I. Soybean

 

Price

 

Domestic soybean: Domestic soybeans are to go marketing in huge quantities in about ten days. The trade of old soybeans will come to an end and downstream buyers become cautious now, so that traders have to undercut prices to clear stocks, which is bearish to the market. However, high-quality soybeans are almost out of stock. In addition, non-GM soybean prices have no prominent advantage at ports, which is also good to domestic soybean market. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, domestic soybean market is predicted to keep range-bound next week. 

 

Imported soybeans: Port authorities are still strict about the flow of GM-soybeans, which holds up shipments there. Meanwhile, while non-GM soybeans are in huge supplies, old domestic soybean prices are decreasing and new domestic soybeans are going marketing, so that imported soybean prices have no prominent advantage now. In addition, buyers are not active now due to low demand. China continues buying U.S. and Brazilian soybeans. This will probably amplify the market supply, and without the support of bulk demand, it will further bring negative sentiment to the market. Overall, imported soybean market is predicted to steady with a slight decline next week due to dismal demand, and participants can keep an eye on domestic commodity inspection and demand.

 

China's Soybean Weekly Price（CNY/Tonne）
Region		Grade	This week	Last week	Variation
Northeast China	Heilongjiang	Domestic, GB Grade 3	4,860	4,900	-40
	Inner Mongolia	Domestic, GB Grade 3	N/A	5,100
	Heilongjiang	Imported, Russia	N/A	4,620
East China	Jiangsu	Domestic soybean	6,800	6,800	0
	Shandong	Imported, Argentina	N/A	N/A
		Imported, Brazil	N/A	N/A
		Imported, Uruguay	4500	N/A
North China	Tianjin	Non-GM,Ethiopia	N/A	N/A
		Non-GM, Ukraine	N/A	N/A
		Non-GM,  Canada	5200	5150	50
		GM, PNW	N/A	N/A
		GM, U.S. GULF	N/A	N/A
National average		Domestic soybean	4,860	4,900	-40
		Imported soybean	3,530	3,530	0

 

 

 

 

Crush: Soybean crush continues rising this week (Sept 12-18) as millers seek to maintain high operation rates ahead of the Mid-autumn Festival and the National Day holidays. Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 2,183,650 tonnes (meal 1,725,084 tonnes and oil 414,894 tonnes), up 212,000 tonnes or 10.75% from 1,971,650 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 62.87%, up 6.11% from 56.76% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to increase to around 2.19 mln tonnes next week and fall to 1.97 mln tonnes that following week due to the coming of the holidays.  

 

Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 8.95 mln tonnes in September at current utilization rate, above 8.9128 mln tonnes in the previous month and also far above 7.5597 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year.

 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 88,024,614 tonnes in the soybean crop year of 2019/20 (from Oct 1st, 2019), up 5,141,979 tonnes or 6.20% from 82,882,635 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 65,995,100 tonnes, up 6,263,865 tonnes or 10.49% from 59,731,235 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019.

 

 

Inventory: Imported soybean inventories drop in domestic coastal regions this week, as weekly soybean crush rises to a historical high of 2.18 mln tonnes. In the week as of Sept 18, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 6,319,800 tonnes, down 288,200 tonnes by 4.36% from 6,608,000 tonnes last week and up by 33.84% from 4,721,800 tonnes of the same period last year. Domestic soybean stocks usually decreased gradually from September in previous years, but China has purchased much more U.S. soybeans this year as a part of the trade deal, so it is necessary to focus on soybean crush.

 

 

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 37 cargoes with 2.421 mln tonnes this week, a total of 77 cargoes with 5.029 mln tonnes for September so far. The import is predicted to be 137 cargoes or 9.012 mln tonnes for September, 8.5 mln tonnes for October, 8 mln tonnes for November, 8.1 mln tonnes for December, and 7.5 mln tonnes for January. If so, China’s soybean imports will amount to 96.7898 mln tonnes in 2019/20 (Oct-Sept). Statistics will be updated every week on account of fresh buying and renewed shipments.  

 

II. Soybean Meal

 

Price: Domestic soybean meal prices continue rising this week (Sept 14-18). As of this Friday, prices settle up 80-120 CNY at 3,070-3,140 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

 

China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price  (CNY/Tonne)
Region		This week	Last week	Variation
Northeast China	Jilin	3,240	3,150	90
North China	Tianjin	3,130	3,070	60
	Hebei	3,140	3,060	80
Central China	Hubei	3,110	3,030	80
	Henan	3,220	3,170	50
East China	Shandong	3,090	2,990	100
	Jiangsu	3,085	2,970	115
	Zhejiang	3,070	2,990	80
	Shanghai	3,040	2,960	80
	Fujian	3,090	2,990	100
	Anhui	3,130	3,010	120
South China	Guangdong	3,080	2,970	110
	Guangxi	3,070	3,010	60
National average		3,094	3,008	86

 

 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks continue declining this week, as buyers are picking up soybean meal ahead of the Mid-autumn Festival and the National Day holidays at a brisker pace than ever before. In the week as of Sept 18, China’s soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 997,200 tonnes, down 69,300 tonnes by 6.50% from 1,066,500 tonnes last week but up by 30.13% from 766,300 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Soybean crush is predicted to stay high at 2.19 mln tonnes next week, which may slow down the reduction in soybean meal stocks.

 

 

III. Soybean Oil

 

Price: Domestic soybean oil prices continue the uptrend this week (Sept 14-18). As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 7,530-7,610 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions, mostly up 520-600 CNY/tonne. The overall nationwide price index moves to 7,560 CNY/tonne, a weekly rise of 550 CNY or 7.85% from 7,010 CNY/tonne in the previous week.

 

China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (CNY/Tonne)
Region		Grade	This week	Last week	Variation
South China	Guangzhou	GB Grade 1	7600-7610	7000-7020	590-600
		GB Grade 3	N/A	N/A
North China	Qinhuangdao, Hebei	GB Grade 1	N/A	7,000
		GB Grade 3	N/A	6,900
	Tianjin	GB Grade 1	7,630	6,970	660
		GB Grade 3	N/A	N/A
East China	Rizhao, Shandong	GB Grade 1	7,550	6,980	570
		GB Grade 3	N/A	N/A
	Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu	GB Grade 1	7590-7600	7010-7020	580
		GB Grade 3	N/A	N/A
National average		GB Grade 1	7,560	7,010	550
		GB Grade 3	7,510	6,960	550

 

 

Inventory: Soybean oil stocks mount higher this week, as its output increases with higher soybean crush and as 29,000 tonnes of imported crude soybean oil has arrived at a Jiangsu mill and 10,000 tonnes at one Fujian mill. In the week ending Sept 18, China’s soybean oil commercial inventories total 1,330,850 tonnes, up 59,300 tonnes by 4.66% from 1,271,550 tonnes last week, up 95,350 tonnes by 7.71% from 1,235,500 tonnes a month earlier, and down 17,200 tonnes by 1.28% from 1,348,050 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year (2015-2019) average at the same period is 1,359,330 tonnes.