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China Soybean Weekly Report--as of Sept 25, 2020

2020-09-29 www.cofeed.com

I. Soybean

 

Price

 

Domestic soybean: Domestic consumption of bean products increases with cooler weather, so that downstream processors have been into production briskly and have greater demand for soybeans. It is a sign that the market is bullish and stalling sales, which will be positive to domestic soybeans. But domestic soybean prices may still see some declines as the short-term supply and demand gap will be filled after new soybeans come into huge supplies. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, domestic soybean market is predicted to keep range-bound next week. Participants can keep an eye on farmers’ sales sentiment.

 

Imported soybeans: Port soybean shipments are limited as port authorities are carrying out strict inspection on soybean flows. Meanwhile, non-GM soybeans are in huge supplies but in lower demand, as the market also turns the demand to domestic soybeans which are going marketing now and have an improvement in quality. In addition, China is snapping up U.S. soybeans, and the USDA has reported sales to China for 14 straight workdays. Domestic market for imported soybeans will be negative if there is a lack of bulk demand. Overall, the market is predicted to steady with a slight decline next week due to dismal demand, and participants can keep an eye on domestic commodity inspection and demand.

 

China's Soybean Weekly Price（CNY/tonne）

Region

Grade

This week

Last week

Variation

Northeast China

Heilongjiang

Domestic, GB Grade 3

4,900

4,860

40

Inner Mongolia

Domestic, GB Grade 3

N/A

N/A

  

Heilongjiang

Imported, Russia

4,600

N/A

  

East China

Jiangsu

Domestic soybean

6,150

6,800

-650

Shandong

Imported, Argentina

N/A

N/A

  

Imported, Brazil

N/A

N/A

  

Imported, Uruguay

N/A

4500

  

North China

Tianjin

Non-GM,Ethiopia

N/A

N/A

  

Non-GM, Ukraine

5100

N/A

  

Non-GM,  Canada

4950-5200

5200

50

GM, PNW

N/A

N/A

  

GM, U.S. GULF

N/A

N/A

  

National average

Domestic soybean

4,900

4,860

40

Imported soybean

3,530

3,530

0

 

说明: C:\Users\ADMINI~1\AppData\Local\Temp\1601345867(1).jpg

 

说明: C:\Users\ADMINI~1\AppData\Local\Temp\1601345979(1).jpg

 

说明: C:\Users\ADMINI~1\AppData\Local\Temp\1601345717(1).jpg

 

Crush: This week (Sept 19-25), with massive soybean arrivals at ports and in order to satisfy the demand ahead of the National Day holidays, some oil mills are operation at full capacity and several mills also resume soybean crush after years of suspension, so operation rates for soybean crush continues climbing, sending the crush to hit a fresh single-week high. Specifically, soybean crush at domestic mills totals 2,273,250 tonnes (meal 1,795,868 tonnes and oil 431,918 tonnes), up 89,600 tonnes or 4.10% from 2,183,650 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 65.45%, up 2.58% from 62.87% in the previous week. As the next two weeks will fall on the eight-day National Day holidays, the crush is predicted to be 1.90 mln tonnes and 1.53 mln tonnes, respectively.

 

Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 8.911 mln tonnes in September at current utilization rate, basically flat at 8.9128 mln tonnes in the previous month and also far above 7.5597 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year.

 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 90,297,864 tonnes in the soybean crop year of 2019/20 (from Oct 1st, 2019), up 5,600,079 tonnes or 6.61% from 84,697,785 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 68,268,350 tonnes, up 6,721,965 tonnes or 10.92% from 61,564,385 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019.

 

 

Inventory:  Imported soybean inventories continue reducing in domestic coastal regions this week, as weekly soybean crush hits another fresh single-week high of 2.27 mln tonnes. In the week as of Sept 25, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 6,248,100 tonnes, down 717,000 tonnes by 1.13% from 6,319,800 tonnes last week and up by 52.48% from 4,097,400 tonnes of the same period last year. Domestic soybean stocks usually decreased gradually from September in previous years, but China has purchased much more U.S. soybeans this year as a part of the trade deal, so it is necessary to focus on soybean crush.

 

说明: 1601280150(1)

 

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 35 cargoes with 2.286 mln tonnes this week, a total of 115 cargoes with 7.496 mln tonnes for September so far. The import is predicted to be 137 cargoes or 9.012 mln tonnes for September, 8.663 mln tonnes for October, 8 .3 mln tonnes for November, 8.1 mln tonnes for December, and 7.5 mln tonnes for January. If so, China’s soybean imports will amount to 96.7898 mln tonnes in 2019/20 (Oct-Sept). Statistics will be updated every week on account of fresh buying and renewed shipments.  

 

China’s Customs:

 

China's Soybean Imports by Country (Aug, 2020)

Country/
Region

Aug, 2020

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

Qty.
(0,000 tonnes)

Unit Price
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(0,000 tonnes)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(0,000 tonnes)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Ethiopia

0.43

496

0.02

-2

0.43

-

Kazakhstan

0.07

459

-0.1

5

0.07

-

China

0

-

-0.01

-

0

-

Russia

10.65

375

4.63

47

6.5

31

Ukraine

0.88

512

-0.45

19

0.54

83

Argentina

97.75

381.00 

-55.49

6

32.24

-12

Brazil

814.91

376

-2.87

1

146.48

-9

Uruguay

15.66

367

-7.54

3

-25.69

-15

Canada

3.47

535

0.44

36

2.73

-34

U.S.

16.64

380

12.81

-40

-150.86

-14

Benin

0

-

-0.11

-

0

-

Total

960.45

378

-48.69

3

12.43

-9
 

 

II. Soybean Meal

 

Price: Domestic soybean meal prices ease this week (Sept 21-25). As of this Friday, prices settle down 30-70 CNY at 3,000-3,070 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

 

China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price  (CNY/Tonne)

Region

This week

Last week

Variation

Northeast China

Jilin

3,200

3,240

-40

North China

Tianjin

3,070

3,130

-60

Hebei

3,080

3,140

-60

Central China

Hubei

3,090

3,110

-20

Henan

3,170

3,220

-50

East China

Shandong

3,030

3,090

-60

Jiangsu

2,980

3,085

-105

Zhejiang

3,020

3,070

-50

Shanghai

3,000

3,040

-40

Fujian

3,020

3,090

-70

Anhui

3,050

3,130

-80

South China

Guangdong

3,010

3,080

-70

Guangxi

3,030

3,070

-40

National average

3,031

3,094

-63

 

 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks mount higher this week as soybean crush hits another fresh single-week high. In the week as of Sept 25, China’s soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 1,035,400 tonnes, up 12,200 tonnes by 1.19% from 1,023,200 tonnes last week but up by 53.55% from 674,300 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As soybean crush is predicted to fall to around 1.90 mln tonnes next week and 1.53 mln tonnes that following week due to the National Day holidays, soybean meal stocks will probably only have small rises in the short term.

 

说明: 1601280206(1)

 

China’s Customs:

 

China's Soybean Meal Imports by Country (Aug, 2020)

Country/
Region

Aug, 2020

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

Qty.
(tonne)

Unit Price
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Denmark

2075

825

-900

3

1275

-13

U.S.

0

-

0

-

0

-

Netherlands

0

-

0

-

0

-

China

0

-

0

-

0

-

India

2386.85

575

-737.28

9

2386.85

-

Russia

3149.44

540

-1522.27

39

3149.44

-

Total Qty.

7611.29

629

-3159.55

20

6811.29

-209

 

China's Soybean Meal Exports by Country (Aug, 2020)

Country/
Region

This Month

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

Qty.
(tonne)

Unit Price
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Japan

61573.80

356.37

-136525.66

-0.77

-1123.79

-26.65

Italy

1127.33

666.05

-688.32

14.32

148.67

96.18

Vietnam

775.00

649.90

-141.93

8.02

381.00

-25.00

Sweden

771.86

631.95

-

-

178.11

25.70

Denmark

688.86

640.56

292.56

61.88

-3154.77

55.96

Mongolia

507.81

476.99

328.79

2.13

442.85

53.55

Netherlands

315.00

694.08

-2875.23

-3.12

-2464.32

117.73

North Korea

239.02

440.00

-1876.52

47.27

-2271.36

-23.66

Others

98.28

829.13

-4480.27

341.82

-28305.40

286.95

Total

66096.96

374.82

-145194.71

5.08

-36169.01

-71.46

 

III. Soybean Oil

 

Price: Domestic soybean oil prices plunge this week (Sept 21-25). As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 7,150-7,280 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions, mostly down 270-400 CNY/tonne. The overall nationwide price index is 7,200 CNY/tonne, a weekly decline of 360 CNY or 4.76% from 7,560 CNY/tonne in the previous week.

 

China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (CNY/Tonne)

Region

Grade

This week

Last week

Variation

South China

Guangzhou

GB Grade 1

7260-7280

7600-7610

330-340

GB Grade 3

N/A

N/A

  

North China

Qinhuangdao, Hebei

GB Grade 1

N/A

N/A

  

GB Grade 3

N/A

N/A

  

Tianjin

GB Grade 1

7150-7160

7,630

470-480

GB Grade 3

N/A

N/A

  

East China

Rizhao, Shandong

GB Grade 1

7,200

7,550

-350

GB Grade 3

N/A

N/A

  

Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu

GB Grade 1

7,190

7590-7600

580

GB Grade 3

N/A

N/A

  

National average

GB Grade 1

7,180

7,560

-380

GB Grade 3

7,130

7,510

-380

 

 

Inventory: Given that soybean crush has hit a fresh single-week high, the growth in soybean oil stockpiles is unexpectedly small. The main reasons are as follows. Second, the demand for soybean oil is increasing as its rival rapeseed oil is in low stocks and high prices; third, the consumption of soybean oil in feed also sees a sharp rise; fourth, mid-to-downstream buyers are stocking up briskly ahead of the Golden Week holidays in particular with small-to-medium-sized packaged oil, and many domestic companies have also purchased packaged soybean oil for employees as a corporate welfare for the holidays, which also count for a big proportion of market share.

 

In the week ending Sept 25, China’s soybean oil commercial inventories total 1,336,490 tonnes, up 5,640 tonnes by 0.42% from 1,330,850 tonnes last week, up 66,490 tonnes by 5.24% from 1,270,000 tonnes a month earlier, and down 12,660 tonnes by 0.94% from 1,349,150 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year (2015-2019) average at the same period is 1,333,600 tonnes. 

 

说明: 1601278826(1)

 

China’s Customs:

 

China's Soybean Oil Imports by Country (Aug, 2020)

Country/Region

This Month

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

Qty.
(tonne)

Unit Price
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Argentina

40000

675.32 

12000

-82.78 

25000

-25.23 

U.S.

0.003

53000.00 

0.003

-

-0.007

-

Brazil

20000

660.31 

-84560

-60.59 

-50698.021

-33.97 

Ukraine

15178.674

796.06 

2792.497

1.87 

-865.304

77.86 

Belarus

5923.099

788.41 

-7125.986

-99.01 

2005.499

98.02 

Russia

41028.78

785.99 

20694.49

-24.78 

23662.6

65.46 

Thailand

0

0

0

-

0

-

Italy

0

0

0

-

0

-

South Korea

0

0

0

-

0

-

North Korea

0

0

0

-

0

-

Vietnam

143.074

1009.25 

142.666

-574.09 

64.013

3.04 

Taiwan, China

105.13

782.76 

-105.22

0.95 

105.13

-

Malaysia

0

0

0

-

0

-

Netherlands

0

0

0

-

-13.535

-

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0

0

0

-

0

-

Sweden

0

0

-45.51

-

-45.51

-

India

0.008

10000.00 

0.008

-

0.008

-

Canada

0

0

0

-

0

-

Paraguay

0

0

0

-

0

-

Hong Kong, China

0

0

0

-

0

-

France

0

0

0

-

0

-

Japan

0.2

3055.00 

0.2

-

0.199

-

Singapore

0

0

0

-

0

-

Austria

0

0

0

-

0

-

Spain

2

2199.00 

2

-

1.987

-

Turkey

1361.32

723.29 

-680.495

-

1361.32

723.29 

Serbia

0

0

-570.76

-

0

-

Greece

0

0

0

-

0

-

Kazakhstan

663

780.00 

459

-

413

47.14 

Israel

0

0

0

-

0

-

Germany

0

0

0

-

-0.266

-

TPKM

0

0

0

-

0

-

Poland

0

0

0

-

0

-

Lithuania

0

0

0

-

0

-

Total

124405.29

731.11 

-56997.11

-23.22 

991.115

28.61 

TPKM: Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu

 

China's Soybean Oil Exports by Country (Aug, 2020)

Country/Region

This Month

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

Qty.
(tonne)

Unit Price
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Qty. Var.
(tonne)

Price Var.
(USD/tonne)

Japan

0.007

1000.00

0.007

-

0.007

1000.00

Singapore

476.68

1156.41

159.72

57.50

135.11

122.94

Myanmar

0

0

0

-

0

-

North Korea

2517.78

1022.66

-5128.54

13.59

-9157.442

-31.06

HK, China

2300.07

742.12

-3538.9

12.17

-440.078

23.39

Macao China

46.92

920.74

-15.936

20.92

37.42

-178.84

Taiwan, China

0

0

0

-

0

-

Maldives

0

0

0

-

0

-

South Korea

69.211

1240.25

69.211

-

57.568

138.64

Malaysia

791.2

728.70

380.92

-2.99

-144.74

13.04

Vietnam

41.45

865.72

-61.51

132.92

-321.35

161.99

Angola

0

0

0

-

0

-

Niger

0

0

0

-

0

-

Mongolia

71.002

1009.23

32.345

-2.67

-8.059

3.01

Mozambique

0

0

0

-

0

-

Pakistan

0

0

0

-

0

-

Cook Islands

0

0

0

-

0

-

Sierra Leone

0

0

0

-

0

-

Bahamas

0

0

0

-

0

-

Bangladesh

0

0

0

-

0

-

Philippines

0

0

0

-

0

-

Italy

0

0

0

-

0

-

Australia

16.56

1680.56

-18.8

-9.24

16.56

-

Canada

0

0

-40

-

-40

-

New Zealand

0

0

0

-

0

-

Zimbabwe

0

0

0

-

0

-

Nigeria

0

0

0

-

0

-

Tunisia

0

0

0

-

-0.05

-

Venezuela

0

0

0

-

0

-

Papua New Guinea

0

0

0

-

-2.36

-

U.S.

10.49

1425.17

10.49

-

10.49

-

Ethiopia

0

0

0

-

0

-

Indonesia

0

0

0

-

0

-

Djibouti

0

0

0

-

0

-

Sao Tome and Principe

0

0

0

-

0

-

Total

6341.35

897.11

-8151.01

7.24

-27866.492

41.89

 

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