Today is 05/07/2024
I. Soybean
Price
Domestic soybean: In the wake of late-week decline in soybean price, downstream buyers suffered losses in some previously signed contracts at high prices and chose to break orders, which spooks the sentiment in several regions. Moreover, it is almost an established fact that new domestic soybean will see a rise in production, so its supply may get loose as harvests propel. Besides, lower-than-expected purchasing price is also bearish to domestic soybean market. However, funds are flowing into grain market as the overall grain prices are rising this year. Add to that, most farmers are also hoarding stocks and expecting higher prices, and high-protein soybeans are popular in southern markets, which also help limit the declines. Overall, domestic soybean market may decline slightly next week. Farmers’ sales sentiment will be closely watched.
Imported soybean: Prices are almost not available and shipments also come to a standstill at ports this week due to strict commodity inspections and as some offers are higher than domestic soybean prices. The supply of imported non-GM soybeans are decreasing, which is also supporting imported soybean market. However, port shipments are slow, and new domestic soybeans of improving quality and decreasing prices are on the market, so imported soybean market has no advantage now. Moreover, China is purchasing U.S. soybeans at a brisk pace, which will also increase the supply. Overall, imported soybean market is predicted to be little changed before the end of the port commodity inspections.
|
China's Soybean Weekly Price（CNY/Tonne） |
|||||
|
Region |
Grade |
This week |
Last week |
Variation |
|
|
Northeast China |
Heilongjiang |
Domestic, GB Grade 3 |
4940 |
4,680 |
260 |
|
Inner Mongolia |
Domestic, GB Grade 3 |
4800 |
4,560 |
240 |
|
|
Heilongjiang |
Imported, Russia |
N/A |
N/A |
||
|
East China |
Jiangsu |
Domestic soybean |
6900 |
6,700 |
200 |
|
Shandong |
Imported, Argentina |
N/A |
N/A |
||
|
Imported, Brazil |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
Imported, Uruguay |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
North China |
Tianjin |
Non-GM,Ethiopia |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
Non-GM, Ukraine |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
Non-GM, Canada |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
GM, PNW |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
GM, U.S. GULF |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
National average |
Domestic soybean |
4940 |
4,680 |
260 |
|
|
Imported soybean |
3530 |
3,530 |
0 |
||
Crush: As crushers continue picking up operation rates this week (Oct 17-23), soybean crush at domestic mills totals 2,197,250 tonnes (meal 1,735,828 tonnes and oil 417,478 tonnes), up 108,950 tonnes or 5.21% from 2,088,300 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 63.26%, up 3.14% from 60.12% in the previous week. Soybean crush is expected to stay at 2.16 mln tonnes and move to 2.20 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, respectively.
Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 8.71 mln tonnes in October at current utilization rate, lower than 9.1015 mln tonnes in the previous month but far above 6.6918 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year.
In the crop year of 2020/21 (from Oct 1st, 2020), China’s soybean crush totals 6,208,364 tonnes, up 775,814 tonnes or 14.28% from 5,432,550 tonnes a year earlier.
In the calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), China’s soybean crush amounts to 75,815,050 tonnes, up 8,340,815 tonnes or 12.36% from 67,474,235 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019.
Inventory: Imported soybean stockpiles continue reducing in coastal regions this week, as soybean crush climbs higher to 2.19 mln tonnes. In the week as of Oct 23, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 5,536,400 tonnes, down 336,300 tonnes by 5.73% from 5,872,700 tonnes last week and up by 66.80% from 3,319,000 tonnes of the same period last year. Domestic soybean stocks usually decreased gradually from September in previous years, but China has purchased much more U.S. soybeans this year as a part of the trade deal, so it is necessary to focus on whether soybean crush would stay high.
Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 35 cargoes with 2.309 mln tonnes this week, a total of 92 cargoes with 6.02 mln tonnes for October so far. The import is predicted to be 133 cargoes or 8.663 mln tonnes for October, 9.1 mln tonnes for November, 8.8 mln tonnes for December, and 7.7 mln tonnes for January. If so, China’s soybean imports will amount to 96.7898 mln tonnes in 2019/20 (Oct-Sept). Statistics will be updated every week on account of fresh buying and renewed shipments.
China’s Customs:
|
China's Soybean Imports by Country (Sept, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/ |
Sept, 2020 |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Ethiopia |
0.54 |
509 |
0.11 |
13 |
0.54 |
- |
|
Kazakhstan |
0.08 |
470 |
0.01 |
11 |
0.08 |
- |
|
China |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Russia |
7.21 |
403 |
-3.44 |
28 |
4.42 |
47 |
|
Ukraine |
0.37 |
487 |
-0.51 |
-25 |
0 |
83 |
|
Argentina |
100.37 |
373.00 |
2.62 |
-8 |
2.72 |
-3 |
|
Brazil |
724.51 |
381 |
-90.4 |
5 |
245.74 |
-11 |
|
Uruguay |
26.2 |
403 |
10.54 |
36 |
-33.35 |
18 |
|
Canada |
2.64 |
557 |
-0.83 |
22 |
-4.73 |
123 |
|
U.S. |
116.86 |
392 |
100.22 |
12 |
-56.16 |
7 |
|
Benin |
0.14 |
498 |
0.14 |
- |
0.14 |
- |
|
Total |
978.92 |
383 |
18.47 |
5 |
159.4 |
-5 |
II. Soybean Meal
Price: Domestic soybean meal prices fluctuate to rise this week (Oct 19-23). As of this Friday, prices settle up 10-40 CNY at 3,190-3,300 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions.
|
China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price (CNY/Tonne) |
||||
|
Region |
This week |
Last week |
Variation |
|
|
Northeast China |
Jilin |
3,430 |
3,440 |
-10 |
|
North China |
Tianjin |
3,290 |
3,290 |
0 |
|
Hebei |
3,290 |
3,290 |
0 |
|
|
Central China |
Hubei |
3,320 |
3,300 |
20 |
|
Henan |
3,400 |
3,390 |
10 |
|
|
East China |
Shandong |
3,235 |
3,240 |
-5 |
|
Jiangsu |
3,190 |
3,205 |
-15 |
|
|
Zhejiang |
3,210 |
3,200 |
10 |
|
|
Shanghai |
3,200 |
3,210 |
-10 |
|
|
Fujian |
3,250 |
3,230 |
20 |
|
|
Anhui |
3,310 |
3,290 |
20 |
|
|
South China |
Guangdong |
3,200 |
3,210 |
-10 |
|
Guangxi |
3,250 |
3,260 |
-10 |
|
|
National average |
3,247 |
3,241 |
6 |
|
Inventory: Soybean meal stocks arise this week as soybean crush continues climbing to a very high level. In the week as of Oct 23, China’s soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 921,500 tonnes, up 31,600 tonnes by 3.55% from 889,900 tonnes last week but up by 65.58% from 556,500 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As soybean crush is predicted to stay high at 2.16 mln tonnes next week but the demand and delivery for soybean meal is improving recently, soybean meal stocks are expected to show only slight growth.
China’s Customs:
|
China's Soybean Meal Imports by Country (Sept, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/ |
Sept, 2020 |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Denmark |
2900 |
782 |
825 |
-43 |
2500 |
-19 |
|
U.S. |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Netherlands |
55 |
622 |
55 |
- |
55 |
- |
|
China |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
India |
879.46 |
568 |
-1507.39 |
-7 |
879.46 |
- |
|
Russia |
2050.64 |
551 |
-1098.8 |
11 |
2050.64 |
- |
|
Serbia |
21 |
676 |
21 |
676 |
21 |
- |
|
Total Qty. |
5906.1 |
668 |
-1705.19 |
39 |
5506.1 |
-133 |
|
China's Soybean Meal Exports by Country (Sept, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/ |
This Month |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Japan |
51445.50 |
360.88 |
-10128.30 |
4.51 |
6789.64 |
-30.26 |
|
Myanmar |
3300.00 |
402.00 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Netherlands |
1143.16 |
692.79 |
828.16 |
-1.29 |
-1875.27 |
109.42 |
|
North Korea |
1000.00 |
485.29 |
760.98 |
45.29 |
-1264.24 |
21.25 |
|
Vietnam |
968.00 |
620.02 |
193.00 |
-29.89 |
414.20 |
-25.83 |
|
Denmark |
834.33 |
585.61 |
145.47 |
-54.94 |
-1331.77 |
10.12 |
|
Italy |
694.71 |
686.33 |
-432.62 |
20.28 |
-77.21 |
108.49 |
|
South Korea |
362.99 |
461.50 |
- |
- |
250.89 |
-139.97 |
|
Canada |
300.00 |
518.00 |
- |
- |
-10.00 |
-89.84 |
|
Mongolia |
271.68 |
492.93 |
-236.13 |
15.94 |
174.24 |
59.33 |
|
Others |
61.00 |
848.75 |
-809.14 |
194.54 |
-4555.96 |
252.44 |
|
Total |
60381.36 |
384.95 |
-5715.59 |
10.13 |
1814.52 |
-48.40 |
III. Soybean Oil
Price: Domestic soybean oil prices fluctuate this week (Oct 19-23). As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 7,460-7,610 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions, a rise of 110-260 CNY/tonne. The overall nationwide price index moves to 7,530 CNY/tonne, a weekly rise of 145 CNY or 1.96% from 7,385 CNY/tonne in the previous week.
|
China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (CNY/Tonne) |
|||||
|
Region |
Grade |
This week |
Last week |
Variation |
|
|
South China |
Guangzhou |
GB Grade 1 |
7610 |
7440 |
170 |
|
GB Grade 3 |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
North China |
Qinhuangdao, Hebei |
GB Grade 1 |
7,450 |
7,450 |
0 |
|
GB Grade 3 |
7,350 |
7,350 |
0 |
||
|
Tianjin |
GB Grade 1 |
7460-7480 |
7340-7360 |
120 |
|
|
GB Grade 3 |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
East China |
Rizhao, Shandong |
GB Grade 1 |
7,500 |
7,390 |
110 |
|
GB Grade 3 |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu |
GB Grade 1 |
7,510 |
7,390 |
120 |
|
|
GB Grade 3 |
N/A |
N/A |
|||
|
National average |
GB Grade 1 |
7,555 |
7,390 |
165 |
|
|
GB Grade 3 |
7,505 |
7,340 |
165 |
||
Inventory: Soybean oil stocks continue reducing this week, as buyers from various fields are stocking up soybean oil now and the consumption of soybean oil to replace its rivals and in feed has been increasing. And it is said millers in east China are waiting in line to ship out their cargoes at ports.. In the week ending Oct 23, China’s soybean oil commercial inventories total 1,272,600 tonnes, down 15,800 tonnes by 1.23% from 1,288,400 tonnes last week, down 61,900 tonnes by 4.64% from 1,334,500 tonnes a month earlier, and down 41,850 tonnes by 3.18% from 1,314,450 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year (2015-2019) average at the same period is 1,382,100 tonnes.
China’s Customs:
|
China's Soybean Oil Imports by Country (Sept, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/Region |
This Month |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Argentina |
46429.89 |
675.10 |
6429.89 |
-0.21 |
23929.89 |
32.19 |
|
U.S. |
20000.672 |
690.47 |
20000.669 |
-52309.53 |
20000.672 |
690.47 |
|
Brazil |
23700 |
668.12 |
3700 |
7.81 |
6200 |
25.21 |
|
Ukraine |
3691.206 |
790.67 |
-11487.468 |
-5.40 |
-10692.694 |
66.18 |
|
Belarus |
8709.495 |
890.00 |
2786.396 |
101.59 |
8709.495 |
890.00 |
|
Russia |
32572.438 |
852.90 |
-8456.342 |
66.91 |
-4199.562 |
148.77 |
|
Thailand |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
-0.11 |
-1545.45 |
|
Italy |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
South Korea |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
North Korea |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Vietnam |
71.708 |
1005.95 |
-71.366 |
-3.29 |
-7.312 |
-3.90 |
|
Taiwan, China |
315.68 |
848.77 |
210.55 |
66.01 |
315.68 |
848.77 |
|
Malaysia |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
-16.23 |
-1185.15 |
|
Netherlands |
3.8 |
3837.63 |
3.8 |
3837.63 |
3.8 |
3837.63 |
|
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Sweden |
46.25 |
2199.74 |
46.25 |
2199.74 |
46.25 |
2199.74 |
|
India |
0.006 |
11000.00 |
-0.002 |
1000.00 |
0.006 |
11000.00 |
|
Canada |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Paraguay |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Hong Kong, China |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
France |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Japan |
0 |
0 |
-0.2 |
-3055.00 |
0 |
- |
|
Singapore |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Austria |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Spain |
0 |
0 |
-2 |
-2199.00 |
0 |
- |
|
Turkey |
681.64 |
735.29 |
-679.68 |
12.00 |
681.64 |
735.29 |
|
Serbia |
310.68 |
845.65 |
310.68 |
845.65 |
310.68 |
845.65 |
|
Greece |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Kazakhstan |
0 |
0 |
-663 |
-780.00 |
0 |
- |
|
Israel |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Germany |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
TPKM |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Poland |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Lithuania |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Total |
136533.465 |
737.26 |
12128.175 |
6.15 |
45282.205 |
56.41 |
|
TPKM: Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu |
||||||
|
China's Soybean Oil Exports by Country (Sept, 2020) |
||||||
|
Country/Region |
This Month |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
|||
|
Qty. |
Unit Price |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
Qty. Var. |
Price Var. |
|
|
Japan |
0 |
0 |
-0.007 |
-1000.00 |
0 |
- |
|
Singapore |
159.2 |
1156.49 |
-317.48 |
0.08 |
-108.54 |
262.94 |
|
Myanmar |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
North Korea |
2706.64 |
951.41 |
188.86 |
-71.24 |
-6524.73 |
-100.67 |
|
HK, China |
2207.668 |
789.56 |
-92.402 |
47.43 |
-420.832 |
69.53 |
|
Macao China |
14.393 |
971.51 |
-32.527 |
50.78 |
4.893 |
-102.80 |
|
Taiwan, China |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Maldives |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
|
South Korea |
99.46 |
1143.39 |
30.249 |
-96.86 |
34.96 |
34.51 |
|
Malaysia |
208.62 |
752.22 |
-582.58 |
23.52 |
-463.69 |
10.41 |
|
Vietnam |
20.87 |
945.52 |
-20.58 |
79.80 |
20.87 |
945.52 |
|
Angola |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Niger |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Mongolia |
143.78 |
1007.62 |
72.778 |
-1.61 |
64.72 |
1.39 |
|
Mozambique |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Pakistan |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Cook Islands |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Sierra Leone |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Bahamas |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Bangladesh |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Philippines |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Italy |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Australia |
105.68 |
1671.39 |
89.12 |
-9.17 |
105.68 |
1671.39 |
|
Canada |
58.4 |
1010.29 |
58.4 |
1010.29 |
18.4 |
64.79 |
|
New Zealand |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Zimbabwe |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Nigeria |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Tunisia |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Venezuela |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Papua New Guinea |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
U.S. |
0 |
0 |
-10.49 |
-1425.17 |
-6.09 |
-1244.66 |
|
Ethiopia |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Indonesia |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Djibouti |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Sao Tome and Principe |
0 |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
- |
|
Total |
5724.71 |
906.11 |
-616.64 |
8.99 |
-7274.36 |
-59.30 |