I. August soybean crush in China

China’s soybean crush totals 8,912,800 tonnes in August (meal 7,041,112 tonnes and oil 1,693,432 tonnes), a decline of 28,700 tonnes or 0.32% from 8,941,500 tonnes in July, but a rise of 17.71% from 7,571,450 tonnes a year earlier, according to final detailed investigation and verification by Cofeed.

Soybean crush nationwide totaled 82,674,950 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/2020 (from Oct 1st, 2019), up 5,150,000 tonnes by 6.64% from 77,524,950 tonnes in 2018/2019. In the calendar year of 2020 (from Jan 1st, 2020), national soybean crush totaled 60,752,450 tonnes, up 6,285,0000 tonnes by 11.53% from 54,467,450 tonnes in 2019.

Fig.: Soybean Crush in China by Month

Details for monthly soybean crush by region are shown as follows:

II. Soybean imports in China

China imported 10.0914 mln tonnes of soybean in July, a reduction of 1.0688 mln tonnes or 9.58% from 11.1602 mln tonnes in June yet an increase of 1.4506 mln tonnes or 16.79% from 8.6408 mln tonnes in July 2019, data by China’s Customs showed. January-July 2020 soybean imports totaled 55.1347 mln tonnes in China, up 8.3016 mln tonnes or 17.73% from 46.8331 mln tonnes in the same period last year.

Brazil was still the top supplier. China imported 8.1778 mln tonnes of soybeans from Brazil in July, down 2.3342 mln tonnes or 22.21% from 10.512 mln tonnes in the previous month, but up 1.7562 mln tonnes or 27.35% from 6.4216 mln tonnes a year earlier. China’s soybean imports from Brazil totaled 40.7301 mln tonnes in Jan-Jul 2020, up 7.0115 mln tonnes or 20.79% from 33.7186 mln tonnes in the same period last year.

China imported only 38,300 tonnes of U.S. soybeans in July, down 229,300 tonnes or 85.69% from 267,600 tonnes in the previous month and down 873,600 tonnes or 95.80% from 911,900 tonnes in July 2019. China’s soybean imports from the U.S. totaled 9.2759 mln tonnes in Jan-Jul 2020, up 2.5339 mln tonnes or 37.58% from 6.742 mln tonnes in the same period last year.

Soybean arrivals at domestic ports are 152 vessels or 9.991 mln tonnes in August, latest survey by Cofeed showed. Soybean arrivals are forecast to be 137 vessels or 9.012 mln tonnes in September, 8.5 mln tonnes in October, 8 mln tonnes in November, and 8.1 mln tonnes in December. In this case, China’s soybean imports will amount to 97.1387 mln tonnes in 2019/20 (Oct-Sept), up 14.3438 mln tonnes or 17.32% from 82.7949 mln tonnes in 2018/19, which is also surveyed by Cofeed.

III. Carryover soybean stocks in China

China’s soybean stocks continue increasing in August amid huge imports, but the increment is smaller as soybean crush remains at a high level. By the end of August, imported soybean stocks in China totaled 7,402,200 tonnes, up 7,300 tonnes or 0.09% from 7,394,900 tonnes in July and up by 15.24% from 6,423,000 tonnes of the same period last year. It is expected that soybean stocks will gradually climb up as a result of huge amount of arrivals in later period. Domestic soybean stocks usually decreased gradually from September in previous years, but China has purchased much more U.S. soybeans this year as a part of the trade deal, so it is necessary to focus on soybean crush.

IV. August Soybean Crush Margins in China