I. Soybean

Crush: It is China’s National Day holidays this week (Oct 3-9), so operation rates have fallen to a low level. Specifically, soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,387,550 tonnes (meal 1,096,165 tonnes and oil 263,635 tonnes), down 486,050 tonnes or 25.94% from 1,873,600 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 39.95%, down 13.99% from 53.94% in the previous week. As crushers gradually pick up operation rates after holidays, the  crush is predicted to be 2.04 mln tonnes and 2.12 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, respectively.

In Week 40 (Sept 26-Oct 2), China’s soybean crush totals 1,873,600 tonnes (meal 1,480,144 tonnes and oil 355,984 tonnes), down 399,650 tonnes or 17.58% from 2,273,250 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 53.94%, down 10.51% from 64.45% in the previous week.

In the crop year of 2019/20 (from Oct 1st, 2019), China’s soybean crush totals 91,636,150 tonnes, up 6,443,065 tonnes or 7.56% from 85,193,085 tonnes of the same period last year.

In the crop year of 2020/21 (from Oct 1st, 2020), China’s soybean crush totals 1,922,814 tonnes, down 31,986 tonnes or 1.64% from 1,954,800 tonnes a year earlier.

In the calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), China’s soybean crush amounts to 71,529,500 tonnes, up 7,533,015 tonnes or 11.77% from 63,996,485 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019.

Inventory: Imported soybean inventories are slightly higher in coastal regions this week, as soybean crush falls to 1.38 mln tonnes. In the week as of Oct 9, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 5,963,500 tonnes, up 267,400 tonnes by 4.69% from 5,696,100 tonnes last week and up by 45.88% from 4,087,900 tonnes of the same period last year. Domestic soybean stocks usually decreased gradually from September in previous years, but China has purchased much more U.S. soybeans this year as a part of the trade deal, so it is necessary to focus on soybean crush.

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 21 cargoes with 1.378 mln tonnes this week, a total of 25 cargoes with 1.64 mln tonnes for October so far. The import is predicted to be 133 cargoes or 8.663 mln tonnes for October, 8.5 mln tonnes for November, 8.1 mln tonnes for December, and 7.5 mln tonnes for January. If so, China’s soybean imports will amount to 96.7898 mln tonnes in 2019/20 (Oct-Sept). Statistics will be updated every week on account of fresh buying and renewed shipments. 

II. Soybean Meal

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks fractionally decline this week as soybean crush drops drastically. In the week as of Oct 9, China’s soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 939,600 tonnes, down 21,300 tonnes by 2.22% from 960,900 tonnes last week but up by 78.93% from 525,100 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As soybean crush is predicted to pick up to 2.04 mln tonnes next week, soybean meal stocks will probably stop declining.

III. Soybean Oil

Inventory: In spite of a sharp decline in soybean crush, many millers are not delivering soybean oil during the National Day holidays, so soybean oil stocks show a slight increase this week. In the week ending Oct 9, China’s soybean oil commercial inventories total 1,344,100 tonnes, up 7,610 tonnes by 0.57% from 1,336,490 tonnes in week 39, up 71,100 tonnes by 5.58% from 1,273,000 tonnes a month earlier, and down 9,530 tonnes by 0.7% from 1,353,630 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year (2015-2019) average at the same period is 1,387,500 tonnes.