According to Cofeed, on the week as of Sept 4, details of soybean stocks and soybean meal stocks and outstanding contracts in coastal regions are as follows:

Soybean: Imported soybean inventories increase in coastal China this week, as soybean crush falls to 1.95 mln tonnes and as soybeans are going into mills after a delay in unloading previously. In the week as of Sept 4, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 6,479,400 tonnes, up 439,700 tonnes by 7.28% from 6,039,700 tonnes last week and up by 20.61% from 5,372,000 tonnes of the same period last year. Domestic soybean stocks usually decreased gradually from September in previous years, but China has purchased much more U.S. soybeans this year as a part of the trade deal, so it is necessary to focus on soybean crush.

Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

Soybean meal: Soybean meal stocks are lower this week with a decline in soybean crush. In the week as of Sept 4, China’s soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 1,162,300 tonnes, down 40,300 tonnes by 3.35% from 1,202,600 tonnes last week but up by 47.16% from 789,800 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Soybean crush is predicted to stay high at 2 mln tonnes next week, so soybean meal stocks will not see a sharp decline and will stay at a high level.

Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

Outstanding contracts: The amount of soybean meal in outstanding contracts massively increases this week, as one more forward month is included in the week which spans from August to September. In the week as of Sept 4, outstanding contracts in mills in domestic coastal regions hold 6,376,800 tonnes not delivered, up 2,440,000 tonnes by 61.98% from 3,936,800 tonnes last week and up by 43.86% from 4,432,500 tonnes of the same period last year.

Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years