Today (Oct 19), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell last Friday as more consistent rains were forecast to benefit soybean planting in northern Brazil and as the bull reduced their positions after profit-taking. Meal futures fluctuate to edge down on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 CNY to 3,190-3,260 CNY/tonne today in coastal region, attracting some low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3260, Shandong 3230-3260, Jiangsu 3190-3260, Dongguan 3190-3220, and Guangxi 3240-3270.)

China’s production of hog feed rose 30% year over year in September, as there has been a recovery in pig farming sector. And soybean meal itself also makes up a big proportion in feed formula. Hence, soybean meal stocks declined for a third consecutive week by 5% to 890,000 tonnes in coastal China. Moreover, oil mills have a lot of outstanding contracts in hand. These are supporting soybean meal prices in China. However, soybean arrivals at domestic ports remain substantial, and soybean crush has returned to a very high level. Meanwhile, domestic farmers usually scale down aquaculture from October, which will lower down demand for feed. Currently, crushers have begun to hurry up deliveries in Guangdong Province, which will limit the rise in meal prices. Overall, soybean meal prices will probably fluctuate and keep strengthening in the near term. Participants can keep an eye on the weather in South America.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean ended lower on last Friday. But rapeseed meal futures on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange go down with fluctuations today. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles at 2,410-2,520 CNY/tonne with a fluctuation of 10-20 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. Soybean arrival at ports is huge in quantity, and soybean crush rises by 50% to 2.08 mln tonnes. Besides, aquaculture is gradually entering into an off season, weighing on rapeseed meal price. But rapeseed crush still stays at low levels due to limited rapeseed imports amid tensions between Ottawa and Beijing. Although rapeseed meal stock has increased to 5,000 tonnes, it falls by 78% compared with the same period last year. And many contracts of soybean meal remain to be fulfilled due to fast selling, which may shore up meals price. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, short-term rapeseed meal market is likely to move with fluctuations.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,500-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,600-11,700 CNY/tonne. Domestic port inventories are not pressuring the market, and foreign market will hopefully keep firm and rising; hence, some domestic traders still have sentiment for propping up fishmeal prices. This is supporting domestic fishmeal market. However, aquaculture is entering into the off-season in China as the weather gets cool, so its feed demand for fishmeal is lessening and feed manufacturers tend to wait on the sidelines. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with a slight rise in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 47,020 tonnes, Fuzhou 12,030 tonnes, Shanghai 19,100 tonnes, Tianjin 520 tonnes, Dalian 4,120 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,040 tonnes and 3,840 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Nov/Dec shipments are quoted higher by 20 USD at 1,350 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,580 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,260 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,490 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices partly stay stable and partly rise by 30-100 CNY/tonne in some regions today. The production of pig feed in September increased by 30% compared to the corresponding time last year as livestock breeding is recovering gradually, and soybean meal accounts more in feed formula. Besides, soybean meal inventory in coastal regions has fallen for the third consecutive week, totaling 890,000 tonnes with a decline of 5% from the previous week. And many contracts remain to be fulfilled at the moment, which boosts cottonseed meal price. Moreover, manufacturers intend to prop up price due to pricey cottonseed. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal price may follow soybean meal to keep an upward trend with fluctuations.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.70)