Today (Oct 20), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures rose on Monday on good exports data and as Brazilian soybean planting were only 7.9% completed under dry weather to hit the slowest pace in a decade. Meal futures also slightly rise on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily go up by 10-30 CNY to 3,210-3,280 CNY/tonne today in coastal region, attracting some low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3280, Shandong 3250-3270, Jiangsu 3210-3260, Dongguan 3210-3270, and Guangxi 3250-3280.)

China’s production of hog feed rose 30% year over year in September, as there has been a recovery in pig farming sector. And soybean meal itself also makes up a big proportion in feed formula owing to its higher value-to-price ratio. Hence, soybean meal stocks declined for a third consecutive week in China. Moreover, millers are selling at a brisk pace and have a lot of outstanding contracts, so that they have strong sentiment for higher prices. However, soybean supplies are adequate in China, while domestic farmers usually scale down aquaculture from October. Currently, crushers have begun to hurry up deliveries in Guangdong Province, which will limit the rise in meal prices. Overall, short-term soybean meal prices will probably fluctuate and keep strengthening on bullish factors. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on dips, but not to chase after excessively higher prices.

Imported rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean ended higher on Monday. Meal futures in China also go up. And rapeseed meal price in coastal regions settles up 50-60 CNY/tonne at 2,460-2,580 CNY/tonne, seeing a light trading. Rapeseed crush still stays at low levels due to limited rapeseed imports amid tensions between Ottawa and Beijing. In this case, rapeseed meal stocks in coastal regions fall by 78% compared with the same period last year. And imported meal pellets only amount to 50,000 tonnes, down by 53% from a year earlier. On the other side, soybean meal inventory has declined for three weeks in a row due to fast selling. These have together boosted rapeseed meal market to stay strong in the near term. Besides, soybean crush may further rise to an extremely high level of 2.10 mln tonnes this week amid huge imports. Furthermore, aquaculture is gradually entering into an off season, which may dampen buyers’ enthusiasm in chasing up price.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,500-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,600-11,700 CNY/tonne. Domestic port inventories are not pressuring the market, and foreign market will hopefully keep firm and rising; hence, some domestic traders still have sentiment for propping up fishmeal prices. This is supporting domestic fishmeal market. However, aquaculture is entering into the off-season in China as the weather gets cool, so its feed demand for fishmeal is lessening and feed manufacturers tend to wait on the sidelines. Overall, domestic fishmeal prices are expected to steady with a slight rise in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Huangpu 48,020 tonnes, Fuzhou 12,080 tonnes, Shanghai 19,150 tonnes, Tianjin 560 tonnes, Dalian 4,520 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,060 tonnes and 3,870 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Nov/Dec shipments are quoted steadily at 1,350 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,580 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,260 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,490 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable today. U.S. soybean futures closed higher on Monday as the export data was good and soybean sowing in Brazil had only finished 7.9% due to drought weather. Meal futures on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange also edge up today, and spot soybean meal price in coastal regions steadily increases by 10-30 CNY/tonne. Besides, the production of pig feed in September rose by 30% from a year earlier as livestock breeding is recovering gradually. And soybean meal accounts more in feed formula due to its higher cost performance compared to mixed meal. Moreover, soybean meal stocks have fallen for the third consecutive week, so crushing mills have strong intention to raise price. This has boosted meal price, and rapeseed meal price also goes up by 50 CNY/tonne today. Additionally, manufacturers intend to prop up cottonseed meal price due to pricey cottonseed. Therefore, it is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal market may follow soybean meal to fluctuate to go up.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.69)