot soybean meal prices are further higher today, bolstered by rising U.S. soybean prices and as domestic millers still have a lot of outstanding contracts. However, domestic soybean crush remains high due to huge imports and soybean meal has also been in slow shipment for weeks, so that soybean meal stocks have amounted to 1.20 mln tonnes this week, a weekly rise of 5% and a year-over-year increase of 55%. Some millers are seeking to ramp up shipments, which may limit the upward space of meal prices. Overall, short-term soybean meal prices will probably fluctuate to rise under the support of higher U.S. soybean prices. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips, but not to chase after excessively higher prices. And participants can keep an eye on crop weather in the U.S. producing regions.

 

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed sharply higher on Friday on China’s brisk demand and concerns over lower-than-expected yields this autumn. And meal futures in China today move higher after opening gains. Rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles up 10-30 CNY/tonne at 2,280-2,350 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. Besides, rapeseed crush still stays at low levels due to limited rapeseed imports amid tensions between China and Canada. And rapeseed meal stocks in coastal regions have fallen for four weeks in a row, tightening the supply. Last week, rapeseed meal inventory decreased to 11,000 tonnes, a decline of 49%. Moreover, oil mills have many contracts remain to be fulfilled as livestock breeding is recovering gradually, which leads meals prices to go up. But soybean crush remains super high as soybean arrival at ports is huge in quantity, and U.S. soybean is about to go marketing. Therefore, market is cautious in chasing up price, and short-term rapeseed meal price will probably follow soybean meal to fluctuate to rebound (Only for reference).

 

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices decline today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9900-10000 CNY/tonne, down 100-200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400 CNY/tonne, down 100-200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,300 CNY/tonne, down100-200 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,600-11,900 CNY/tonne, down 100-200 CNY/tonne. Domestic traders are undercutting prices to lock profits, as new fishmeal cargoes are arriving at ports and as downstream demand is not as good as expected and even reduces in northern markets, which is undermining domestic fishmeal market.

 

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 45,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 14,000 tonnes, Shanghai 28,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 7,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.

 

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Sept/Oct shipments are quoted at 1,220 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,450 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,220 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,450 USD/tonne.

 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable and drop by 20-70 CNY/tonne in several regions today. Soybean crush maintain high levels as soybean arrival at ports is huge in quantity. Soybean meal stocks in coastal regions increase by 5% to 1.2 mln tonnes from last week and jump 55% higher than the same period last year. In this case, some plants are faced with over stock and urge the delivery, which limits the upward space of meals prices. Besides, the demand for cottonseed meal is reduced as feed mills adjust the feed formula due to its lower cost performance compared to soybean meal. Consequently, cottonseed meal trading gets lighter, depressing its price. But cottonseed is pricey, pushing up the cost. Accordingly, factories have intention to prop up price. Meal futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange today extend the opening gains, and spot soybean meal in coastal regions grows by 20-50 CNY/tonne, bringing cottonseed meal market some bullish support. It is predicted that cottonseed meal market may relatively remain flat in the near term.

 

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.86)